NDA still has edge over UPA but nearly half won't vote for Narendra Modi govt in 2019, says ABP-CSDS survey

There's only one year more to go for the BJP-led regime before another test at the hustings. But is the country in a mood to reelect Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government?

Four years ago, the country had voted the present regime to power in the hopes of better days in all socio-economic-political spheres. But despite some strong structural reforms like GST, and gut-wrenching changes like demonetisation, the jury may still be out on how good the past four years have been.

File images of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi. PTI

File images of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi. PTI

There are more people in the country today who believe that the Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government does not merit another opportunity to govern India after the 2019 Lok Sabha election, an ABP News-CSDS Mood of the Nation survey has found.

According to the survey, almost 47 percent of the total 15,859 participants from 19 states are of the opinion that the Modi government does not deserve another chance in 2019. Around 39 percent thought it did deserve a second innings in power, with the rest being non-committal.

Results mimic 2013 mood

These results do not bode well for NDA, the surveyors said, as they are similar to those recorded for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in July 2013, nine months before the 2014 General elections.

"Back then, 39 percent had been against giving the UPA another chance, 31 percent had been in favour and 30 percent had been noncommittal," the survey said. When the results were out, the UPA was routed as the alliance managed to win only 60 seats.

As per the survey, 32 percent of voters have said they would vote for the BJP in the event of a snap Lok Sabha election. According to News18, at the start of the year, the same survey had found out that 34 percent of the voters would do so. This two percent drop in a five-month period is another indicator of a declining trend for Modi's government.

Strong anti-NDA sentiments among minorities

The survey also revealed that the country’s religious minorities harboured strong anti-Modi government sentiments. "About three-fourths of Muslims, three-fifths of Christians and well over half the Sikhs indicated that they do not wish to see the Modi government coming back to power next year," the survey found out.

While the Muslim disapproval of the Modi government, largely seen as a Hindu-base party, isn't a largely contested narrative in the public, what is surprising is that a sizeable section of Hindu voters also has an anti-government sentiment.

"The Hindu votes are nearly split down the middle on the question on whether the Modi regime should be given another chance with 44 percent exhibiting a pro-government stand and 42 percent taking an anti-government position,"

"Out of all Hindu communities, Dalits and Adivasis, who have also been victims of violence and atrocities, were found to be most vociferous in their opposition to the government at 55 percent and 43 percent respectively. Dominant OBC communities are also quite opposed (42 percent) to the present government," the survey found.

Advantage Congress in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh

The forthcoming Assembly elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh also reflect a similar view for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), if the results of the survey are to be considered.

The Congress is making substantial gains in Rajasthan as the BJP is lagging behind the Grand Old Party by five percent vote share, the survey has found.

"The Congress is likely to get 44 percent vote share and the BJP may only manage to get 39 percent of votes if elections to the 200-member Assembly were to be held today," the survey said.

Earlier this year, the Congress had won four out of six Assembly bypolls and two parliamentary bypolls in the state.

Meanwhile, in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is likely to get 49 percent vote share, BJP just 34 percent and others 17 percent if Assembly elections were held in the state today.

The BJP has had three consecutive governments in Madhya Pradesh and anti-incumbency could play a strong role in the election. Even in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress with a 49 percent vote share, is leading with a comfortable margin over the BJP with a 34 percent vote share.

Gandhi neck-and-neck with Modi

The survey also shows that an equal number of respondents (43 percent) like Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi now. While Gandhi seems to be gaining among his adversaries, Modi is losing out on his core supporter base.

The survey showed that 25 percent of the respondents feel they did not like Modi earlier but like him now. This number is 29 percent for Gandhi.

Meanwhile, 35 percent of the respondents who liked Modi earlier dislike him now. This number is significantly lower, at 22 percent, for Gandhi. Gandhi’s popularity, however, does not seem to be translating into support for the Congress.

With inputs from agencies


Updated Date: May 25, 2018 12:40 PM

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