 "South Korea’s experience shows why India has been right about Trump")
“Friends are a strange, volatile, contradictory, yet sticky phenomenon,” wrote Vera Nazarian in her book The Perpetual Calendar of Inspiration: Old Wisdom for a New World. That line could well describe India’s relationship with US President Donald Trump, a leader who has often combined demands for loyalty with disruptive and punitive actions.
Recent events involving South Korea, another close US ally, show why New Delhi’s instincts about Trump have been more prescient than Seoul’s.
Price of avoiding Trump’s wrath
South Korea had opted for conciliation in its dealings with the Trump administration. In July, Seoul promised to purchase $100 billion worth of US energy and invest $350 billion in America, a package designed to stave off tariff threats and ease trade tensions. The deal was hailed at the time as a breakthrough in bilateral relations and a reaffirmation of the US–South Korea alliance.
Yet, this strategy of appeasement was swiftly undermined. Despite Seoul’s multibillion-dollar commitment, US authorities under Trump launched the largest workplace immigration raid of his second term, targeting a Hyundai-LG battery plant in Ellabell, Georgia. More than 300 South Korean nationals were arrested, many of them shackled, in images that deeply unsettled the South Korean public, abcNEWS reported.
The raid underlined an uncomfortable truth: under Trump, trade concessions and investment promises did not guarantee protection from politically driven crackdowns.
A slap in the face for South Korea
In Seoul, the reaction was one of outrage. Opposition lawmakers, former diplomats and the media voiced shock at what they perceived as an act of bad faith. Former vice foreign minister Choi Jong Kun described the incident as being “slapped in the face” after years of South Korea funnelling resources into the US, The Washington Post reported.
The scale and optics of the raid were particularly galling. Video footage released by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement showed South Korean workers shackled at their wrists, ankles and waists. Newspapers across the ideological spectrum denounced the operation as “unusual,” “impulsive” and “contradictory.”
South Korea’s foreign minister Cho Hyun was forced to fly to Washington to negotiate the release and repatriation of the detained workers. Seoul eventually announced that the employees would return home on a chartered plane, but the diplomatic damage had already been done.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe alliance questioned
The raid struck at the heart of South Korea’s assumptions about its strategic partnership with Washington. As a key US ally in Northeast Asia, South Korea had long believed its role as a counterweight to China and North Korea guaranteed goodwill in Washington. But the Trump administration’s actions prompted many in Seoul to wonder whether “alliance” still held meaning.
Chosun Ilbo, the country’s largest newspaper, asked bluntly: “What does the US mean by ‘alliance,’ and are investment benefits guaranteed across administrations?”
Some analysts suggested the crackdown was motivated not by immigration enforcement alone but also by Trump’s political calculus. By targeting foreign workers at a high-profile plant, Trump could signal toughness to his “America First” base while ignoring the irony that the facility was being built with South Korean capital and expertise.
India’s more defiant approach
In sharp contrast, India has consistently refused to bow to Trump’s pressure. When Washington sought to rush trade negotiations under tight deadlines, New Delhi pushed back, insisting that no deal would be signed under coercion. The Modi government has also drawn a firm line on agriculture and dairy markets, sectors Trump has wanted opened to US exporters.
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently emphasised that India would “not bow down to anybody,” even after Trump imposed a punishing 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods following New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Far from conceding, Goyal argued that India would find opportunities in crisis, develop new trade partnerships and defend its farmers’ interests.
New Delhi has also rebuffed Trump in areas beyond trade. When Trump prematurely declared that he had brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, India categorically denied the claim. Similarly, despite Trump’s persistent pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, India declined to back his candidacy.
Logic behind India’s resistance
India appears to have calculated early that Trump’s style of pressure politics could not be satisfied through concessions. Giving in, they apparently found out, would not end the pressure but embolden further demands that would compromise India’s strategic autonomy.
South Korea’s experience seems to vindicate this approach. Despite Seoul’s record-breaking investment pledges, it still found itself subjected to humiliating immigration raids and punitive tariffs. India, by contrast, accepted that confrontation was inevitable and resolved not to trade long-term strategic autonomy for short-term relief.
Trade deals as no shield
The Hyundai raid highlighted a deeper point that even a signed trade deal or security alliance does not shield a partner from Trump’s unpredictability. South Korea’s government had celebrated a successful summit with Trump in late August, touting closer economic cooperation. Barely days later, its citizens were paraded in handcuffs.
As South Korean lawmakers warned, this episode dealt “a severe blow that will be difficult to heal”. Investment decisions, they argued, would now be shadowed by the fear of future raids and unilateral penalties.
India drew a different lesson from its own trade friction with Trump. Rather than pursue a deal at any cost, it chose to weather tariffs and diversify markets. By refusing to concede ground on dairy or agriculture, New Delhi ensured that Trump could not use deadlines as leverage to secure one-sided agreements.
The visa paradox
The South Korean case also exposed contradictions in Trump’s economic strategy. Washington demanded hundreds of billions in foreign investment to revitalise American manufacturing but made it exceedingly difficult for South Korean firms to bring in the skilled workers necessary to set up factories.
Due to tight caps on H-1B and H-2B visas, many South Korean engineers entered the US on short-term business visas or visa waivers, which were not intended for long-term employment. While this practice had been tolerated under previous administrations, Trump chose to criminalise it, thereby endangering the very projects he had hailed as “beautiful” months earlier.
For South Koreans, this was not just contradictory but insulting even after pledging massive capital inflows, they were treated as though their contributions were a threat rather than a benefit.
India’s strategic autonomy stands out
While South Korea was left scrambling to repatriate hundreds of its citizens, India’s leadership projected confidence. Goyal highlighted that India remained “the fastest growing large economy” and an indispensable market of 1.4 billion people. This confidence allowed New Delhi to withstand Trump’s tariffs without signalling desperation for his approval.
India’s insistence on autonomy extended beyond economics. By rejecting Trump’s claims of brokering peace in South Asia and refusing to indulge his Nobel ambitions, New Delhi showed it was willing to call out political theatrics. This posture contrasted sharply with Seoul’s conciliatory approach, which left it vulnerable to shocks like the Georgia raid.
Lessons for US allies
The juxtaposition of South Korea and India reveals a broader lesson for US allies. Trump’s transactionalism means that concessions today do not ensure stability tomorrow. His politics prioritise optics for his domestic base over the commitments of international partners.
Analysts in Seoul acknowledged this grim reality. Kim Jong-dae, a former lawmaker, said in a radio interview that the behaviour of Trump’s supporters showed “the United States has changed dramatically” and that South Korea now faced “a deeply worrying trend”.
For India, which has historically prized non-alignment and autonomy, Trump’s methods merely reinforced existing instincts. Concessions, New Delhi judged, would only invite more demands. South Korea’s ordeal appears to confirm that assessment.
Vindication for India
The Hyundai raid and its aftermath serve as a cautionary tale. South Korea’s billions in promised investment did not spare it from Trump’s raids or tariffs. Its status as a key US ally did not shield its citizens from being shackled in Georgia.
India, by contrast, has consistently chosen defiance over deference. It has refused to sign trade deals under duress, protected its farmers, denied Trump his peace laurels and braced for tariffs without flinching.
In a world where Trump’s America treats even allies with suspicion, India’s stance looks less like obstinacy and more like foresight. New Delhi seems to have cracked the Trump code earlier than Seoul that appeasement is no safeguard.
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