 "Rohingya crisis: Security risk of accepting refugees is too great for India to ignore")
As the Rohingya crisis
shows no sign of abating , it has left Myanmar’s neighbours squirming at the prospect of lakhs of refugees coming into their territories. While Bangladesh has
taken the brunt of the crisis , India too has
40,000 Rohingyas to deal with. Bangladesh for its part has looked at India to take the lead in resolving the issue. Its High Commissioner to India, Syed Muazzem Ali, recently told
The Wire that India should “use its good offices to emphasise this point to the Myanmarese government, about the ground reality”. Ali also spoke with Hindustan Times, as he raised a point which has worried Indians as well: The security risk the refugees pose. He was quoted as saying, “I am more concerned about my own region but the presence of Rohingya refugees elsewhere could be a security risk for everybody else. It could be used even in your northeast India.” [caption id=“attachment_3280494” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] File image of Rohingya Muslims outside their makeshift shanties in Jammu. PTI[/caption] Bangladesh then is not making any secret of wanting India’s intervention in the matter. However, the security aspect it has raised is one which deserves a deeper look. India for its part is not disregarding the security interest. In an
affidavit before the Supreme Court (albeit one
still being finalised ), the Centre has taken the stand that the Rohingya Musims cannot stay in India as they are a threat to national security. The government further stated that some Rohingyas are linked to terror groups, and hence can not be allowed to stay. India’s stance on the Rohingyas is certainly not a new one as earlier Home Minister Rajnath Singh had called them a threat to national security and promised to deal with the issue with a firm hand, according to
The Times of India. In August, the home ministry had communicated to the states that illegal immigrants like the Rohingyas pose grave security challenges as they may be recruited by terror groups, according to PTI. It had then asked the states to identify and deport them. ‘India is ready for a two-and-a-half-front war’ India hardly has a lack of security problems it needs to deal with. In June, Indian Army chief General Bipin Rawat was quoted as saying, “Indian Army is fully ready for a two-and-a-half front war”, as reported in
The Indian Express. By this, he means the twin
threats at the Pakistan and China borders, with the half front being internal threats to India’s stability.
But what if an entirely new third front was to be added to the equation? Even Rawat would think twice before exuding confidence about a three-and-a-half-front war.
India’s worries in this case are backed up by intelligence reports. On Tuesday, a meeting was called by Nripendra Misra, the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, reported NDTV. It was attended by NSA Ajit Doval and the heads of intelligence agencies including the Research and Analysis Wing. The intel report which they reviewed concluded by saying, “In our assessment, penetration of Pakistan-based terrorist outfits among Rohingya Muslims community is a serious emerging threat, as the same would ultimately be used for targeting India.” The meeting focused on the alerts about links between Rohingya militant commanders in Myanmar and terror groups in Pakistan, including Hafiz Saeed’s Lashkar-e-Taiba. The NDTV report also raised other red flags for India as a Pakistani Al-Qaeda operative was reported to have visited Thailand in August to train Rohingya militants. There is also speculation that a Rohingya in Kashmir was the guide for terrorists who attacked a police compound in Pulwama, killing eight security personnel. Furthermore, it is to be noted that Jaish-e-Muhammad chief Masood Azhar and Lashkar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed, both terrorists who operate out of Pakistan and target India, have come out in support of the Rohingyas . This is further backed up by a report in The Indian Express which said, “India’s national security fears are based on intelligence reports linking the radical Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army to the Lashkar-e-Taiba; key individuals in ARSA, or its front organisations such as Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, are allegedly close to Hafiz Saeed. RSO has a Pakistan chapter, and the Jamaat-ud-Dawa front Falah-e-Insaniyat had a presence in Rohingya refugee camps in 2012.” Should the Rohingyas become a security threat, India will face a war on three fronts As of now, it is unclear what form the security threat from the Rohingyas will take, if any at all. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees says that they are settled in six locations in India - Jammu, Nuh in Haryana’s Mewat district, Delhi, Hyderabad, Jaipur and Chennai, according to The Indian Express. If they start acting against Indian interests in these locations, they could add to the internal threat and add to the half front that Rawat referred too. India could thus have to deal with a war on three fronts. However, India also faces insurgency in the Northeast region. It shares a 1,600-kilometre-long border with Myanmar from where the Rohingyas are fleeing. In fact, some Indian insurgent groups operate from Myanmar. If they join hands with the insurgents in the Northaast, that opens up a completely new front for India to deal with. This is a headache India would be keen to avoid. There is a moral and legal argument in favour of accepting the Rohingyas. However, India must also consider the security problems the Rohingyas could cause. India can then hardly be blamed for its unwillingness in opening its arms towards them. As _Firstpost_ pointed out earlier, India must show sensitivity and uphold the standards of humanitarianism, but that cannot come at the cost of national security and instability to our social fabric.
