 "Ghost of Gaza: How Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar remains as elusive as ever to Israeli and American intelligence")
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has been a figure of intense scrutiny for Israeli and American intelligence services. Despite significant efforts, including cutting-edge technology and strategic military operations, Sinwar has managed to evade capture.
This ongoing manhunt, which has become one of the most intricate and frustrating in modern history, reflects both the complexity of the conflict in Gaza and the cunning of Sinwar himself.
61-year-old Sinwar, often compared to Osama bin Laden, has been able to maintain control over Hamas and direct military operations, all while staying hidden from one of the most sophisticated intelligence networks in the world.
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The parallels between Sinwar and bin Laden are striking, yet Sinwar’s situation is even more complex because, unlike bin Laden who focused on evading detection after 9/11, Sinwar continues to actively lead Hamas in its military campaign against Israel.
In late January 2024, Israeli commandos launched a raid on a tunnel complex in Khan Younis, Gaza, based on intelligence that Sinwar was hiding there, reported The New York Times (NYT). The raid, which was seen as a significant opportunity to capture the Hamas leader, ultimately fell short.
Sinwar had fled the underground bunker just days before the operation, leaving behind only documents and approximately $1 million in shekels. The documents found provided little insight into his current location, and the million shekels, while substantial, offered no clues about his movements. Despite the high hopes tied to this operation, it was clear that the hunt for Sinwar would be far more challenging than anticipated.
How has Sinwar managed to evade capture?
Sinwar’s ability to evade capture is largely attributed to his abandonment of electronic communication. According to NYT, US and Israeli intelligence services believe that he relies on a network of human couriers to relay messages.
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More ShortsThis method, reminiscent of tactics used by bin Laden, has made it incredibly difficult for intelligence agencies to intercept or trace his communications. The exact workings of this courier system remain a mystery.
In the early months of the conflict, Sinwar did use cell and satellite phones, which allowed Israeli and US spy agencies to monitor some of his conversations. However, this brief window of opportunity closed as Sinwar transitioned entirely to his courier network.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, understanding the importance of these communication channels, even advocated for the resupply of Gaza with fuel to keep the tunnel-based cell networks operational, despite opposition from within the Israeli government.
How has Gaza’s tunnel network aided Sinwar?
Before the outbreak of the current conflict, Sinwar was a visible figure in Gaza, frequently appearing in interviews and even presenting awards on television. However, since the war began, he has retreated into the labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, moving his operations underground to avoid detection.
Israeli intelligence officials believe that during the early weeks of the conflict, Sinwar was living in tunnels beneath Gaza City, the largest city in the strip and a primary target of Israeli military forces, reported NYT.
One notable discovery during an early raid on these tunnels was a video showing Sinwar in the process of moving his family to a different hiding spot. This video, filmed just days before the raid, provided a rare glimpse of Sinwar’s underground existence but did little to help pinpoint his exact location.
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Israeli officials believe that Sinwar kept his family with him for at least the first six months of the war.
According to NYT, in November 2023, a freed Israeli hostage revealed that Sinwar had personally addressed a group of Israeli captives not long after the October 7 attacks. Speaking in Hebrew, which he learned during his years in an Israeli prison, Sinwar assured them that they were safe and would not be harmed. This rare firsthand account defined Sinwar’s continued influence and control, even while in hiding.
Why do Israel & the US want to neutralise Sinwar?
Yahya Sinwar, who assumed leadership of Hamas after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July 2023, has long been a target for Israeli forces. His leadership has been marked by a hands-on approach to military operations, unlike some of his predecessors who operated more from behind the scenes.
Sinwar’s direct involvement in the October 7 attacks, which resulted in the deaths of at least 1,200 Israelis, solidified his reputation as the architect of one of the deadliest assaults in Israel’s history.
Despite his elusiveness, Sinwar remains a central figure in Hamas, with diplomats involved in ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, indicating that his input is essential for any significant decisions.
This has made the task of capturing or killing him even more critical for Israel. As the most respected leader within Hamas, Sinwar’s approval is seen as necessary for implementing any agreements reached in negotiations.
How far has Israeli & US intelligence come?
The hunt for Yahya Sinwar has seen unprecedented collaboration between US and Israeli intelligence agencies. A special unit within the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence service, has been tasked with locating Sinwar, while American intelligence agencies have been providing significant support.
This includes the deployment of ground-penetrating radar to help map the extensive tunnel network beneath Gaza, a crucial tool in the search for Sinwar and other Hamas leaders.
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The United States has also established a task force within the CIA dedicated to this mission, with special operations troops advising the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on tactics and strategies, reported NYT.
Also Read: Who is Yahya Sinwar, the ‘pragmatic’ leader & mastermind of October 7 attacks
According to Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Adviser, the US has devoted considerable resources to assisting Israel in this manhunt. “We’ve had people in Israel sitting in the room with the Israelis working this problem set,” Sullivan stated, highlighting the deep level of cooperation.
Despite this collaboration, the intelligence-sharing arrangement has sometimes been described as “lopsided,” with the Americans often providing more information than they receive in return. Nevertheless, the mutual interest in capturing Sinwar and locating the dozens of hostages, including American citizens, has driven the two nations to work closely together.
What happens if the mission succeeds?
The potential capture or killing of Yahya Sinwar carries significant implications for the ongoing conflict. American officials believe that neutralising Sinwar would allow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to claim a major military victory, which could, in turn, lead to a more favourable outcome for Israel in the conflict.
However, there are also concerns about the impact Sinwar’s death might have on negotiations for the release of hostages. Some officials fear that his removal could make Hamas’s successors less willing to engage in any deal with Israel.
Despite the challenges, Israeli officials remain determined to find Sinwar. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who has been personally involved in the operations targeting Hamas leaders, keeps a diagram of the Hamas leadership on his wall, marking off each leader as they are killed. Sinwar, however, remains the most elusive and valuable target.
What next?
In late December, as Israeli military units excavated tunnels in Khan Younis, Gallant boldly claimed that Sinwar could “hear the bulldozers of the IDF above him” and would soon “meet the barrels of our guns.” Yet, when Israeli forces raided the Khan Younis bunker on January 31, they found only the remnants of his hurried departure.
His ability to evade capture has not only frustrated Israeli and American officials but has also kept him in a position of power within Hamas.
The search for Yahya Sinwar is far from over.
Also Read: Why Israel must redefine notion of victory or else it risks losing war
With inputs from agencies
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