 "WTC Final scenarios: How India, Australia, Sri Lanka, Zealand and South Africa can qualify for summit clash")
The race for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final at Lord’s next year is heating up, with five teams, including India, still in contention. Team India, after going down 0-3 to New Zealand in the recently-concluded Test series at home, will have their task cut out against Australia in the five-match Test series Down Under that begins in Perth on 22 November.
So much so that India’s win percentage (PCT) dropped to 58.33 after the series loss to New Zealand. Australia (62.50 PCT) thus climbed to the number one position in the WTC standings as India slipped to second place.
World Test Championship 2023-25 standings
| Position | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | Point deductions | Points | Points percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 90 | 62.50 |
| 2 | India | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 98 | 58.33 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 54.55 |
| 5 | South Africa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 54.17 |
| 6 | England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 40.79 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 27.50 |
| 9 | West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.52 |
Other teams in the fray to make the WTC final are Australia, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa. How can these teams qualify for the WTC final next year? We take a look at the latest possible scenarios:
Australia (1st place, PCT 62.50)
Remaining fixtures: vs India (five Tests at home), vs Sri Lanka (two Tests away)
Australia, the defending WTC champions, are currently in first place in the WTC standings but qualifying for the final is still easier said than done. They play seven more Tests in the ongoing WTC cycle and must win at least four of these Tests. A 5-0 series win over India will guarantee the Aussies a spot in the final.
Australia will remain in front of India even if they beat Rohit Sharma and Co by a narrow 3-2 margin. They can also afford to lose the Test series against Sri Lanka, but the Aussies will be looking for perfection like they always do. Even a 2-2 draw against India will keep Australia’s hopes alive. Australia can finish with a PCT of 76.32 if all goes well for them.
India (2nd place, PCT 58.33)
Remaining fixtures: vs Australia (five Tests away)
India lost the three-match Test series against New Zealand at home, and that has left Rohit Sharma and Co with a lot of work to do. India need to beat Australia 4-0 to directly qualify for the final. That means India need to win four matches and draw one. India have won the last two Test series in Australia, but the upcoming tour will be a bit more challenging especially with a place in the WTC final at stake.
Should India beat Australia 4-0, that will take their PCT to 65.79. Even if the Kiwis beat England 3-0, New Zealand will only have a PCT of 64.29. Of course, India cannot afford a series loss at the hands of Australia which would bring down curtains on their WTC hopes. Any series win margin over Australia apart from 4-0 will leave India asking other teams for favours to qualify for the final.
Sri Lanka (3rd place, PCT 55.56)
Remaining fixtures: vs South Africa (two Tests away), vs Australia (two Tests at home)
Sri Lanka registered a consolation eight-wicket win over England in the third Test at The Oval in September, and followed it up with two convincing victories against New Zealand at home later in September. Sri Lanka play two Tests each against fellow contenders South Africa and Australia, and four wins in as any matches will not only take them to a PCT of 69.23, but also ensure them a spot in the WTC final.
If Sri Lanka win three matches and lose one, they will have a PCT of 61.54. That will keep the Lankans alive but will need other teams to do them a favour.
New Zealand (4th place, PCT 54.55)
Remaining fixtures: vs England (three Tests at home)
New Zealand are coming fresh off a historic 3-0 Test series win over India in India, and play three more Tests. This time it’s against England who are already eliminated.
The Black Caps can reach a PCT of 64.29 if they beat England 3-0 and keep them alive. New Zealand’s PCT will read 57.14 if they beat England 2-1. That will leave them waiting for other results to qualify.
South Africa (5th place, PCT 54.17)
Remaining fixtures: vs Sri Lanka (two Tests at home), vs Pakistan (two Tests at home)
Winning all four Tests will take South Africa to a PCT of 69.44. That will guarantee them a spot in the WTC final irrespective of other results. Their PCT will lead 63.89 should they win three matches and draw one. If they win three matches and lose another, their PCT will be 61.11. That will be enough for them depending on how other results turn out to be.
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