Monsoon delays withdrawal till second week of October; abundant rainfall in Gujarat, Central India, deficit shrinks in East

Monday, the 30th of September is the official last day of the monsoon season. Monsoon 2019 ends on a pleasant note with surplus rains. The withdrawal of monsoons has been unduly delayed this year. The withdrawal which generally commences from Rajasthan in the first fortnight of September has been postponed to the second week of October. As correctly predicted by Skymet, rains over East India reduced the overall deficiency in the region to 15 percent. Active monsoon conditions in the South Peninsula led to a further surge of 3 percent in the surplus rainfall. Central India has been the chief beneficiary of this monsoon, with a surplus of 27 percent. According to the rainfall data available with Skymet from 1 June -29 September, the country-wide cumulative rainfall stands at 956.1 mm against the normal of 877 mm, leading to a surplus of 9 percent. [caption id=“attachment_7425331” align=“alignnone” width=“825”]  Source: Skymet[/caption] No sign of the withdrawal of monsoon this week Bihar and the adjoining regions of East Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand which has been receiving some heavy rains this past week will experience some respite from the intense monsoon activity. However, moderate rains are expected to continue over Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. The monsoon circulation over the central parts will also cause moderate rains over East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. There have been bountiful rains over Madhya Pradesh this season, with record surpluses of 61 percent and 24 percent in West and East Madhya respectively. Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana will continue to experience light-moderate showers, which are likely to wane by the end of the week. The wet spell over Gujarat is likely to continue for at least the first two days of the week, which will gradually ease out and become light. The state has experienced a record surplus of 39 percent and all its pockets have received widespread and excess rains. The South Peninsula will receive light rains in the first half of the week, which will intensify in the second half and become moderate. Karnataka and the interiors of Tamil Nadu will be the chief beneficiaries of these rains. Thus, the monsoon season shows no sign of withdrawal even after its official cessation. Deficiency in Delhi in Delhi NCR, surplus in Mumbai The national and the economic capitals of the country have experienced two diametrically opposite scenarios, representative of the diverse nature of the Indian monsoons. Delhi has recorded a deficiency of 35 percent this season, with only the month of July receiving the stipulated normal amount of rainfall. The months of June and September have both been miserable performers. However, some light-moderate rains will be experienced across Delhi NCR in the second half of the week. On the contrary, Mumbai has recorded excess rainfall this season. Even in the rain-scanty month of June, Mumbai had received bountiful rains – 509 mm against the normal of 493 mm. This though is not unsurprising for a city which always defies the overarching rainfall trends visible otherwise across the country. So far, the city has recorded a surplus of 60 percent. The author is the managing director of Skymet Weather.