Al Qaeda threat: Gogoi may not be off the mark on possible terror nexus

Enemies and detractors of India are plotting something big on the terror front to mar the months-long festive phase which is round the corner. Intelligence Bureau (IB) is learnt to have sent discreet nation-wide alerts to this effect, though several Gujarat cities, Mumbai and Delhi are supposed to be high on the list of terror outfits. This is not to bamboozle or scare the common man in India but to forewarn them as this is the sense that this writer has got from several top sources in the Indian security/strategic/intelligence establishment in the last few days. Being forewarned is being forearmed! The threat is not to be dismissed lightly. A senior security honcho told this writer a couple of days ago that he was not able to sleep well in view of the heightened terror threat in the country.[caption id=“attachment_1723055” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. PTI[/caption] At the same time, India’s security managers are confident of dealing effectively with terrorists of all hues. Is India facing the terror threat from Al Qaeda’s newest baby Al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)? Or is the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS) wading into the Indian terror scenario? Top officials say ’no’ to both the questions. Instead, their main concern is the India’s notorious baiter Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and its favourite subsidiary, the supposed India-homegrown outfit Indian Mujahideen (IM). Though they do not rule out the possibility of the likes of the LeT and IM “scoring the goals” and passing these off into the account of the AQIS to project that India is at the epicenter of “international jehad”, the fact is that the AQIS has no base in India. This is despite the fact that Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has publicly hinted at a terror threat from AQIS during the upcoming Durga Puja. But the ground reality is that both the so-called AQIS or even Al Qaeda do not have a proven base in India and they will have to rely on the Let and IM, the known bug-bears of India’s security establishment, for operational reasons. The Assam chief minister said at a press conference in Guwahati on Saturday that Al Qaeda was trying to set up base in Assam and had a tacit understanding with Ulfa in this regard. Gogoi remarked thus: “We have got some information that Al Qaeda is trying to gain access to Assam. We have taken steps to prevent any such development and asked all concerned to remain cautious.” Asked specifically about linkages between Ulfa and Al Qaeda, Gogoi had this to say: “I think they have links. Even if there is no direct link as of now, they have tacit understanding … They never criticize each other.” While the Modi government is well aware of the upcoming threats on the terror front, it is silently engaged in a big way to pre-empt the possible terror attacks. If one or two incidents are not averted, the government’s idea is to ensure that the active terror outfits are nullified and neutralized at the earliest. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is the government’s point person for making sure that terror outfits do not run amok. The idea, from the government’s perspective, is to ensure a “minimum hits and maximum prevention” strategy. The terror threat in India is accentuated further by two extraneous factors: Pakistan’s increased unprovoked firing on the Indian borders and more frequent and audacious incursions by the Chinese troops into the Indian territory. As of now there is nothing to suggest a conscious synergy, leave aside a collaboration, between Pakistan and China in needling India on the terror front. If this happens, it will inevitably bring alive the worst nightmare of the Indian strategic-cum-security establishment: a grandiose pincer strategy directed against India by its two contiguous neighbours who have fought a war with India: Pakistan and China. However, mercifully there are no concrete inputs thus far suggesting that China is helping Pakistan in fomenting terror attacks against India. But the Indian agencies are keeping their eyes and ears wide open. The signals from the Indian strategic establishment to this writer are that the Modi government is well aware of the threats posed from terror outfits and is on an overdrive covertly to nip the threat in the bud. But a terrorist has to be lucky and successful only once while the government agencies have to be successful every time! The writer is Firstpost consulting cditor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.