As blood spills in Kashmir, will Erdogan condemn Pakistan while hosting Shehbaz?

On April 22, 2025, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a grand welcome in Saudi Arabia—complete with a 21-gun salute and fighter jet escort—gunfire echoed in the Baisaran Valley of Jammu and Kashmir. A brutal terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley claimed 27 lives, including one Italian and one Israeli tourist, according to top intelligence sources cited by News18.

The Pakistan-based group The Resistance Front (TRF) has claimed responsibility for the attack., casting a grim shadow over a day meant to signal rising regional cooperation and strategic realignment.

Incidentally, US Vice President JD Vance, currently on a four-day visit to India, is in Jaipur today. On April 23, he and his family will travel to Agra to visit the Taj Mahal and the handicrafts village of Shilpgram, before returning to Jaipur later that evening. They are scheduled to depart for the US early on April 24, the Times of India reported.

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The timing was striking. Just as Modi arrived in Jeddah to strengthen ties with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif around the same time arrived in Ankara to deepen relations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. India and Pakistan—rivals on the subcontinent—were being welcomed simultaneously by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, two regional powers whose own relationship has long been marked by quiet competition and ideological divergence.

Modi’s visit, while focussed on trade, defence and energy security unfolded against the backdrop of heightened tensions at home. The attack in Kashmir not only highlighted the persistent threat of cross-border terrorism but also disrupted a moment of fragile optimism. Tourism in the region had been on the rise after years of unrest and the violence came just weeks before the annual Amarnath Yatra, a pilgrimage that draws hundreds of thousands of devotees.

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Despite the tragedy, Modi’s presence in Riyadh sent a clear message: India is pushing forward with its diplomatic and economic agenda, even as it contends with complex internal security challenges. The dual events—Modi in Saudi Arabia and Shehbaz in Turkey—weren’t just coincidental. They reflected parallel strategies, rival visions and deeper shifts in how South Asia’s biggest players are approaching a rapidly evolving regional order.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey: Friendly rivals

To understand why these visits matter, it helps to look at the uneasy relationship between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. As Batool Akhtar explains in Stratheia, even though the two countries work together on business matters, they don’t always agree on politics or religion.

Turkey supports political Islam and groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, while Saudi Arabia is a conservative monarchy that doesn’t support populist Islamic movements. Things got worse after the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, which many believe was ordered by Saudi agents. This created a lot of anger and tension between the two governments.

Even though Saudi Arabia and Turkey still have deep differences, they’ve been trying to improve their relationship because they both want more investment and global influence. They’ve focussed mostly on working together in business. But the bigger disagreements haven’t gone away. The fact that Saudi Arabia invited India’s leader and Turkey invited Pakistan’s leader—who are rivals—shows that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also competing with each other in quiet ways.

Modi’s Saudi visit: Strong messages and closer ties

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia carried symbolic weight and concrete developments. He was welcomed with a 21-gun salute and escorted by Saudi fighter jets. This grand welcome in Jeddah showed how close India and Saudi Arabia have become. According to PTI, Modi will co-lead the second meeting of the India-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). This meeting shows that their partnership is not just talk—it’s becoming more official and organised.

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that defence and economic matters were expected to be the main focus. Trade between India and Saudi Arabia has already reached $43 billion. Energy is a big part of this—Saudi Arabia is India’s third-biggest oil supplier. They are also discussing working together on petroleum refineries and even electric grid connections, which shows India wants to build a long-term energy partnership with Saudi Arabia.

In an interview with Arab News, Modi talked about Saudi Arabia investing in India’s defence manufacturing. This shows India is trying to get military help from more countries, not just its usual partners like Russia and France. India wants to modernise its military and not rely too much on any one country.

Shehbaz’s Turkey visit

In contrast, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Ankara was a clear sign of the strong “brotherly” relationship between Pakistan and Turkey, as described by the Pakistani Prime Minister’s Office. Shehbaz, along with a high-level delegation that included Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Special Assistant to the Prime Minister Tariq Fatemi, met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Their talks aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership based on mutual respect and shared Islamic values.

The timing of Shehbaz’s visit was important. Just a few months earlier, in February, Erdogan had visited Islamabad for the 7th session of the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council, where 24 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were signed. This visit was part of continuing the momentum from that meeting.

Bilateral trade between the two countries reached a record $1.4 billion in 2024, marking a 30 per cent increase from the year before. Both countries are eager to keep building on this success. Erdogan even mentioned that the goal is to expand their trade to $5 billion, which is both an ambitious and strategic target.

Defence cooperation is a key focus in Pakistan’s growing relationship with Turkey. Facing economic challenges and increasing military ties with China, Pakistan sees Turkey as an important partner in producing drones, military vehicles and small arms. Erdogan has also encouraged Turkish investors to expand in Pakistan, signalling that Turkey views Pakistan as a long-term ally in South Asia. This partnership not only strengthens Pakistan’s defence capabilities but also helps Turkey increase its influence in the broader Islamic world.

Meanwhile, India and Turkey are also looking to boost their bilateral ties. In March this year, both countries sought to establish new momentum by firming up plans to enhance trade, investment and cooperation in emerging fields like defence, technology and innovation.

This shared commitment to strengthening their relationship was clearly highlighted at a joint think tank conference in Ankara. Diplomats, scholars and experts were united in their view that it’s time to move beyond past differences, especially regarding Kashmir and embrace a new chapter in India-Turkey relations.

Parallel strategies, divergent realities

Both visits—Modi’s to Saudi Arabia and Shehbaz’s to Turkey—show two different strategies based on very different situations.

Modi’s visit focusses on practical goals like energy security, military upgrades and regional influence. His aim is to show that India is a strong, independent country that is reliable for investment and can act as a bridge between Western countries and the Gulf region.

On the other hand, Shehbaz’s visit is more about emotional and ideological connections. It also reflects Pakistan’s need for financial help. With Pakistan’s economy closely watched by the IMF and low foreign currency reserves, Turkey is offering both support and possible investment through private companies.

Modi’s trip to Saudi Arabia shows India as a global player on equal terms with Riyadh. In contrast, Shehbaz’s visit to Turkey shows Pakistan’s need to stay relevant by building strong partnerships.

Hidden messages in these visits

There is also a deeper political message in these trips. Modi’s grand welcome in Riyadh—with cultural performances and a 21-gun salute—stands out when compared to Pakistan’s cooling ties with Saudi Arabia. Once one of Pakistan’s biggest donors and closest allies, Saudi Arabia has grown frustrated with Pakistan, especially over disagreements on foreign policy matters like Iran and Yemen.

In fact, in 2020, Saudi Arabia asked Pakistan to repay a $1 billion loan early, which clearly showed a change in their relationship. Since then, Pakistan has leaned more on Turkey and China. Turkey, on its part, uses its close ties with Pakistan to support its image as a leader in the Islamic world, sometimes pushing back against Saudi Arabia’s leadership.

This quiet competition between Saudi Arabia and Turkey—through their ties with India and Pakistan—also shows up in international forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and events like defence industry expos.

A tale of two visions

The parallel visits of Modi and Shehbaz Sharif to two rival countries tell a bigger story about how India and Pakistan see their roles in the world—each with a different vision.

Under Prime Minister Modi, India is showing confidence, strength and big ambitions. His outreach to Saudi Arabia is not just about deepening Gulf ties but also about presenting India as a global power focussed on energy security and strategic influence.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Sharif is looking for stability, support and solidarity. Pakistan’s closeness with Turkey shows both the need for help and a sense of brotherhood, tied together by shared Islamic values but mainly driven by economic pressure.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are using these visits to quietly show their own rivalry. Both are trying to balance big dreams with practical goals—mixing ideology with smart diplomacy.

In today’s world, where countries are forming new alliances based on strategy and self-interest, April 22, 2025, gave us a clear look at how the region is changing. It showed shifting power in the Muslim world, the different paths India and Pakistan are taking and how their long-standing conflict still casts a shadow.