India ranks 3rd in power projection in Asia just behind US, China: Australia institute

India is the most powerful nation in Asia after the United States and China, according to Australian think tank Lowy Institute.

In the 2024 edition of Lowy’s ‘Asia Power Index’ (API), India overtook Japan to arrive at the third position in Asia with a score of 39.1 out of 100.

The API has ranked Australia as the fifth most powerful nation in Asia.

The API has been released at a time when China is increasingly demonstrating aggression in Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. To counter its expansionist aggression and hegemonic designs, India, the United States, Japan, and Australia have partnered under multiple frameworks, such as the Quad.

Even as the United States ranks first, China is ahead in terms of military power in Asia even as its economy has plateaued, as per API.

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India is rising — but slower than expected

Even as India overtook Japan to be ranked third in Asia, the API report noted that India’s rise has been slower than expected.

India has a lot of unrealised potential when it comes to asserting influence east of the Malacca Strait, according to the report.

The fact that India’s influence remains well below the level promised by its resources suggests it still has ample potential for further growth as a major power, says the API report.

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Even as India’s ranking has increased, the overall power score in the API has decreased during 2018-23. The report notes that while India’s diplomatic score has increased, economic links in the region remains weak.

“India’s low-level economic integration with the larger economies in Asia and weak participation in regional economic architecture means this trend is set to continue,” notes the API report.

Susannah Paton, the main author of the report, told Australia’s ABC News that India’s strong economic growth and energetic diplomacy in the region had bolstered its position, although there were still question marks over its trajectory.

“The glass-half-full view of India is that it’s growing strongly and its diplomatic influence has increased, but the more downbeat assessment is that they’re still lagging in their economic relationships with the region. That’s no surprise given India’s reluctance to join regional trade arrangements and that it remains fairly inwards looking economically,” said Paton.

US partnerships & economy gives edge over China

Even as China now has a stronger military than the United States in Asia along with more diplomatic and trade links in the region, the United States is still ahead as it has much closer and trusted partnerships in the region and its economy continues to fare better than China.

While China lacks trust across the Indo-Pacific as it has clashed with almost all South Asian nations and continues to have a military stand-off with India, the United States has forged key partnerships. While South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia are traditional treaty allies, new partnerships such as the AUKUS including Australia and the United Kingdom have also been forged. The Quad has also become central to countering China’s hegemonic designs.

The United States and China appear to be digging in for a long contest, notes the API report.

“China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing, but plateauing. Flatlining economic capability, driven by slower economic growth and longer-term structural challenges, means that China’s economic clout, while still commanding, is no longer growing,” says the report.

The United States “continues to confound pessimists by demonstrating its staying power in the region, buoyed by its economic capabilities and alliance networks”, according to the report.

Noting the role of partnerships in propping US power in the region, the report said, “A key component of the Biden administration’s answer to an eroding US military advantage has been to deepen Washington’s Defence Networks with capable regional partners. In 2024, the US–Japan alliance reached new levels of integration and coordination, and the Australia–US alliance continued to grow, including under the auspices of AUKUS. The Biden administration has also shored up ties with South Korea and managed its alliance with the Philippines effectively.”