India's Pak flip-flop to continue? Modi could meet Nawaz in New York

Those who thought that the BJP-led government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will write a new, bold and different script with regard to Pakistan are in for a disappointment, after the stupendously positive start even before Modi was sworn in as PM. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on Monday did not deny the possibility of Modi meeting Nawaz Sharif in New York in the last week of this month. The “talks-no, talks-yes again” cycle may well come into play once again later this month as Modi may well meet his Pakistani counterpart in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. This is the ‘reading the tea leaves’ message that has emanated from Sushma Swaraj’s maiden press conference – held only after it was duly approved by PM Modi on the occasion of 100 days of the Modi government. [caption id=“attachment_1545025” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif. AP image[/caption] (On a side note, Sushma Swaraj must consider herself lucky as several ministers are ready to hold a press conference and even their press releases highlighting the government’s achievements in 100 days are prepared but the PMO has not given its nod!) Sample the Sushmaspeak on issues concerning Pakistan: On whether Modi will meet his Pakistani counterpart in New York: “The government will not go to the UNGA session with a predetermined mindset concerning talks with Pakistan. We will respond as the situation develops. We are not going with a predetermined mindset.” On Nawaz Sharif’s counter-offer of help to India for floods in Jammu and Kashmir couched in a rather harsh tone: “We should not take the skin out of the issue. The intentions were good. They should have been responded to accordingly.” On whether Modi government’s Pakistan policy is flawed: The PM told Sharif that you start trade on the Wagah-Attari border. Then the Foreign Secretaries’ talks is another initiative. Who derailed this initiative? It was Pakistan. There is no flaw in our Pakistan policy… We had good talks during the May meeting between Modi and Sharif. But they have not been able to start the trade on the Wagah-Attari border. On the FS (foreign secretaries) talks, our FS spoke to theirs and it was decided to hold it in Islamabad, and on August 25. But before that what was the need to invite the separatists? What was the need and what did they achieve? We have said clearly that if you speak with them we will call off talks, and so we called off the talks. Where is the flaw in insisting that they not interfere in our internal affairs? Much like PM Modi, the minister spoke like a teacher. “Foreign Policy is what you should do. Diplomacy is how you do. You call neighbours, you go there, all that depends on diplomacy. Our diplomacy started even before we took oath. We began by meeting head of states from eight nations.” The fact that Sushma Swaraj underplayed Nawaz Sharif’s counter offer on J&K floods and did not deny outright a Modi-Sharif meeting in New York, only shows that the Modi government’s Pakistan is no different from the previous governments, including the three tenures of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The Modi government, which unveiled out-of-the-box invitational diplomacy in the third week of May to all SAARC countries, including Pakistan; hosted a banquet for these leaders, including Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (though no chicken biryani was served!); had a brief honeymoon climaxing with Modi and Sharif indulging in saree-and-shawl diplomacy; and promised to start foreign secretary level talks and fixed the date and venue of these talks. Shortly thereafter the bubble burst as Pakistan created a war-like situation on the borders with unprovoked firing and pushed the envelope on Kashmiri separatists. India-Pakistan relations have long been marked by “one step forward, two steps backward”. The two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals have traditionally talked for talks, held intense talks even despite big ticket terror attacks. Things are back to square one. There may yet be talks again between the prime ministers of India and Pakistan as India cannot afford to alienate international community by pursuing a no-talks policy vis a vis Pakistan. The writer is Firstpost Consulting Editor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha