India's forays in ASEAN encouraging start to counterbalance China, but more is needed to win over south-eastern neighbours

It is heartening that India has now found a new common cause with countries of South-East Asia apart from trade and cultural bonds. It is indeed a measure of India’s growing clout that strategic relations formed the fulcrum of the summit of South-East Asian leaders hosted ostensibly to commemorate a quarter century of Indo-ASEAN relations. There is a growing realization that India can be an effective bulwark against China’s hegemonistic designs which are clearly manifested in Beijing’s not-so-veiled efforts to control the South China Sea, thereby imperiling the freedom of navigation in the high seas over which China has no legitimate right to stake claim. [caption id=“attachment_4320731” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the ASEAN leader. PTI[/caption] By standing shoulder to shoulder with South-East Asian nations, India has made it amply clear to China that any attempt to block navigation routes for trade and to flex its muscles with the smaller hinterland states would be resisted by India. That this has the backing of the US is beyond question. By entering into strong maritime arrangements with the US, Japan and Australia, and now drawing the 10-member ASEAN into the vortex, India is posing a deterrent to Chinese designs. This is indeed a welcome development especially in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which seeks to provide a short cut to China to reach its merchandise to the sea through Pakistan in its larger quest in pursuit of the same goal of controlling the sea lanes. The time was ripe for India’s counter-initiative because China has been threatening the hinterland states in the South China Sea especially Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines with dire consequences if they did not accept Chinese supremacy in the region. Much of South-East Asia is exasperated by Chinese threats and the Indian umbrella has come in handy for them. At the plenary session of the Indo-Asean summit Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear that “India shares ASEAN’s vision of peace and prosperity through a rules-based order for the oceans and sea.” This was as strong an enunciation of India’s solidarity with these countries in their resolve to counter China as could be. In words that should be a timely reminder to China, Modi said “we remain committed to work with ASEAN to enhance practical cooperation in our shared maritime domain. He added that India and ASEAN were looking to set up a mechanism for “greater cooperation in the maritime sector.” Having showcased India’s military might before the ASEAN leaders through the Republic Day parade, India has demonstrated that it is a power to reckon with and that it can be relied upon on its claims of providing security against China. At the same time, the next logical step for India would be to push for greater Indo-ASEAN trade cooperation. Trade between China and ASEAN is hugely beyond India’s trade with ASEAN and it would be India’s strong endeavour to step this up, taking advantage of the suspicions of some of the ASEAN member-states over China’s ultimate intentions. In 2016-17 China’s trade with Asean was more than six times India’s $470 million. The hopes from the South Asian Forum for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have essentially been belied because of the antagonistic relationship between India and Pakistan. It therefore makes perfect sense to prop up Indo-ASEAN cooperation. India and ASEAN together constitute a substantial $5 trillion economy, the third largest after US and China. But there can be little doubt that India would need to do a lot more to wean the powerful regional economic bloc away from China. While infrastructural constrains in India continue to be a major roadblock, bureaucratic red tape puts off investors. The fact that while the Delhi summit was on, there was a breakdown of law and order in four states including Delhi on the Padmavaat issue was a poor advertisement for the national capital region. On a more positive plane, the road links that India is in the process of establishing and furthering with ASEAN to facilitate trade through the northeast is a significant step in the right direction. It would open up new vistas for Indo-ASEAN collaboration. That terrorism found a pointed reference in the joint declaration that India and ASEAN issued was certainly a plus for India. It is by no means routine for ASEAN to lend its joint statement to a critique, however indirect, of another country, in this case Pakistan. Both India and ASEAN agreed to promote a comprehensive approach to combating terrorism through close cooperation by “disrupting and countering the terrorists, terrorist groups and networks.” Cross-border movement of terrorists and foreign terrorist fighters and misuse of internet, including social media by terror entities was also mentioned leaving no one in doubt that the reference was to Pakistan’s use of terror targeted against India. All in all, it was a good idea for Modi to have invited Asean leaders for a summit followed by a showcasing of military might. The key will, however, lie in an effective follow-up without which the deliberations in New Delhi will lose all meaning.