NDA holds edge in 31 high-stakes Bihar seats, driven by JD(U) gains: News18 Mega Exit Poll

The News18 Mega Exit Poll analysis of key constituencies across both phases of the Bihar Assembly elections indicates a tight race, with the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] poised for notable gains that could cement the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) projected majority.

The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) — comprising the RJD, Congress, Left, and VIP — is striving to resist the NDA’s momentum, led by the BJP, JD(U), LJP (Chirag Paswan), HAM, and RLM.

Voting took place in 121 seats on November 6 and 122 seats on November 11, with results due on November 14.

Phase 1: JD(U) leads in high-stakes contests

In the first phase, the JD(U) appears to have taken the lead in several high-stakes constituencies.

Of the 16 key seats that went to polls, the party is projected to win seven — Bahadurpur, Bhorey (SC), Mahnar, Hasanpur, Hilsa, Harnaut, and Jagdishpur.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is expected to bag five seats, including Madhepura, Siwan, Garkha (SC), Maner, and Brahampur, while the BJP is projected to win four — Gaura Bauram, Darbhanga, Jale, and Kumhrar.

The exit poll suggests that the JD(U)’s performance could play a decisive role in cementing the NDA’s lead over the Mahagathbandhan in the 243-member Bihar Assembly.

Phase 2: BJP, JD(U) maintain edge

In the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP and JD(U) continued to assert dominance across key constituencies in the Tirhut, Koshi, Bhagalpur, and Magadh regions, while the RJD and its allies registered some crucial wins, according to the News18 Mega Exit Poll.

The BJP is projected to win four seats — Lauriya (Vinay Bihari), Harsidhi (SC) (Krishna Nandan Paswan), Chhatapur (Neeraj Kumar Singh), and Jamui (Shreyasi Singh).

The JD(U) is expected to secure three clear victories in Supaul (Bijendra Prasad Yadav), Kahalgaon (Shubhanand Mukesh), and Jhajha (Damodar Rawat), along with narrow leads in Sugauli and Phulparas.

Among the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) partners, the Congress is likely to win Araria (Abidur Rahman), and the CPI(ML)(L) is projected to take Balrampur (Mahboob Alam). The RJD is also seen holding a slight edge in Imamganj (Ritu Priya Chaudhary).

Meanwhile, the LJP is projected to win Bodh Gaya (Shyam Deo Paswan), and the AIMIM is expected to capture Baisi, rounding out a competitive second phase for Bihar’s major political players.

The results from 31 key constituencies across both phases align with the overall News18 Mega Exit Poll trends, indicating a clear swing in favour of the NDA.

The JD(U) has delivered a strong performance in its high-stakes contests, emerging as the leading party in the Phase 1 segment, while the BJP has maintained its dominance in major urban and semi-urban areas.

Although the RJD retained control over several of its traditional bastions, the data suggests it struggled to counter the combined strength and strategic advantage of the NDA alliance in crucial constituencies.

With inputs from agencies