Jammu-Kashmir polls: What 44% Independent candidates mean for Union Territory

Jammu and Kashmir will begin voting in the assembly election after a gap of 10 years on September 18. The other two phases of the three-phase polls will happen on September 25 and October 1. An unusually high number of Independent candidates are contesting in these polls — 44 per cent of the total.

After the scrutiny of nomination papers, there are 214 Independent candidates in the fray in the first two phases of the J&K assembly polls for 50 seats — 24 in the first phase and 26 in the second phase.  

This is 44% of about 450 candidates contesting for the 50 of the 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. Of them, 92 are contesting in the first phase, and 122 in the second. The last time, Jammu and Kashmir had seen 37 per cent of the candidates contesting as Independents.  

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Also, at least 19 Independent candidates have withdrawn their nomination papers from different assembly constituencies going to the polls in the first two phases.

Engineer Rashid’s candidates

The high number of Independent candidates flows from parties that are not directly contesting but backing nominees of their choice or affiliations. For example, Of the 214 Independent candidates, there are at least 26 who are from the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), led by jailed MP Engineer Abdul Rashid Sheikh.

Many analysts consider Rashid as a surprise package in the upcoming polls. Lodged in Delhi’s Tihar jail since August 2019 — when the Centre revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcated the erstwhile state into two Union Territories, Ladakh being the other — Rashid won a remarkable victory in the Lok Sabha election from the Baramulla constituency. He defeated two political heavyweights Omar Abdullah and former minister Sajjad Lone, the Peoples Conference chairman.

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Rashid’s Abrar Rashid is now leading the party’s J&K poll campaign, with several disgruntled leaders of other parties having joined the AIP. Among such turncoats are former MLAs Shoiab Lone — who quit Azad’s DPAP — and Yasir Reshi, who came from the Peoples Conference.

The AIP aims to put up 40-42 candidates out of 47 assembly seats in the Kashmir region. It is also looking to field five-eight candidates in the Jammu region that has 43 assembly seats, where the BJP wants to score big.  

Jamaat-e-Islami factor

Also in play is the banned Jamaat-e-Islami, which recently announced to back some of the independent candidates in the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election. The outfit has extended support to several candidates including those contesting from South Kashmir constituencies of Kulgam, Pulwama, Devsar, and Zainapora.

The Jamaat cannot officially contest the assembly polls as it is proscribed under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act — invoked against outfits suspected or found to be involved in terror activities. The group was banned in 2019 for alleged anti-national activities and links to terrorism. Earlier this year, the Union home ministry extended the ban for five more years.

The Jamaat used to be a cadre-based outfit and is said to still hold some influence particularly in South Kashmir, where it may influence the outcome of the election in about a dozen constituencies.

And, a charge against the BJP

Additionally, there is strong speculation in Jammu and Kashmir that many Independent candidates have the backing of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — a charge also levelled by former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah recently.  

Abdullah, the top leader of the National Conference, targeted BJP leader Amit Shah, the Union home minister, alleging, “The home minister listed the parties with which the BJP will not form the government. He was, however, silent about the independents because they are hand in glove [with them]. He was silent about the Apni Party and People’s Conference.”  

Another former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) echoed Abdullah’s concerns, alleging that the BJP was coordinating with smaller parties to undermine regional powerhouses. She said, “The BJP’s proxies failed in the parliamentary election, and now the Centre has put jailed Rashid’s AIP on the forefront, along with other independents.”  

The surge in Independent candidates has created a flutter in the Jammu and Kashmir politics that for long was a three-cornered fight among the NC, the PDP and the Congress. The BJP broke the status quo in 2014 with a dominating performance in the Jammu region. Now, if Independents score big wins in these polls, they may play the role of kingmakers if voters throw up a divided assembly on October 8, when the votes will be counted.