Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping look beyond Doka La; ties might reset after Communist Party of China's national congress

The overhang of the Doka La confrontation was such that the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Xiamen on 5 September was seen purely in its context. While analysts on both sides heaved a sigh of relief, the considered wisdom was that Doka La will leave deep scars and that India-China relations will take a while to mend.

But the Indian delegation that has come back from Xiamen is fully upbeat about the outcome. Their understanding of how things went is that Beijing is willing to see beyond Doka La. The take away from the meeting was that China gave unambiguous signals that the relationship between the two Asian giants will find a new equilibrium after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to be held in Beijing beginning 18 October.

At the congress, Jinping is expected to get a second term as general secretary and firm up his grip on the party as many top politburo members will retire making way for new members.

The first hint of the coming change is the removal of two generals of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) — Feng Fenghui and Zhang Yang — from the list of attendees at the party congress. This is seen as the political leadership firming up its grip over the military and underscores Jinping’s determination to carry out political reforms in civilian and military establishments as a logical sequel to economic reforms.

In India’s context, this development is particularly encouraging. Though the removal of the PLA generals may not be directly linked to the Doka La stand-off, the perceived dissonance between China’s political authority and the military leadership has a direct bearing on India. This first came to light during Jinping’s first visit to India, when he was hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Ahmedabad.

Even as the two were meeting, the PLA made a foray into Indian territory in Ladakh. As pointed out in this article , Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh is learnt to have personally called up Modi to inform him about the belligerence of the PLA. The situation became particularly awkward for Modi as he was playing a perfect host on the banks of Sabarmati river. He, however, broached the issue subtly with Jinping wondering if it was more than a mere coincidence that every high profile visit was often marred with the PLA’s muscle-flexing. Upon his return, Jinping initiated concrete action to the satisfaction of the Indian government.

The bonhomie between the political leadership, particularly between Modi and Jinping, therefore began with trust. But the historical baggage of distrust and subterranean hostility is so enormous that each side is wary of the other. There were instances when Modi jettisoned conventional diplomatic advice to reach out to Jinping. And on his part, Jinping has always played the role of a leader who is not only unencumbered by history but is also keen to chart a new relationship between India and China.

While everybody seems to be talking about India vs China, Modi seems to suggest a joint destiny. “There can be (a) difference of opinion about whether India will be a superpower or China will be (the one), but there is no doubt that this is the Asian Century,” he said at a function in New Delhi on Monday, underlining the need for Asian countries to seize the opportunity.

Highly placed sources say that it would not be apt to describe the meeting between Modi and Jinping and his BRICS tour merely as “very good”. They say it was “excellent” for many reasons. One, both the leaders left the shadow of Doka La far behind and agreed to a constructive futuristic relationship. Modi is learnt to have effectively disabused the notion that India had any interest in “containing China”. Far from it, India has shown a keen interest to learn a lot from China, particularly the manner in which Jinping ushered in political reforms in his country.

In the 19th National Congress of CPC, a large number of senior leaders (around five) crossing the age of 69 would be shown the door. Fenghui, considered to be close to Jinping’s predecessor Hu Jin Tao and a powerful general, has been suddenly dropped from the congress ostensibly on charges of “corruption”. Of course, Jinping’s determined drive against corruption in China’s power superstructure has seen many purges of top leaders like Bo Xilai and his wife Gu Kailai following their implication in the murder of a British businessman and series of corruption cases. In today’s China, Jinping has particularly focused on the elimination of corruption and a substantial reduction of pollution that plagues China’s urban centres due to reckless pursuit of growth and industrialisation. At the domestic front, Jinping has been grappling with a lot of variables to set the country on a right course.

Incidentally, India’s political leadership which has also been grappling with an almost similar set of problems is also cognisant and sympathetic towards China’s compulsions. Unlike China, India has a multi-party democracy, though the BJP seems to be getting into the position of the dominant principal pole. The trajectory of the BJP’s organisational structure which expanded phenomenally in the recent past has features which are quite similar to CPC. Former US treasury secretary Henry M Paulson in his authoritative book, Dealing with China, quotes Jinping as telling him about the one-party system: “Because we have one party rule, we need to be a good party. So, we have three tasks: self-improvement, self-purification and self-regulation.”

After Modi’s recent visit, India is keeping her fingers crossed for a positive outcome after the conclusion of the 19th National Congress of the CPC. Given the burden of history, both the sides are hiding their optimism, and are guided, perhaps, by Deng Xiaoping’s memorable quote “crossing the river while feeling the stones”.