Ajit Doval as National Security Advisor, but who would be his deputy?

Now that Ajit Doval has been appointed as the National Security Advisor (NSA), it will be worthwhile to examine who would be named as his deputy and why.

It is for sure that the next deputy NSA will be a diplomat. After all, this is the convention and an unwritten, unspoken understanding between the IFS and IPS lobbies.

So, who could be the next deputy NSA?

The names being bandied about include Hardeep Puri, who served as the Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations from 2009 to 2013, Shyam Saran and Kanwal Sibal, both former foreign secretaries.

But then all these three senior diplomats were supposed to be in the race for the post of NSA.

Shyam Saran, who was Indian foreign secretary from 2004 to 2006 and after his retirement served as Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for Indo-US civil nuclear issues and later as Special Envoy and Chief Negotiator on Climate Change, may not agree to serve as second fiddle to Doval, largely because of his profile though he is slightly junior to Doval.

Sibal is too senior for Doval having served as the Indian foreign secretary for 20 months between 2002 and 2003.

Hardeep Puri, who joined BJP recently, is considered too close to a senior cabinet minister in the Modi government and thus may be unwanted by both Modi and Doval for their own respective reasons.

Here it must be said that it will be Modi, not Doval, who will be calling the shots on all appointments, including that of the Deputy NSA. But if Modi has to give a free hand to Doval – which would be a deemed pre-requisite from Doval ‘s point of view – Doval’s word would carry enormous weight in the selection the next deputy NSA. Doval may have other choices.

Now let’s get to a very pertinent question – who was India’s most powerful NSA ever and why?

India has had only four NSAs before Doval. These were: Brajesh Mishra (November 1998-May 2004), JN Dixit (May 2004-January 2005), MK Narayanan (January 2005-January 2010) and Shivshankar Menon (January 2010-May 2014).

Doval is the second NSA from the IPS after Narayanan. The rest were all career diplomats.

Clearly, the most powerful NSA ever was Brajesh Mishra because he was also the Principal Secretary to the PM. This kind of profile and this kind of proximity with the head of the government has not been enjoyed by anyone else for the last one decade.

Modi is eager to follow in the footsteps of Vajpayee and would like to do even better than Vajpayee. He already has a Principal Secretary in Nripendra Mishra. Clearly, Modi did not want to vest all strategic powers in one individual.

Modi did not want his own Brajesh Mishra, so to speak; for whatever reasons which are not far to seek.

Therefore, he truncated the two power centers, implicitly conveying that he is the overall boss. Even the UPA government did not follow the Vajpayee-Brajesh Mishra model.

But then Modi has to deliver as PM. He won’t be able to do that unless he gives reasonable freedom to each of his power centers – his Principal Secretary and the NSA.

So, the next best scenario for Modi is to give complete freedom to both his power poles, though without giving either unbridled powers.

This is the Modi model of governance. You take it or leave it!

Considering that Doval would have a say in appointing his deputy, his choice may be much different.

Already there are reports that S. Jaishankar, a career diplomat and currently India’s ambassador in the United States may be drafted in as Foreign Policy Advisor to the PM.

If this were to be so, it would make the post of deputy NSA redundant. It would also lessen the importance of Doval, apart from External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh.

The foreign secretary would not figure in Modi’s do’s and don’ts. As for Swaraj’s wings getting clipped, the scenario would suit perfectly for Modi.

But the problem is that it won’t play out perfectly for Doval. No NSA would like another power centre around the PM, even if it is in the sphere of foreign policy which is not supposed to be Doval’s strong area.

But then what about giving a free hand to the NSA?

Ideally, the purposes of both Modi and Doval can be met if a low-profile diplomat, preferably serving, is picked as the deputy NSA.

Who can that be?

Well, no one knows. But two unlikely names should be in the reckoning: PS Raghavan and Arun Kumar Singh, India’s current ambassadors in Russia and France respectively.

Both Raghavan and Singh boast of an outstanding record. But their USP would be that both should be available as the post of deputy NSA would surely be a kick-up in their career and both are junior enough not to challenge the supremacy of Doval.

These are just a few scenarios and options. Nothing is decided as of now. Watch this space!

*The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.