Monsoon set for an early date with India, IMD predicts first rains to splash Kerala on May 27

The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala over the next four to five days, significantly earlier than the customary June 1 date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

The meteorological bureau had previously predicted that the monsoon will arrive over Kerala on May 27.

If the monsoon comes in Kerala as projected, it will be the earliest onset on the Indian mainland since May 23, 2009, according to IMD statistics.

“Conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during next 4-5 days,” the IMD said in an update on Tuesday afternoon.

Normally, the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.

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The monsoon had set in over the southern state on May 30 last year; June 8 in 2023; May 29 in 2022; June 3 in 2021; June 1 in 2020; June 8 in 2019; and May 29 in 2018.

The IMD had in April forecast above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2025 monsoon season, ruling out the possibility of El Niño conditions, which are associated with below-normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ’normal'.

Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered ‘deficient’; between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is ‘below normal’; between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is ‘above normal’; and more than 110 per cent is considered ’excess’ precipitation.

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India’s economy remains heavily reliant on the monsoon, particularly the southwest monsoon, which provides over 70% of the country’s yearly rainfall. This seasonal rainfall sustains more than half of India’s agriculture, which employs more than 40% of the population. Despite the expansion of irrigation infrastructure, approximately half of the country’s cropland remains rain-fed.

A timely monsoon beginning and uniformly distributed rains assist to assure strong agricultural yields, minimise food inflation, and boost rural incomes. For example, early or normal monsoon arrival tends to increase rice, pulse, and coarse grain planting. A delayed or insufficient monsoon, on the other hand, can cause droughts, decreased agricultural production, and increased food prices, all of which have an economic ripple effect.

In addition to agriculture, the monsoon has an impact on hydropower generation, urban drinking water supply, and total groundwater recharging. The strength and timing of the monsoon have a direct influence on industries such as fertiliser, tractors, consumer products, and rural banking.