Despite de-escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan, ceasefire violations continue in Jammu and Kashmir

World leaders have been expressing relief as India and Pakistan “returned from the brink of the war,” after last week’s heightened hostilities and claims of mutual airspace violations. Countries such as  China , United States of America and United Kingdom even claimed that they consistently worked with the two governments to de-escalate tensions. However, the two nuclear powered neighbours seem to have directed their hostilities elsewhere: at the Jammu and Kashmir border and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Over the past few years, citizens on both sides of the Line of Control have been facing intermittent firing and heavy mortar shelling. However, border hostilities seem to have increased further since Jaish-e-Mohammed attacked a Central Reserve Police Force convoy killing at least 42 personnel. The Indian Air Force’s retaliatory airstrike (and Pakistan’s counter) on the terrorist group’s camp further vitiated the already fragile atmosphere in the border regions.

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) , ceasefire violations have been reported in Jammu and Kashmir almost every day between 15 February and 6 March, killing at least four civilians in India. The portal compiled at least 17 reports of ceasefire violations between 15 February and 4 March. Three incidents of ceasefire violations at three different sectors were reported on 6 March by PTI.

The reports also showed that the tension heightened between 26 and 28 February after the Indian Air Force targeted a Jaish-e-Mohammed camp across the International Border in Pakistan’s Balakot. On 26 February alone, there were at least five instances of ceasefire violations from Pakistani side, and heavy retaliation from Indian side were reported.

On 27 February , while Pakistani aircraft crossed into the Indian territory along the LoC in Poonch, army officials said ground troops of Pakistan assisted their air force by carrying out heavy mortar shelling along the border at around 20 places.

The firing resumed on 6 March after a brief lull the previous day.  While cross-border skirmishes lasted for over three hours in Nowshera sector which left a soldier injured, the firing in Krishna Ghati took place from 6 pm to 8:15 pm. Firing in Sunderbani sector started at 8:30 pm Tuesday and ended around 4:30 am on Wednesday, the officials said. Minutes later, they said the guns once again roared in Krishna Ghati sector and firing was underway between the two sides when last reports were received.  However, there have been no reports of shelling all through 7 March, making this the longest window of normalcy since the Pulwama attack.

These skirmishes come amid an all time low between India-Pakistan relations. The scale and frequency of cross-border shelling has grown exponentially since 2016. Official data compiled on SATP shows that while 152 incidents of ceasefire violations across LoC were reported in 2015, the figure rose to 228 in 2016. In 2017 a whopping jump was recorded with at least 860 incidents of ceasefire violations, in 2018 the figure shot up to 1454 till  30 November 2018.  Add to this the number of instances across IB and the figure crosses 2000. The official data post November last year is not available.

How ceasefire violations are recorded and counted

There is no fixed method.

The figures of 2019 also have not been confirmed by official sources and estimates in ground reports and agency copies vary from 20 to over 70 within the past week alone. The reason behind such varying figures is that there is no clarity with regard to how CFVs are counted on the ground. There is no formal definition in the unwritten ceasefire agreement of 2003 . As an article in The Print explains, a ceasefire violation can be several rounds of firing in one particular area, or it could also mean shots fired miles apart but at the same time. One violation might also be thousands of shots fired by a range of weapons from personal firearms to heavy artillery across multiple areas within a period of 24 hours.

The article further states that the areas most affected by ceasefire violations on the Indian side are Poonch and Jammu, followed by Samba and Rajouri. On the Pakistani side, Sialkot, Rawalakot, and Kotli have reported high incidence of CFVs. These locations essentially face each other across the international border and LoC.