Almost a third of the Indian population will be obese by 2050. Why is obesity on the rise?

Pizzas, samosas, cold drinks, and burgers—India’s love for fast food is no secret. But behind this growing obsession lies a troubling reality: by 2050, India is set to have the second-highest number of overweight and obese people in the world.

A new study by The Lancet, published on Monday, warns that nearly 450 million (45 crore) Indians—almost a third of the population—could be overweight or obese in the next 25 years. Worryingly, it will be prevalent in those between the ages of 15 and 24.

On a global scale, the situation isn’t much better. The study estimates that by 2050, more than half of all adults (3.8 billion) and a third of children and adolescents (746 million) worldwide will be overweight or obese.

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If this trend continues unchecked, India, which is the world’s most populous country, is looking at a future riddled with health problems such as diabetes, heart disease, and an overburdened economy.

So, what’s behind this rapid rise in obesity? And is there still time to reverse the trend? On this World Obesity Day, let’s break down the numbers, the risks, and the causes of India’s growing weight problem.

Big numbers

Overweight and obesity, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), refer to abnormal or excessive fat accumulation that poses a serious risk to health. In India, these conditions are becoming alarmingly common, with numbers rising at an alarming rate.

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According to the latest Global Burden of Disease studies, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and published in The Lancet, obesity in India is set to surge dramatically. By 2050, the number of overweight or obese individuals aged 15-24 is expected to increase significantly, with 2.27 crore young men and 1.69 crore young women projected to be affected.

While obesity was relatively rare in India until the 1990s, with just 0.33 crore adult women and 0.4 crore adult men being overweight or obese, the numbers skyrocketed over the next two decades. By 2021, the figures had swelled to 1.3 crore women and 1.68 crore men.

The research also found that more than half of the world’s adults with overweight or obesity in 2021 were concentrated in just eight countries: China (402 million), India (180 million), the USA (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).

“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” lead author of the study Emmanuela Gakidou said at the IHME.

The study found an equally concerning situation for children in India. Among boys aged 5-14, the prevalence of obesity and overweight status increased from 0.46 crore in 1990 to 1.3 crore in 2021, and is projected to reach staggering 1.6 crore by 2050. A similar trend is seen among girls in the same age group, where the numbers rose from 0.45 crore in 1990 to 1.24 crore in 2021, with an estimated increase to 1.44 crore by 2050.

Why this matters

Obesity is often called the ‘mother of all diseases’, and for a good reason. It’s not just about carrying extra weight—it’s a major trigger for some of the deadliest health conditions affecting millions worldwide.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), excess weight in adulthood significantly increases the risk of poor health and early death, making obesity a silent epidemic.

“Obesity is not merely a cosmetic concern but a severe medical condition that can lead to diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and even various types of cancer,” said Dr Sachin Ambekar, Medical Director of Minimal Access Smart Surgery Hospital (MASSH), in an interview with NewsWeek.

The numbers speak for themselves. India has the highest number of people with diabetes in the world, with an estimated 101 million (over 10 crore) cases. The burden of cancer is also increasing—according to the Indian Council of Medical Research-National Cancer Registry Programme (ICMR-NCRP), cancer cases in India are projected to rise from 14.6 lakh in 2022 to 15.7 lakh by 2025.

Additionally, non-communicable diseases (NCDs)—including diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and strokes—are responsible for nearly 60 per cent of all deaths in the country.

But while we focus on obesity impacting Indian adults, its impact on children and adolescents is equally troubling.

Carrying excess weight at a young age can lead to lifelong medical and psychological challenges. The WHO warns that childhood obesity increases the risk of developing chronic diseases earlier in life, while also affecting academic performance and overall quality of life, as they are often subjected to stigma, discrimination, and bullying.

Why is obesity on the rise in India?

The roots of India’s obesity crisis lie in multiple factors.

One of the biggest culprits is our changing dietary habits. Fast food and processed snacks have taken over our meals. The cheap and easy to access ultra-processed foods packed with sugar, salt, and unhealthy fats, it’s no surprise that obesity rates are climbing. Researchers have noted that between 2009 and 2019, India saw one of the fastest-growing increases in the sales of processed foods, alongside Cameroon and Vietnam.

Then there’s urbanisation and the modern lifestyle—where convenience often comes at the cost of health. “Increasing urbanisation has led to reduced physical activity, longer commute times, and desk-bound jobs… Rising work-related stress, poor sleep, and mental health disorders have been linked to obesity," says Aparna Govil Bhasker, who leads the scientific committee for the Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Society of India, in an interview with The Indian Express.

On top of that, Indians just aren’t moving enough. A study published in The Lancet Global Health last year found that a lmost half of all Indians aren’t physically active enough. What’s even more concerning is the gender gap—while 42 per cent of men in India don’t get enough exercise, the number is much higher for women at 57 per cent.

As obesity levels soar, experts warn that the time to act is now. PM Modi even launched an anti-obesity campaign through his monthly radio programme to spread awareness regarding obesity and its impact on health.

With input from agencies