Will Trump's tariffs result in China-India-Russia joining hands?

Will India China and Russia join hands as a result of Trump’s tariffs?

The US president seems to be picking fights on all fronts.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China soon, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is slated to come to India.

This comes in the backdrop of Trump imposing a 50 per cent tariff on India for its relationship with Russia.

There is also talk of reviving the Russia-India-China (RIC) grouping that was founded in the 1990s.

Let’s take a closer look

Modi in China

The three countries already seem to be making moves against America.

Modi will travel to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in late August.

This is his first trip to China since 2018.

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The summit is related to be held from August 31 to September 1.

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to undertake a trip to India ahead of Modi’s visit.

Wang, who is a member of powerful Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), will meet National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on 18 August.

Wang and Doval are set to discuss the border issue between the two countries.

China and India have slowly mended relations since the 2020 stand-off. The two countries share a 3,800-kilometre border in the Himalayas.

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Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in June visited China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s meeting of defence ministers.

The SCO is a 10-nation Eurasian security and political grouping whose members include China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran.

Rajnath met his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun on the sidelines of the summit – the highest-level dialogue between the countries in months.

Rajnath was also the first Indian defence minister to visit China since 2013. He shared a four-pronged approach with Dong for better ties. He also said both nations should seek a ‘permanent solution’ to the border dispute.

He also announced the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra – which had been suspended since COVID-19 pandemic and then the Galwan Valley clash.

India and China previously met at a high-level to work on the disengagement process at Demchok and Depsang Plains in October 2024.

That development came after intense negotiations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting President Xi Jinping meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan in October 2024.

Putin in India

Meanwhile, Putin is slated to visit India later this year.

His visit comes in the backdrop of Trump and other high-ranking US officials accusing India of funding Russia’s war in Ukraine by continuing to purchase crude oil and trade with Russia.

India has hit back at the US-led West and pointed out that both Washington and the European Union continue to trade with Russia. India has also defended its purchase of crude oil from Russia, pointing out that Russian oil has not been sanctioned and that India is not violating any international laws. New Delhi has also about to put its national interest above all else.

Interestingly, NSA Doval is currently in Moscow. The Indian NSA is will discuss Trump’s tariffs as well as lay the groundwork for Putin’s trip. External Affairs Minister S Jaishanka will also visit Russia later on this month.

The Russian president has is yet to visit India since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.  He has also limited his trips around the world Send the International Criminal Court in 2023 issued a warrant against him for “war crimes”.

While this affects his travel to states that are signatories to the Rome Statute, it would not interfere with him traveling to India.

Putin met Modi at the 22nd Annual Summit in July 2024 in Moscow and the 16th Brics Summit in Kazan in 2023.  The two men previously met in December 2021 at the 21st India–Russia Annual Summit. Modi previously called for peace in Ukraine and famously told Putin “this is not the era of war”.

New Delhi continues to view Russia as a “longstanding and time-tested partner”. The two countries signed the “Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in October 2000 during Putin’s visit.  In 2010, the two countries elevated ties from a strategic partnership to a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”.

Total bilateral trade between the two countries touched $65.7 billion in the 2023-2024 financial year. India exported goods worth $4.26 billion to Russia and imported items worth $61.44 billion.

This was an around 33 per cent increase from the 2022–23 financial year, where total trade was valued at $49.36 billion.

Mineral fuels, oils, and petroleum products particularly crude oil comprise the bulk (76 per cent) of India’s imports from Russia. Pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals, electrical machinery, mechanical appliances, iron and steel are India’s main imports.

Both countries have announced they want to increase trade to $100 billion by 2030.

The two countries also have vibrant defence ties including the supply of S-400, licensed production of T-90 tanks and Su-30 MKI, supply of MiG-29 and Kamov helicopters, INS Vikramaditya (formerly Admiral Gorshkov), production of Ak-203 rifles in India and BrahMos missiles.

RIC grouping to be revived?

It is also possible that the Russia, India and China (RIC) grouping could be revived.

The grouping was established at the behest of Russian politico Yevgeny Primakov.

It was viewed as a “a counterbalance to the Western alliance.”

India, Russia and China could be a powerful troika.

Together, they account for 19 per cent of the world’s landmass. They also comprise more than 33 per cent of the world’s GDP.

Russia’s foreign minister earlier this year mused about reviving the dormant group.

The last meeting of the RIC was held in 2020 before the stand-off between India and China.

What do experts say?

Experts say they see an opportunity especially when it comes to the RIC.

“Restarting the RIC mechanism now holds particular importance. All three nations are key advocates for a genuinely multipolar international order. As major powers facing unilateral pressure from the US, they share both the incentive and the imperative to strengthen solidarity and cooperation to bolster global economic stability,” Xie Chao, an associate professor, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, wrote in Global Times.

Xie said the revival of the RIC will come down to whether India and China can build sufficient trust to expand their relationship.

Timofei Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Discussion Club, added, “The trilateral dialogue between China, India and Russia does not constrain the foreign policy autonomy of its participants. Instead, it can make a significant contribution to the global balance and to the fulfillment of their own interests, while also creating additional confidence among other countries in Asia and Eurasia”.

Bordachev said reaching a shared understanding in the fast-changing international environment will be the key to the RIC.

“The most likely task for the RIC at the present stage is to jointly articulate what is equally important to all three countries - regardless of short-term political disagreements which are always present in international relations. It is hard to imagine who, besides these three states, could do this better right now”, Bordachev wrote.

A piece in SCMP said that the RIC being revived could benefit the Global South as a whole.

“With many nations watching the G7 and Brics from the sidelines, RIC offers a pragmatic, issue-specific alternative that emphasises dialogue over confrontation. Its resurrection would send a signal that Asia’s major powers are willing to engage even if they disagree amid a model of strategic realism over ideological alignment. Even in a limited form, it can foster regional stability and predictability amid global uncertainty”.

The piece noted that while Russia, China and India might never get on the same page for all issues, that is far from a necessity.

“The new realism that defines their interactions is sufficient for this moment in Asian geopolitics”, the piece concluded.

However, others remain cautious.

Indrani Bagchi, writing in Economic Times, noted, “India has spent the last decade moving closer to the West, both strategically and economically. That has not gone unnoticed in Beijing, Moscow or, for that matter, in all of Asia.”

She warned that China has the same position on India’s  ‘strategic autonomy’ as the US.

“It has been many years since China became convinced that India has ‘pivoted’ to the Western camp, and is determined to make it difficult for India,” Bagchi noted.

She called for India to get its own house in order.

With inputs from agencies