Cyclone disrupts COVID response in western India, eastern states clamp curbs; total cases cross 2.5 cr

India’s COVID-19 toll climbed to 2,78,719 with a record 4,329 fresh fatalities on Tuesday as a powerful cyclone complicated the health crisis in some of the worst-hit states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra.

Mumbai in Maharashtra and the state of Gujarat had to suspend the vaccination drive temporarily due to the cyclone threat, which left at least 19 people dead in its wake. Mumbai’s Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) COVID-19 vaccination at its 150 centres on Tuesday following a three-day-long disruption while Gujarat, which halted vaccination only today will resume the drive on Thursday.

The Gujarat government also extended the lockdown, preferring to maintain the status quo at a time when the storm hit the state in the midst of a pandemic. The coronavirus-related restrictions which came into effect on 28 April will continue for three more days, Chief Minister Vijay Rupani said.

India Today  reported that a major vaccination centre in Mumbai’s Bandra-Kurla Complex also suffered major damages as heavy winds from cyclone Tauktae lashed the city. No injuries were, however, reported as the BMC authorities had already shifted patients and health officials to a safe place in wake of the approaching cyclone.

Meanwhile, the silver lining for the day was that the single-day rise in coronavirus cases stood at 2.63 lakh, the lowest in 28 days, according to the Union gealth ministry data updated on Tuesday.

The country reported a total of 2,63,533 new cases in a span of 24 hours, taking the total tally of COVID-19 cases to 2,52,28,996, the data updated at 8 am showed.

A total of 2,59,170 cases were reported in a span of 24 hours on 20 April.

The active cases further reduced to 33,53,765 comprising 13.29 percent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has improved to 85.60 percent, the data updated at 8 am showed.

The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 2,15,96,512, while the case fatality rate was recorded at 1.10 percent, the data stated.

‘COVID-19 pandemic shrinking, but 98% population still vulnerable’

India’s reproduction value (R) for COVID-19, which shows how fast the infection is spreading, is below one now which means that the pandemic is shrinking, the government said on Tuesday even as it cautioned that 98 percent of the population is still vulnerable.

Addressing media, NITI Aayog member (Health) VK Paul said in many states the pandemic curve is stabilising.

“Comprehensive efforts at containment and testing are resulting in stabilisation. We still have a few states which continue to be a cause of concern… there is a mixed picture but overall there is stabilisation and what we know from scientific analysis is the reproduction number is below 1 now which means the pandemic is shrinking,” Paul said.

Lav Agarwal, the joint secretary at the Health Ministry, said 1.8 percent of the total population in India has been affected by COVID so far which means 98 percent of the population is still susceptible or vulnerable to the infection.

“Despite the high number of cases reported so far, we have been able to contain the spread to under 2 percent of the population due to continued efforts by the medical fraternity, states and districts,” he said.

“This should also make us wary of protecting the still vulnerable/susceptible 98 percent population. We cannot let our guards down, hence continued focus on containment is critical,” Agarwal said.

Giving figures from around the world, he said 10.1 percent of the population in the US has been infected so far, 7.3 percent in Brazil, 9 percent in France and 7.4 percent in Italy.

Giving statistics, Agarwal said a continuous decline in active cases has been noted in the last 15 days.

“From being 17.13 percent on 3 May, active cases now comprise 13.3 percent of the country’s total infections. A positive trend in the recovery has also been noted.

The recovery rate which was 81.7 percent on 3 May has increased to 85.6 percent now,” he said.

“Since May 11, daily recoveries in the country have outnumbered daily cases. India has witnessed a consistent upward trend in weekly tests since mid-February with average daily tests more than 2.5 times in last 14 weeks. After a consistent increase in case positivity for 13 weeks, a decline in case positivity since the last week has been reported,” he added.

“Now eight states have more than 1 lakh active COVID-19 cases, while 22 states have more than 15 per cent case positivity which is a cause for us,” he said. Agarwal said a decreasing trend in positivity rate has been observed in 26 states and UTs.

Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram showing rise in COVID-19 cases and rise in positivity, he said. He further said that eight states have more than 1 lakh active COVID-19 cases, 22 states have more than 15 percent case positivity. He said there are 199 districts showing a continued decline in cases and positivity since the last two weeks.

Delhi announces ex-gratia for kin of COVID victims

The Delhi government will provide Rs 50,000 ex gratia to each family that has lost a member to COVID-19, besides a monthly pension of Rs 2,500 if the deceased was an earning member, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal announced on Tuesday.

He also said that the children who have lost both parents, or single parent, due to COVID-19 will also be provided a monthly assistance of Rs 2,500 up to the age of 25 years. Also, the government will provide them free education.

Kejriwal also said that each of 72 lakh ration card holders in the city will be provided free 10 kg ration, including 5 kg from a Central Government scheme, this month. The poor and the needy will be provided free ration even if they are without ration card, he added. No documents will be needed to get ration by them, he said.

Delhi has lost 22,111 persons due to COVID-19 so far, according to a health bulletin on Tuesday.

In a bid to help Delhi people hit hard by COVID-19 and the ongoing lockdown, the Delhi government has so far provided one-time financial assistance of Rs 50,000 to registered labourers and auto, taxi drivers in the city.

The National Capital on Tuesday reported 4,482 Covid-19 cases, the lowest single-day rise since April 5, and 265 fatalities, while the positivity rate dipped to 6.89 per cent.

Govt watching situation on Singapore variant

Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri Tuesday said the Centre is taking all precautions and keeping an eye on the situation in Singapore after Kejriwal appealed to it to cancel all flights with the city-state as a “very dangerous” coronavirus strain has been detected there.

“Kejriwal ji, all international flights have been stopped since March 2020. We have no air bubble with Singapore either,” Puri said on Twitter.

Only a few flights are being operated between the two countries under Vande Bharat Mission to bring stranded Indians back, he added.

“We are still keeping an eye on the situation. All precautions are being taken,” Puri noted.

India suspended all scheduled international passenger flights on 23 March, 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, special international passenger flights have been operating under the Vande Bharat Mission since May 2020 and under air bubbles formed with around 27 countries since July 2020.

Earlier in the day, Kejriwal appealed to the Centre to immediately cancel all air services with Singapore, saying the new strain of coronavirus there is said to be “very dangerous” for children.

This new strain of virus could invade India in the form of a third wave, he said in a tweet.

While there is no known Singapore strain of the coronavirus or any known to have originated in the city-state, Kejriwal appeared to be referring to a media report on Monday.

The report had mentioned the threat posed to Singapore’s children by the variant first detected in India.

Vaccine for children?

Amid concerns of a coronavirus variant that has started infecting children, earlier considered safe, Centre said that the Phase II/III clinical trials of Covaxin, indigenous COVID-19 vaccine, in the 2-18-year-olds will begin in the next 10-12 days. Senior NITI Aayog member VK Paul said that it was seen that children were affected and they are asymptomatic.

“So response remains the same of what we do, we have to protect ourselves with COVID appropriate behaviour and they have to be encouraged to wear masks and main social distancing. There is a clear cut science-driven protocol already available. If COVID symptoms are seen in children then that should be followed. Severe disease in children is uncommon but we have a protocol for that too,” he said.

He said COVAXIN is also conducting a trial and it will begin in 10-12 days.

“Science’s attention is on it and children can have an asymptomatic infection and they can also spread it. We have reasonable clarity on it,” he added.

The news comes a day after thirty-six children, aged between 5 and 16 years, in two orphanages in the Tripura state capital have tested positive for COVID-19.

More restrictions in eastern, northeastern states

The Telangana government on Tuesday extended the lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19 till 30 May, an official release said. The ongoing lockdown which began on 12 May was supposed to end by 22 May, according to an earlier official communication.

Odisha also decided to clamp stricter restrictions till 1 June  as the state continued to report around 10,000 new COVID-19 cases daily. Chief Secretary SC Mohapatra announced this a day before the completion of the tenure of the first phase of  lockdown at 5 am on 19 May. The chief secretary said that the complete weekend shutdown on Saturdays and Sundays, when only hospitals and medical outlets are allowed to operate, will also continue as earlier.

Mohapatra said that some stricter measures will be taken in the second phase of the lockdown. During the first phase, people got six hours from 6 am daily to purchase essential items, but now the window was reduced to five hours.

Meghalaya deputy chief Minister Prestone Tynsong on Tuesday announced total lockdown in East Khasi Hills district from Wednesday 8 pm till May 31 following the spike in COVID-19 cases. East Khasi Hills district of which state capital Shillong is a part, now has 3,076 active COVID-19 cases out of the total 5,332 cases in the state and has reported 301 coronavirus deaths out of the total 332 deaths.

Tripura government also announced night curfew in the entire state starting 19 May.

Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Assam may see peak in next 2 weeks: SUTRA model

Tamil Nadu, Assam and Punjab may see the peak of second wave of coronavirus cases in the next two weeks, the SUTRA model that charts the trajectory of COVID-19 predicted.

However, the relief is that Delhi and states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh have well passed their peak, the model further suggests.

It also says that the country reached its peak by 4 May and then the daily cases have seen downward trend. However, on 7 May, the country recorded 4,14,188 cases, the single highest in any day.

“Big states like Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Assam are yet to see their peak,” said professor M Vidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad, one of the three scientists working on the modelling.

The models suggest Tamil Nadu may see a peak by 29-31 May, while Puducherry may witness a peak on 19-20 May. States in east and northeast India are yet to see their peak. Assam may see a peak by 20-21 May, the model suggests.

Models predicted a dip in infection in Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and the cases in these states did record a decline but they have started increasing marginally. Meghalaya could see a peak on 30-31 May, while Tripura could see a peak on 26-27 May, the model suggests.

In the north, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are witnessing a surge in the cases. Himachal Pradesh may see a peak in the cases by 24 May and Punjab by 22 May. Odisha was to peak by 16-17 May.

States like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana besides Delhi and Goa have already seen their peak.

The health ministry in its press briefing on Tuesday said Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have shown a decline in COVID-19 cases and a decline in positivity.

Mathematical models help predict the intensity of coronavirus cases and policy decisions can be taken on its basis.

The SUTRA model came into existence last year after the Department of Science and Technology formed a group of scientists to work on mathematical models to forecast the surge of coronavirus.

The modelling faced intense criticism after it could not predict the exact nature of the second wave.

A statement issued by the DST and signed by Vidyasagar, IIT Kanpur Professor Manindra Agrawal and deputy chief of Integrated Defence Staff Madhuri Kanitkar, said mathematical models had predicted a second wave of coronavirus and its peak in the third week of April with daily cases of 1 lakh.

But the numbers were much higher than the model predicted.

With inputs from PTI