Bihar Election Exit Poll 2020 Result updates: Mahagathbandhan likely to win, says most pollsters; Nitish's approval ratings drop

Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates

Exit Polls at a glance: Here’s how each key pollster has stacked poll parties’ performance in Bihar

Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates

Exit polls not real results, says BJP

Speaking to CNN-news18 after a near-unanimous poor projection of NDA’s performance by various pollsters, BJP leader Aprajita Sarangi said, “With the support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Nitish Kumar government has done extremely well. These are not the real results."

Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates

Four surveys indicate a hung house but Today’s Chanakya projects landslide win for Mahagathbandhan

ABP-C Voter, TV9 Bahartvarsh, Republic-Jan Ki Baat and Times Now C Voter surveys have given Mahagathbandhan a lead, but have also been inclined towards calling it a hung house in the knife-edge race. 

Today’s Chanakya’s results are starkly different as the pollster has claimed that Tejashwi Yadav will become the next chief minister after a landslide win of 180 seats. NDA will be limited to around 55 seats.

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Today’s Chanakya gives Mahagathbandhan decisive lead

A vote projection for Bihar election by Today’s Chanakya predicts that the BJP-JDU will be limited to 55 (plus-minus 11 seats), while Mahagathbandhan will come to power with a decisive 180 (plus-minus 11 seats). Others are expected to get 8 (plus-minus 4) seats.

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Today’s Chanakya shows RJD+ lead result of Muslim-Yadav votes; NDA retains savarna support

The Today’s Chanakya survey also released a caste-wise break-up of voting pattern in this election. According to the survey, 60 percent upper caste respondents voted for the BJP-JDU, while 29 percent voted for Congress-RJD. It further said that 69 percent Yadavs voted for the RJD-Congress, while 22 percent picked BJP-JDU. Muslim voters also favoured the RJD-Congress as per the survey.

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ABP News-C Voter and India Today-My Axis polls say millennials, first-time voters backed Tejashwi

ABP News-C Voter survey, without giving the demographic break up of survey responders, said in its bulletin that millennials and first time voters have preferred Tejashwi over Nitish in these elections. The news channel said that contrary to what’s deemed BJP’s core constituency, the youth supported the mahagathbandhan this time, whereas more aged voters, who presumably were still around during the 15-year-long RJD rule have chosen to back Nitish despite some element of disenchantment and dispondency. 

Likewise, India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll also reported that 47 percent of voters aged between 18 to 35 years back Tejashwi Yadav, while voters aged between 51 and above overwhelmingly wanted Nitish back in power.

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Today’s Chanakya projects RJD win, says Mahagathbandhan to grab lion’s share of votes

Today’s Chanakya has started revealing its projections. The pollster has given the RJD and Congress-led grand alliance a majority share of the total votes at 44 percent in Bihar Assembly election, while the NDA will get 34 percent of vote share. Other parties, including Chirag Paswan’s LJP, received 22%, it predicted.

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Tejashwi top choice for CM, Nitish drops down to number 2: India Today-My Axis poll

India Today-My Axis Poll, which is yet to reveal its final projections for the Bihar Assembly Election, has said that 44 percent of survey responders preferred Tejashwi Yadav as the next Bihar chief minister, while 35 percent want JDU’s Nitish Kumar to get anotehr term.

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Is the Bihar Assembly headed for a hung house?

While the numbers predicted by each pollster varies, almost all exit poll surveys have agreed on one thing that the difference in vote share will not exceed 2-3 percent. This means that the fight for Bihar is expected to be a pitched battle between Opposition mahagathbandhan and ruling NDA. The ABP News-C Voter survey has given the Tejashwi-lead alliance 108-131 seat, and the magic number is firmly in the middle of that window. So the ball can roll either way.

Likewise, Republic jan Ki Baat has given RJD+ a clearer lead, but even it agrees that the Mahagathbandhan can stop short of the magic number by yeo seats.

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Republic-Jan ki Baat survey also puts Mahagathbandhan in lead; hung house likely

According to Republic Jan ki Baat survey, the Mahagathbandhan could form the government in Bihar with 118-138, where the alliance needs 122 MLAs to get a majority, The NDA, meanwhile, is projected to win 91-117 seats, LJP could get 5-8 seats, while others are projected to win 3-6 seats.

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Republic-Jan ki Baat survey also puts Mahagathbandhan in lead; hung house likely

According to Republic Jan ki Baat survey, the Mahagathbandhan could form the government in Bihar with 118-138, where the alliance needs 122 MLAs to get a majority, The NDA, meanwhile, is projected to win 91-117 seats, LJP could get 5-8 seats, while others are projected to win 3-6 seats.

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Congress to bag at least 10 out of 28 seats up for re-election after Scindia exit, says India Today My Axis poll

According to projections of Aaj Tak and India Today – My India Axis Exit Poll in MP bypoll, Congress may get 10-12 seats out of the 28 seats that went to poll while BJP gets 46% votes and may bag 16-18 seats.

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ABP news-C Voter survey puts ruling JD(U) in third spot; RJD emerges as the single-largest party

Here are the party wise projections of the ABP News-C Voter survey. It is noteworthy that this is as per the data collected till 5 pm only. The pollster will update its data later based on the responses collected during last one hour of polling. 

RJD: 81-89 

BJP: 66-74

JDU: 38-46

Congress: 21- 29

Left: 6-13

VIP: 0-4

HAM: 0-4

Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates

Times Now-C Voter survey projection says RJD+ to take lead but may stop short of magic number

The first projection coming in from Times Now C-Voter survey predicted a lead for Tejashwi Yadav-lead Mahagathbandhan in the Bihar polls. But the alliance comprising RJD, Congress, CPM and other small parties may stop short of the magic number of 122. The numbers are as follows:

NDA: 116
Mahagathbabdhan: 120
LJP: 1
Others: 6

Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates

Hung house can’t be ruled out based on ABP News-C Voter survey

The pollster has released its survey data collected till 5 pm toady. The survey claims that a hung house cannot be ruled out as both alliances will be in a neck and neck battle. The NDA is projected to get 104-128 in the 243-member house, whereas Mahagathbandhan could ger 108-131 seats. The magic number in Bihar Assembly is 122

Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates

Meanwhile… Pre-poll Opinion Survey had predicted pro-incumbency result despite drop in Nitish’s ratings

As we still await the outcome of Exit Poll results, here is a glance at a pre-poll opinion survey.

The Opinion survey by C Voter had predicted a pro-incumbency result, suggesting that Janata Dal (United) president Nitish Kumar will retain the chief minister’s post despite abysmal approval ratings. Pollster CVoter had published these after speaking to 30,678 people across all 243 seats between1 and 23 October. 

The survey uggested that 41.22 percent of the respondents were not satisfied at all with Nitish’s performance, while 61.1 percent desperately wanted a change in power. But despite that, that the NDA could win 135-159 seats in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly, which is comfortably higher than the magic number (122). The Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure 77-98 seats, according to the survey.

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ABP News-C Voter survey to release projections starting 6.30 pm

Pollster C Voter in collaboration with APB News will start releasing its projections from 6.30 pm onwards. The region wise updates and party wise performance estimates based on voter responses across all Assembly seats will be updated here shortly.

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India Today– Axis My-India exit poll at 6 pm

The exit polls will be key in deciphering early trends to project a winner — whether Nitish will be granted a fourth straight term in the Chief Minister’s Office or whether the electorate are placing their faith in the “new wave” brought on by Tejashwi’s leadership in the RJD. The India Today– Axis My-India exit poll will be live at 6 pm, as soon as the polling ends in the third and the final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections. Times Now C-Voter exit poll is also slated for 6 pm.

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Subhashini Yadav, Sunil Kumar among other key candidates

Othe key candidates include wife and daughter-in-law respectively of recently deceased ministers Vinod Kumar Singh (BJP) and Kapil Deo Kamat (JDU), respectively, are in the fray from the late legislators’ respective seats Pranpur and Babubarhi. Another keenly watched candidate is Subhashini Yadav from Bihariganj whose father, veteran socialist leader and former Union minister Sharad Yadav.

Armed with an MBA degree in marketing, the 30-year-old has made a sudden plunge into politics. Her assembly segment falls under Madhepura Lok Sabha seat which her father has won a number of times but lost in 2014 and failed to wrest back last year. Suhasini is contesting on a Congress ticket.

In the Valmiki Nagar Parliamentary seat, the JD(U) has fielded former MP Baidyanath Mahato’s son Sunil Kumar. He is facing the primary challenge from Congress candidate Pravesh Kumar Mishra, a journalist-turned-politician.

Prominent JD(U) candidates in fray for third phase:

Over 47 percent of the 2.34 crore voters have so far exercised their franchise in the third phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, according to provisional figures provided by the EC. Prominent candidates contesting in the third phase include Vijay Kumar Chaudhary of JD(U), Speaker of the outgoing Assembly, who seeks to do a hat-trick in Sarairanjan. JD(U) ministers in the fray are Bijendra Prasad Yadav (Supaul), Narendra Narayan Yadav (Alamnagar), Maheshwar Hazari (Kalyanpur), Ramesh Rishideo (Singheshwar), Khurshid alias Firoz Ahmed (Sikta), Lakshmeshwar Roy (Laukaha), Bima Bharti (Rupauli) and Madan Sahni (Bahadurpur). Four ministers are in the fray from the BJP PramodKumar (Motihari), Suresh Sharma (Muzaffarpur), Binod NarayanJha (Benipatti) and Krishnakumar Rishi (Banmankhi).