Bharat Bandh: Magnitude of Dalit mobilisation could upset BJP's poll calculus, should worry Centre

The magnitude of Dalit mobilisation and aggression shown during Bharat Bandh by community members seeking review of Supreme Court order purportedly diluting provisions of the Schedule Caste and Schedule Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act should cause a great deal of concern to the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP. [caption id=“attachment_4375061” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  File image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PTI[/caption] Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad’s hurried statement that the government was filing a review petition in apex court is indicative that the ruling dispensation was acutely aware of the potential damage. Day’s developments: Reports of arson, destruction of public property, rioting, stone-pelting, attack on security personnel, roads and trains being blockaded across northern and western India clearly suggested that Prasad’s statement had no takers. The protesters, with active support from various political parties, and groups in Opposition, and tacit support from a section of ruling NDA went ahead with their pre-meditated plan.

Perhaps they believed that confrontation with authorities would be more beneficial than negotiation.

That drawing the attention of the nation would make them a social and political force to reckon with. They also knew that the machinery of law enforcement would not unleash their brute force to contain the protests, or do things which it otherwise equipped to do to prevent protesters from turning violent. The pictures of a section of demonstrators carrying lathis and a person in the crowd seen firing from a revolver were disturbing. It is not clear as yet whether they were genuine protesters or miscreants who’d infiltrated an unruly, unorganised crowd. BSP chief Mayawati and Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad lost no time in holding press conferences and lashing out at the Modi government and BJP. Congress president Rahul Gandhi had already taken to Twitter to blast BJP/RSS. Politically, their response was understandable: They couldn’t let go of an opportunity to berate the BJP government and be seen to be sympathetic to the Dalit cause. But then they wouldn’t comment on the kind of vandalism that was seen in various parts of the country, particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Whatever the motive of BJP’s political opponents, the ruling party can’t understate the kind of impact Dalit mobilisation of this kind could have on its electoral prospects. Beyond a win or loss, in an election and in multiple state elections, the BJP as ruling party will also have to address other concerns: The impact on social fabric. In RSS and BJP’s socio-political philosophy, Dalits are part of Hindu social structure and form an important part of Hindutva brand of politics. As per 2011 census, the Scheduled Caste population was around 20.14 crore (16.6 percent of population). While India’s population grew 17.7 percent from 2001-2011, the Dalit population  grew by 20.8 percent. Dalits have traditionally been supportive of the Congress, but the community shifted its support to various regional parties, and to an extent, the BJP. The BJP chose to make Ram Nath Kovind President of India precisely because it wanted to send a message that it was sensitive to the cause of the Dalits. Long ago, Bangaru Laxman was appointed as BJP chief but that experimented ended with failure. However, the party continued to woo Dalits through various other measures.

Dalit outreach has been high on Modi’s agenda since he became prime minister. He’d keep talking of BR Ambedkar and would launch various schemes targeted to benefit this underprivileged community.

In an exclusive interview given to Network 18 Editor-in-Chief Rahul Joshi in September 2016, Modi talked at length about Dalit issues and why there was a spurt in protest in the name of protecting the community. This is what Modi had to say (the context is as relevant today as when this interview was given): “We have a culture dating back thousands of years. We have seen some imbalances in our society. We have to intelligently take our society out of this imbalance… ever since I celebrated the 125th anniversary of Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar, many people thought that Modi is a devotee of Ambedkar. They started having problems. We identified five sacred places associated with Babasaheb Ambedkar: Mau, the birthplace of Babasaheb Ambedkar; Nagpur; Mumbai, where we set up his memorial; memorials at two places in Delhi; or converting the place where he stayed in London, as a memorial. In a way we set up five pilgrimage spots”. “All those self-appointed guardians trying to create tension in the country did not like this: That Modi is with the Dalits. That Modi devotes himself to tribals. I am devoted to the development of all Dalits, oppressed, underprivileged and deprived. Those who see this as an obstruction to their politics are the ones creating trouble. And this is why they are leveling baseless allegations. All those who have fed this country the poison of caste divide have destroyed this country and must stop giving political overtones to social problems. We must go forwards with a purpose”. In summer of 2016, during Simhastha Mahakumbh, BJP president Amit Shah landed at Balmiki Dham temple in Ujjain—a symbol of spirituality of Dalits which stood in defiance of upper caste dominance in Hindu religiosity—to take a holi dip. Shah was not alone. Firstpost reported that the sankaracharyas, mahamadelshwars, gurus, mathadhis, peethadhis all took time off from their akharas, mutts, temples, peeths, camp sites and headquarters in Ujjain, and from the rest of the country, to join him and send a message: Dalits were as much a part of the Hindu community as anyone else. Shah continued his Dalit outreach programme in various states. And that surely helped BJP score victory in various states, including Uttar Pradesh where Dalit population is highest in the country (22 percent). This is a community which not only votes in good numbers but votes decisively in favour of a particular party. Monday’s mobilisation can potentially upset BJP’s electoral calculations in coming elections in Karnataka (where polling is on 12 May) and later in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and finally all-important 2019 general elections. Modi-Shah would surely be conscious of this and make a counter move to retain the faith of the Dalit community.