India's GDP grew 7.6% in July-September quarter, sharply above estimates

The Indian economy grew 7.6 per cent during the July-September quarter of the current financial year 2023-24, remaining the fastest-growing major economy. India’s GDP growth for the April-June quarter grew 7.8 per cent. Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 41.74 lakh crore, as against Rs 38.78 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23, showing a growth of 7.6 per cent as compared to 6.2 per cent in Q2 2022-23, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had maintained real GDP growth for 2023-24 at 6.5 per cent with Q2 at 6.5 per cent; Q3 at 6.0 per cent; and Q4 at 5.7 per cent. The only thing about which the central bank showed utmost concern at its last monetary policy meeting was the rising inflation and its attached potential risk to the growth outlook. Recently, industry body FICCI in a survey found that the Indian economy is projected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2023-24 with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 6 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively. The FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted in the month of September 2023 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sectors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had in October raised India’s GDP growth forecast for India for the financial year 2023-24 to 6.3 per cent, its second upward revision since the April report. IMF attributed stronger-than-expected consumption during April-June for the upward projection in the growth estimate. The IMF growth forecast was raised from 5.9 per cent in April, 6.1 per cent in July, to 6.3 per cent now, taking it closer to the 6.5 per cent predicted by the Indian authorities. For 2024-25, IMF pegged India’s GDP growth at 6.3 per cent, though unchanged from its earlier two projections. Meanwhile, the combined Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) increased by 12.1 per cent (provisional) in October 2023 as compared to the Index of October 2022. The production of all eight core industries (Cement, Coal, Crude Oil, Electricity, Fertilizers, Natural Gas, Refinery Products and Steel) recorded positive growth in October 2023 over the corresponding month of last year, according to an official release from the Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry.