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WTC Final scenarios: Which teams can spoil India's hopes of reaching summit clash?
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  • WTC Final scenarios: Which teams can spoil India's hopes of reaching summit clash?

WTC Final scenarios: Which teams can spoil India's hopes of reaching summit clash?

FirstCricket Staff • October 28, 2024, 09:09:32 IST
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While India remain on top of the WTC standings, one major concern is that other teams are slowly catching up to them as the competition for the final heats up.

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WTC Final scenarios: Which teams can spoil India's hopes of reaching summit clash?
New Zealand have handed India a huge blow in terms of qualifying for the WTC final next year. AP

Team India have their task cut out as far as their qualification hopes for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) is concerned. India recently surrendered the Test series to New Zealand following a 113-run defeat in the second Test in Pune. The Rohit Sharma-led side still have six Tests in the current cycle of WTC, but have a lot to do in their bid to qualify for next year’s WTC final at Lord’s.

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WTC standings

PositionTeamMatchesWonLostDrawPoint deductionsPointsPoints percentage
1India1384129862.82
2Australia12831109062.50
3Sri Lanka954006055.56
4New Zealand1055006050
5South Africa733104047.62
6England1999109340.79
7Pakistan1046084033.33
8Bangladesh936033330.56
9West Indies916202018.52

While India remain on top of the WTC standings, one major concern is that other teams are slowly catching up to them as the competition for the final heats up. Which are the teams apart from India who remain in contention for the WTC final? We take a look:

Australia (2nd place, PCT 62.50)

Australia are India’s nearest competitors for a spot in the final. India have a points percentage (PCT) of 62.82 whereas Australia have a PCT of 62.50, which means India’s lead at the top is very narrow. Should Australia beat India 3-2 and defeat Sri Lanka 1-0, then Australia’s PCT will be 62.28, which will be more than India’s.

Australia face India in a marquee Test series at home from November. Reuters

Australia will directly qualify for the WTC final if they win five out of their last seven matches in the current WTC cycle.

Sri Lanka (3rd place, PCT 55.56)

Two victories over New Zealand in the two-match Test series have put Sri Lanka in a good position to qualify for the WTC final. Sri Lanka have four Tests remaining in the current WTC cycle, but those are against South Africa (two away Tests) and Australia (two home Tests). Both South Africa and Australia are also in strong contention for the final, so it won’t be that straightforward for Sri Lanka.

All Sri Lanka need to do to qualify for the final is win each of those four Tests. That will take their PCT to 69.23.

Should they win three matches but lose another, Sri Lanka’s PCT will be 61.54. They will remain alive for qualifying for the final, but will be heavily dependent on other teams to do them a favour.

New Zealand (4th place, PCT 50)

Two wins over India in the ongoing three-match series have brought New Zealand back into the WTC final picture. The Kiwis have four Tests remaining. This includes the third Test against India that starts from Friday as well as a three-match Test series against England at home. Winning all of those Tests will take the Black Caps to a PCT of 64.29. New Zealand still won’t be guaranteed a spot in the final, but will keep themselves alive nevertheless.

New Zealand cannot afford to lose even one Test out of their remaining four. That will see their PCT being reduced to 57.14.

South Africa (5th  place, PCT 47.62)

South Africa recently defeated Bangladesh by seven wickets in the first Test in Dhaka, and play one more Test against the Tigers, in Chattogram. They also host Sri Lanka and Pakistan for two Tests each. Winning every remaining match will take the Proteas to a PCT of 69.44. That will secure qualification to the WTC final. Having said that, only one team between India and Australia will be able to surpass South Africa’s PCT in such a scenario.

South Africa are still in with a chance to qualify for the WTC final. Reuters

South Africa’s PCT will be 63.89 should they win four matches and draw one match. Should they win four and lose another, that will leave South Africa with a PCT of 61.11. They will stay alive but will need other teams to play their part if the Proteas are to qualify for the WTC final.

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