Will Cyclone Biparjoy delay the monsoon in India?

On Tuesday night, a deep depression that had developed in the Arabian Sea grew into a cyclonic storm that went by the name of Biparjoy (pronounced Biporjoy). Cyclone Biparjoy was located 900 kilometres west-southwest of Goa on Wednesday at roughly 2.30 am, 1020 km southwest of Mumbai, 1090 km south-southwest of Porbandar, and 1380 km south of Karachi.

Deep Depression intensified into Cyclonic Storm BIPARJOY over Eastcentral Arabian Sea at 1730hrs IST. To move nearly northwards and intesify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. For details kindly visit https://t.co/wRl94BS1bz. pic.twitter.com/Nmy23htz0d

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) June 6, 2023

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cyclone is “likely to move nearly northwards and intensify gradually into a severe cyclonic storm over the east-central Arabian Sea by Wednesday morning and further intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region during subsequent 24 hours.” The main issue at hand is whether or not Cyclone Biparjoy would affect the start of the monsoon. Let’s take a look. Monsoon delayed in Kerala The Met Department on Monday said that the cyclonic storm is anticipated to have a significant impact on the monsoon’s approach towards the Kerala coast, which has already been delayed in Kerala. While the private forecasting firm Skymet Weather suggested that it might occur on 8 or 9 June, that too with a “meek and mild entry.” A tentative arrival date for the monsoon in Kerala is yet to be confirmed. “These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats,” it said.

JUST IN: As per Skymet, the onset of Southwest #Monsoon2023 over the Indian mainland of #Kerala is expected to be delayed by a week. The onset is expected on June 7 with an error margin of +/-3 days. #Monsoon #MonsoonOnset

— Skymet (@SkymetWeather) May 16, 2023

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Times of India quoted Roxy Mathew Koll, a senior climate expert from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, as saying, “Biparjoy is much away from the Indian coast as compared to Nisarg or Tauktae. This Arabian Sea cyclone will not affect the west coast directly, except for some bursts of winds from a combination of cyclone gusts and background monsoon winds. But since it has formed over the Arabian Sea and is moving north-northwestward, it could drive the moisture away from India. This can hamper the onset and progression of the monsoon." The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on 1 June with a standard deviation of about seven days. The IMD had earlier predicted that the monsoon might arrive in the southern state by 4 June. Impact on other states According to PTI, while the monsoon arrival in Kerala got further delayed due to the formation of a low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea, it does not mean, according to scientists, that the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late. It also does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season. The IMD had recently stated that despite the developing El Niño conditions, India is anticipated to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Rainfall in the northwest of India is anticipated to be normal to below normal. Expected rainfall amounts for the east and northeast, central, and south peninsula range from 94 to 106% of the long-term average of 87 cm, according to News18.

Severe Cyclonic storm Biparjoy over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea at 0830 IST of 07th June, near lat 12.7N and lon 66.2E, about 880km WSW of Goa. Likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into VSCS during next 12 hrs. pic.twitter.com/6rsdoPWQPu

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) June 7, 2023

It will also have an effect on when the monsoon arrives in Mumbai, a metropolis entirely dependent on the water reservoirs that fill up after rain. “Generally, whenever there is a cyclone, it affects the onset of the monsoon. This may cause a delay of about one or two days. As the cyclone moves further, it is likely to go north and at that time, we will be able to see the impact that it can have on our coast,” Sunil Kamble, the head of Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) Mumbai told PTI. However, Skymet president GP Sharma has a different perspective. He told CNBC-TV18, “A cyclone has a favourable effect on the start of the monsoon if it is located along our southern and western coastal line. When Nisarg made landfall in Maharashtra in 2020 and struck our western coastal line, we witnessed this happening. With it, the monsoon season began. Cyclone Biparjoy, on the other hand, is located in the Arabian Sea far from the shore, thus this is not the case.” [caption id=“attachment_12703812” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A satellite image taken between 03:00 pm to 03:26 pm IST shows the location of Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea, on Tuesday. PTI[/caption] “Biparjoy is more of a spoilsport as it has already started interfering with the onset of monsoon. Biparjoy is positioned in the Arabian Sea, far from our coastal line. Such cyclone suppresses monsoon,” Sharma said, adding, “It weakens the current and delays the favourable conditions for monsoon. So Biparjoy is delaying the onset of monsoon.” Sharma reaffirmed Skymet’s earlier prediction that the start of the monsoon is likely to occur by 10 June. He revised, “Now that we have updated our forecast, we anticipate it to occur on 9 June.” Combo of Cyclone Biparjoy and El Nino Biparjoy is not the only element in this situation that is causing trouble, Sharma told the broadcast channel. Cyclone Biparjoy and El Niño have a negative impact on this year’s monsoon. El Nino was anticipated to affect August’s rainfall and its intensity in the past. The circumstance has altered, though. “El Niño’s impact has started and it’s evolving. For El Niño to make an impact, the ocean and atmosphere should be in sync. Earlier the ocean was warming, making the condition favourable for El Niño but the atmosphere was reluctant. Now, the atmosphere has also started aligning, resulting in faster-than-expected development in El Niño impact. El Niño is evolving faster and earlier than expected. And this is going to impact the monsoon across the nation,” Sharma told CNBC-TV18. IMD holds a distinct perspective. Mumbai head Sunil Kamble told the outlet, “As far as EL Niño is concerned, its impact will be there in July-August only.” Wind warning The east-central Arabian Sea and nearby parts of the west-central and southeast Arabian Sea are now experiencing gale winds of 70 to 80 kilometres per hour with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour, according to Hindustan Times. These winds are expected to increase to 105 to 115 kilometres per hour with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour starting on 7 June evening. Along and off the beaches of Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra, squally winds with gusts up to 60 kilometres per hour are expected on 8 June. Along these coastal areas, the wind speed is anticipated to remain unchanged for the next four days. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.