Monsoon likely to be near normal this year with well-distributed rainfall; weak El Nino conditions may prevail

The country is likely to have ’near normal’ monsoon this year with a well-distributed rainfall which could be beneficial for the agriculture sector, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday, reported PTI.

IMD: Overall the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall in 2019 monsoon season. It will be beneficial for the farmers in the ensuing Kharif season. https://t.co/sbATHR4lOU

— ANI (@ANI) April 15, 2019

The seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus five percent, secretary ministry of earth sciences (MoES) M Rajeevan said. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 centimetres. Significantly, this year the IMD has introduced a category of ’near normal’ for rainfall between 96-104 percent of the LPA. In its forecast last year, the rainfall between 96-104 of the LPA was classified as “normal” category. Rainfall of 90 to 96 percent of the LPA is below normal. Ninety-six percent rainfall borders on below normal and normal category. [caption id=“attachment_5486091” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. PTI[/caption] Weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity, Rajeevan said. There could some effect of the El Nino in June, but monsoon may pick up pace from July, he added. “Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal,” the IMD said in Long Range Forecast for 2019 southwest monsoon rainfall. IMD director general KJ Ramesh said overall, the country is expected to have well-distributed rainfall scenario during the monsoon season which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season. Several parts of the country are witnessing agricultural distress. Earlier this month, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, had predicted a below normal monsoon. Last year, the IMD had predicted rainfall of 97 percent of the LPA, but by the end of the season, the country received 91 percent rainfall. Monsoon is likely to be 96 percent of the LPA, a senior official of the IMD said. LPA is the average of rainfall between 1951 and 2000, which is 89 cm. Anything between 90-95 percent of LPA falls under the “below normal” category. The IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June, said a Reuters report.   — With inputs from agencies