Monsoon withdrawal to begin around 20 September; Central India to surpass surplus by greater margin, North East records deficit

As correctly predicted by Skymet, the past week has been a witness to flooding rains in Madhya Pradesh and excess rains in Gujarat and East Rajasthan. Central India has once again been the chief beneficiary of monsoons with a surplus of 23 percent.

Nearly dry conditions were experienced in Punjab, Haryana and the hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Consequently, North-West India is still threatened with a deficiency of 8 percent. North East India continues to remain the most deficit pocket, with the hardest-hit state being Manipur, followed closely by Nagaland and Meghalaya. However, the country-wide cumulative rainfall stands at a surplus of 4 percent. According to the rainfall data available with Skymet from 1 June-15 September, the country has so far received 841.4 mm of rainfall against the normal of 807.4 mm.

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Monsoon withdrawal to commence around 20 September

Flooding rains are not to be expected this week. While extremely heavy rains will recede from Madhya Pradesh, the monsoon activity is likely to be more intense over the eastern parts of the state. The otherwise parched pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will experience moderate rains, especially in the first half of the week.

Konkan and Goa will record widespread, moderate-heavy showers this week. On the other hand, Kerala and coastal Karnataka will observe subdued rainfall activity. Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and Karnataka will experience the least Monsoon activity. North-East India will continue to observe mostly moderate rains, with some areas experiencing intense rainfall activity. Moderate rains are likely over Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

Heavy rains are possible over Maharashtra in the period between 19 and 21 September and over the Konkan coast during the weekend. This may lead to waterlogging and local flooding in these areas. Moderate to light rains are to be expected over Mumbai this week. However, the possibility of isolated heavy spells, especially in the second half of the week cannot be ruled out.

The likely appearance of an anticyclone over West Rajasthan shortly will act as a precursor to the commencement of the withdrawal of monsoon. The withdrawal is likely to begin around 20 September, simultaneously from West Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

Patchy rains in Delhi-NCR

Delhi will experience very light, patchy rains of short duration in the first half of the week. The latter half of the week will bear witness to the capital city inching towards monsoon withdrawal.

Impact on crops

Excess rains over Madhya Pradesh, especially in the western parts have already damaged 20-40 percent of the moong and urad crops in the state. The soybean crop is at a satisfactory condition as of now but the possibility of even light rains in coming days can prove to be harmful to the crops. Expectations of moderate rains in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh will be beneficial to the crop.

The author is the managing director of Skymet Weather.