Yahya Sinwar is dead. Will Israel’s war with Hamas end now?

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is dead. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) announced on Thursday (October 17) evening that it had “eliminated” the 62-year-old militant in a targeted ground operation in Rafah in southern Gaza.

Sinwar’s death is so far Israel’s biggest victory in its war with Hamas in Gaza which began last October after the Palestinian militant group’s surprise attack. Now that Israel has taken out the Hamas leader believed to be the architect of the October 7 attacks, will it end the war in Gaza?

Let’s understand.

Israel kills Yahya Sinwar

Sinwar was among the three Hamas militants killed on Wednesday after the IDF opened fire on two buildings in Rafah. Later, a tank fired a shell at Sinwar, killing him, as per Times of Israel.

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When IDF troops entered the building on Thursday, they realised that one of the slain militants was Sinwar. A DNA test confirmed it was the body of the Hamas leader.

According to Israel, he was not killed in a planned special forces operation but in a chance encounter.

Born in a refugee camp in south Gaza in 1962, Sinwar was declared “a dead man walking” by Israel after the October 7 attacks.

After political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli bombing in Tehran in July, Sinwar took over that role. Close to Iran, he was resisting a political compromise with Israel.

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Sinwar’s death comes at a time when Israel has been focusing its military resources on its battle with Hezbollah in Lebanon and its escalating conflict with Iran.

Will Israel end the war?

The pressure on Israel to end the war in Gaza and bring back the hostages is expected to increase.

Israel’s war objectives were to destroy Hamas, kill all its leaders and ensure the return of all 250 hostages. It has failed to achieve these so far.

However, with Sinwar ’s killing, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can tell the public that one of the aims of the deadly war has been reached, noted Associated Press (AP).

The death of Sinwar is a shot in the arm for the Israeli military and its political leadership.

Israeli PM Netanyahu, who faced flak for the October 7 attacks, has declared it is not the end of war. “Today we made clear once again what happens to those who harm us. Today we once again showed the world the victory of good over evil.

“But the war, my dear ones, is not over yet. It is difficult, and it is costing us dearly.”

“Great challenges still lie ahead of us. We need endurance, unity, courage, and steadfastness. Together we will fight, and with God’s help – together we will win.”

Israel’s war in Gaza has killed at least 42,000 Palestinians and triggered a humanitarian crisis in the narrow enclave.

Sinwar’s killing is likely to strengthen Netanyahu’s political position and “rally his hardline rightwing support base”, reported The Guardian.

“Eliminating Hamas leadership—and most importantly, killing Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 massacre—has been a central goal for Israel in its Gaza war. The achievement will mark yet another personal victory for Netanyahu, whose polling has been bolstered with each targeted assassination, and for Israel’s military,” according to Carmiel Arbit, a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, an American think tank.

“But Sinwar’s death alone does not guarantee the circumstances necessary for Netanyahu to declare an end to the war as so many hope. The United States is likely to further increase its pressure on both sides to come to a ceasefire agreement, hoping that a weakened Hamas and an empowered Israel will be more ready to bring the conflict to its close,” she added.

In a brief statement on Sinwar’s killing, US Vice President Kamala Harris said, “This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.”

But it is not sure if Netanyahu will listen. As per BBC, many Israelis are of the view that their PM wants to drag out the war with Hamas to avoid facing questions about the security failure that led the Palestinian group’s militants to enter Israel and kill about 1,200 people, as well as postpone his trial for alleged corruption.

Prolonging the war allows Netanyahu to enjoy the support that has been improving since Israel’s successes in Lebanon, including the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Now, there could be a boost for ceasefire negotiations as Sinwar, who was accused of blocking the deal, is gone. A lot will also depend on what Israel does next and who succeeds Sinwar as the new Hamas leader.

Over 100 hostages are still in Gaza, of whom only half are thought to still be alive.

Speaking to BBC, Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, implored the Israeli PM, “Netanyahu, don’t bury the hostages. Go out now to the mediators and to the public and lay out a new Israeli initiative.”

“For my Matan and the rest of the hostages in the tunnels, time has run out. You have the victory pictures. Now bring a deal!”

Nimrod Novik, former senior adviser to the late Israeli PM Shimon Peres, told Vox that this is a great opportunity for Netanyahu “to declare victory” and press for a ceasefire deal and hostage release deal.

However, whether the Israeli PM will do so is uncertain. He has already declared that the war in Gaza and Lebanon would continue.

Netanyahu is in power with the support of two far-right parties that have threatened to topple his government if the Gaza war ends under a ceasefire deal. It is highly unlikely that he will order an end to all military campaigns immediately.

While American President Joe Biden sees Sinwar ’s death as the “day after”, the US officials are not making bold statements that the war will end overnight.

“We don’t know what this means yet,” there could be “rapid” movement towards a ceasefire and hostage deal or “there could still be a long path ahead,” a US official told CNN.

Netanyahu has two options: he could either declare victory in Gaza and end operations there or double down. Many Israelis are calling for the former.

Speaking to _The Washington Pos_t, Shira Efron, a former IDF reservist and now director of policy research at the Israel Policy Forum, said there are now “essentially two paths Israel can take. … The first is basically, this is an opportunity to take the win. This is the ultimate win — the ladder we needed to climb down and end the war, get back the hostages” and reach a deal with “whoever is left in the Hamas leadership.”

The second option for the Israeli PM and his hardline coalition “is to say Hamas is on the verge” of complete destruction “and we have to continue the offensive,” Efron added.

What Sinwar’s killing means for Hamas

Sinwar’s death is a big setback for Hamas. Israel has killed several of the Palestinian militant group’s leaders in recent months.

In March, an Israeli strike killed Marwan Issa, deputy leader of Hamas’ military wing. Haniyeh was assassinated in July.

Israel claimed it killed Mohammed Deif, Hamas’ military chief and co-mastermind of the October 7 attack, in August. Hamas has not confirmed his death.

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, told AP that Sinwar’s killing was a “major blow” to Hamas. But it was “not fatal since everyone is replaceable,” he added.

For Hamas, it is going to be chaos. It will now have to pick a new leader. But who will replace Sinwar? And will that leader be more accommodating to reaching ceasefire and hostage deals with Israel? Only time will tell.

With inputs from agencies