Can India reach ICC WTC final after losing third Test against New Zealand in Mumbai? Scenarios explained

India suffered a 25-run loss to New Zealand in the third and final Test in Mumbai on Sunday, and it’s a loss that puts India in a spot of bother as far as their World Test Championship final (WTC) hopes are concerned. The Rohit Sharma-led side have not just lost 3-0 to the Black Caps in the home Test series , but also slipped to second place in the latest World Test Championship (WTC) standings.

Australia have climbed to top spot in the WTC standings with 62.50 points. Second-placed India’s PCT has gone below 60, 58.33 to be exact.

On Sunday (3 November), India had been set a target of 147 to chase down after New Zealand were dismissed for 174 in their second innings. This was after Ravindra Jadeja led a spirited effort with the ball, finishing the second innings with figures of 5/55. In the chase, none of the batters barring Rishabh Pant (64) got going and India were eventually all out for 121 in 29.1 overs.

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The Rohit Sharma-led hosts were underwhelming in the Test series against the Black Caps. India suffered an eight-wicket defeat at Bengaluru's M Chinnaswamy Stadium after getting bowled out for 46 in the first innings. That was followed by a 113-run loss in Pune inside three days , as the hosts failed to keep the series alive despite restricting their opponents to 259 and 255.

India, as a result, suffered their first Test series defeat at home since the 1-2 loss against England in December 2012, ending a streak of 18 consecutive series wins. New Zealand, on the other hand, had not won a Test in India in 36 years, only to win two in a space of 10 days to pull off their first ever Test series victory on Indian soil.

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India’s potential pathway to the WTC final has become more complicated following their loss to the Kiwis in Mumbai.

How will a defeat in Mumbai affect India’s chances of reaching ICC WTC final next year?

India needed to win four out of their last six Tests of the 2023-25 WTC cycle in order to qualify for a third consecutive final without having to depend on other teams. And beating New Zealand in Mumbai before catching the flight to Australia would have made things somewhat easier for Rohit and Co – not that winning three games in the five-Test series Down Under is going to be an easy task.

A defeat in Mumbai has put India in a dangerous position. India suffered a 0-3 series clean sweep at home for the first-ever time, and this is their first series clean sweep at home since 2000, when the Indians had lost 0-2 to South Africa. In order to secure direct qualification for the WTC final without depending on other teams, India had to win four out of their last six matches of the 2023-25 cycle.

India have only five more Tests in the ongoing cycle, and all of them are against Australia in Australia, with the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series starting with the first Test in Perth from 22 November. India need to win four out of those five matches, and draw the other one match if they are to qualify for the WTC final without depending on other results.

Also Read | Which teams can spoil India's hopes of reaching WTC Final?

It is by no means impossible, as India have won their last two Test assignments in Australia. But the current Test team led by Pat Cummins has been a lot more successful than the one that was captained by Tim Paine, with the former helping the Aussies win the World Test Championship final with a victory over India at The Oval last year.

India, thus, will in all probability depend on other results to go their way for them to advance to the final and their eyes will be fixed on South Africa, who play two home Tests each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan after completing a 2-0 sweep in Bangladesh, which has placed them at the fourth spot with a points percentage of 54.17.

Sri Lanka (55.56) remain at the third spot after a 2-0 sweep against New Zealand at home, but face an almighty challenge against the Proteas in their backyard as they aim to reach the final of an ICC event for the first time in over a decade.