Wooing Ahoms, countering Congress: Why Pabitra Margherita’s appointment in PM Modi’s ministry is no surprise

The last person to take the oath as a minister on 9 June, 2024, at the front courtyard of Rashtrapati Bhavan was a surprise pick from Assam—Pabitra Margherita. While well-known in Assam, Margherita (whose surname is derived from the coal hub in his home state) is relatively new to the political scene in Delhi. He became a Rajya Sabha MP from Assam in 2022.

Before venturing into politics, Margherita was deeply involved in Assam’s cultural sphere until 2014 when he shifted his focus and joined the BJP during the height of the Modi wave. Extremely articulate and a master of rhetoric, Margherita has been serving as a BJP spokesperson in Assam since 2014. His significant contributions to the cultural field have helped him leverage his popularity effectively in his political career.

Having been involved in various party and government committees, Margherita has quickly absorbed the intricacies of the political landscape. His close relationships with Sarbananda Sonowal, a senior member of the Union Council of Ministers from Assam and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma have further honed his political acumen.

More strategic than surprise

For those unfamiliar with the political dynamics, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to appoint Pabitra Margherita as a Minister of State may seem premature. However, the choice is both reactionary and strategic. The BJP did not anticipate Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi’s victory in the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency, a new and unfamiliar territory for him.

The entire Assam BJP machinery, led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, campaigned aggressively against Gaurav, the son of former state chief minister Tarun Gogoi, aiming to thwart his parliamentary bid. Had Gaurav lost, it would have jeopardised his political future, further weakening the Congress, which is already struggling for survival in the northeastern state.

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The BJP believed that the Ahom community, to which both Gaurav Gogoi and BJP candidate Topon Gogoi belonged, would support the incumbent BJP leader. However, Gaurav proved to be both smarter and more determined, with informed voters backing him. His victory sent shockwaves through the BJP ranks and offered a glimmer of hope for the Congress to revive itself in the state. The outcome underscored that the Ahom vote could not be taken for granted, and neither Prime Minister Modi’s nor Chief Minister Sarma’s stellar reputations would necessarily sway the electorate. This contest was more about individual personalities than intra-community allegiance.

Need for countermeasures

With the Assam election just two years away, the BJP felt an urgent need for a counterweight to Gaurav. Topon Gogoi had proven lacklustre, so the party needed a popular and acceptable face, which is where Pabitra Margherita came in. Media-savvy, social media-friendly, approachable and well-recognised in Assam, Margherita was the ideal choice. How Gaurav handles this new development remains to be seen, but he knows the competition just got a bit tighter.

The importance of the Ahom community in Jorhat cannot be overstated. It includes the Sibsagar district, the historical centre of the Ahom dynasty. Highlighting this significance, just before this year’s elections, Prime Minister Modi unveiled a 125-foot statue honouring the Ahom general Lachit Barphukan, who defended Assam against Mughal invasions. Jorhat, once the capital of the Ahom kingdom, plays a pivotal role in Assam politics.

With over 5 lakh Ahom voters out of a total of 17 lakh, their support was crucial for victory. Gaurav clearly understood the community’s sentiments better than all the BJP stalwarts.

Gaurav’s father, Tarun Gogoi, won from this constituency twice, in 1971 and 1977. Another prominent Ahom and Congress leader, Bijoy Krishna Handique, represented the seat six times until he was defeated by BJP tea tribe leader Kamakhya Tasa in 2014. In 2019, BJP’s Ahom leader Topon Gogoi won the seat. However, a twist in the tale is the ongoing demand for scheduled tribe status for the Ahom community, which remains unfulfilled.

Did overconfidence seal the fate for BJP in Jorhat?

When BJP MLA Mrinal Saikia described Gaurav’s victory as “amazing and significant,” Chief Minister Sarma scoffed, suggesting Saikia might be on his way out of the saffron party. Saikia, representing the Khumtai Assembly constituency, had stated that “Money, Big Publicity, Over Doses of Leaders, and Arrogant Speeches do not always help to win elections,” and he may have been correct. Instead of reacting with hostility, the BJP should recognise that Saikia has merely revealed the party’s blind spot, perhaps too enamored with its taste of power in Assam.

Ahead of the elections, former MP from Jorhat, Topon Kumar Gogoi, confidently predicted retaining the constituency, claiming he would defeat Gaurav by a margin of over two lakh votes, citing an increase in the electorate to 17.5 lakh following the delimitation exercise, as he told PTI in an interview.

Ironically, in 2019, Topon Gogoi won by a margin of 82,653 votes, securing 5,43,288 votes against Congress’ Sushanta Borgohain’s 4,60,635. Borgohain, who was then a member of Congress, later joined the BJP. Borgohain is also from the Ahom community.

Task cut out for Pabitra Margherita

In Assam, Pabitra Margherita’s actions are likely to be more impactful than his responsibilities as a Minister of State. With both Pabitra and Gaurav now in Delhi, their rivalry is poised to intensify. In reality, the contest has only just begun.

The Minister of State position offers increased visibility and sends a subtle message to the Ahom community, highlighting that one of their own is now part of the Union Council of Ministers. Gaurav Gogoi, who served as the Deputy Leader of Congress in the last Lok Sabha and is known for his eloquence and active participation in House debates, has already established himself as a sharp, capable and promising young leader.

For Pabitra Margherita, the challenge is clear: he must match and surpass his rival. Both leaders understand that in Assam, the electorate favours a leader who is a better representative of the Ahom community, not just a bitter contender. The contest has evolved into a sophisticated, strategic and serious battle.