Why US election results are a warning signal for Donald Trump

The Democrats swept the big elections in the United States on Tuesday (November 4).

From Zohran Mamdani being elected the new Mayor of New York to Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill as governors of Virginia and New Jersey respectively, voters unanimously seemed to give US President Donald Trump’s second term a thumbs-down.

Trump, however, remained defiant on social media, writing, “Trump wasn’t on the ballot, and shutdown, were the two reasons that Republicans lost the elections tonight.”

Let’s take a closer look at why US election results give Trump little to cheer tonight.

Backlash to Trump’s second term

No matter what Trump claims publicly, it is a political truism that the first major elections held after a president takes office are a referendum on his job performance. Then-US President Barack Obama, after the 2010 midterm elections, admitted that his party had received a shellacking after his historic 2008 victory.

Little less than a year since Trump has taken office, a self-avowed socialist Democrat is mayor of New York and two moderates have been elected in Virginia and New Jersey. Mamdani’s big win in New York came despite, or perhaps partly because of, Trump’s threats to the city.

More from Explainers

Trump says he's making America great, voters don't agree: His approval rating at lowest Trump lists 2 reasons why Republicans lost elections in New York, Virginia and New Jersey

The US president had repeatedly threatened to withhold funding from New York, which is illegal under federal law, if it elected Mamdani.

“Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday. He also slammed Mamdani as a ‘communist’.

“If Communist Candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the Election for Mayor of New York City, it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required, to my beloved first home,” Trump wrote. “I don’t want to send, as President, good money after bad.”
Trump, despite his claims that he wasn’t on the ballot, also tried to get involved in the race. He and his billionaire backers prevailed on incumbent New York Mayor Eric Adams to drop out, tried to get independent Curtis Silva to do so as well and eventually endorsed Andrew Cuomo.

Editor’s Picks

1

Zohran Mamdani vs Donald Trump: How will New York City be governed now? 2

Zohran Mamdani’s NYC win and the India connection: A Nehru quote, Bollywood song

“It’s not just a message about Democrats; it’s a message about our entire country. I think Americans are appalled by what they are seeing coming out of this administration,” New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told CNN.

The development comes as Trump’s disapproval rating hit its highest level ever with Americans. A new CNN/SSRS poll showed that 63 per cent of Americans currently view Trump negatively.

Democratic energy for 2026

The development also gives a preview of what Democratic energy could look like ahead of next year’s midterm elections. After Trump won in 2016, the Democrats gained 40 seats in the US House of Representatives and ended the unified control of government by the Republicans. As of now, history seems poised to repeat itself in 2026.

Republicans have attempted to downplay the defeats. “These are off-year elections in blue states and I was expecting Democrats to win,” conservative commentator Scott Jennings said on CNN.

But even those within the White House are admitting that things look bleak.

“It’s not doomsday but not a good tea leaf. Not a great night if you’re in the president’s party. But it’s also an off-year,” a White House ally told Politico. “Part of this is the struggle that has always been: how do you transfer his voters into other elections? There are people who only turn out when he’s on the ballot.”

“People aren’t feeling the promises kept,” the person added. “You won on lowering costs, putting more money back into people’s pockets. And people don’t feel that right now.”

They also tried to insulate Trump from the defeat in all states, none of which he has ever won during his 2016, 2020 and 2024 bids, particularly in New Jersey.

“To be clear, NJ is not a referendum on Trump,” Mike Hahn, a GOP strategist based in New Jersey and an ex-Trump staffer, said. “It is a reflection on Jack Ciattarelli, who has now lost three times and was always vulnerable.”

Though Trump has falsely claimed that prices of everything from groceries to fuel are going down, voters clearly disagreed. Others seem to be recognising the reality as well.

“We got our asses handed to us,” Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump ally who is running for governor of Ohio, said in a video posted on X. “Our side needs to focus on affordability.”

Bellwether Virginia goes blue

Virginia, which has long been considered a bellwether state in the Union, went massively blue.

Spanberger, a former CIA agent, ran nearly double digits ahead of the previous Democratic candidates – Kamala Harris in 2024 and Terry McAuliffe in 2021. Spanberger in her victory speech slammed the “chaos coming out of Washington” and promised not to “stand by silently while you attack Virginia’s workers.”

But the blue wave in Virginia went deep. Democrats took all these statewide races and won 13 seats in the state Assembly. This will help Democrats pass a constitutional amendment to redraw state maps, which will aid their quest to take back the House in 2026.

In the New Jersey governor’s race, Sherrill handily beat the Trump-endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Democrats created history in the state – this is the first time in decades a party has held the governor’s office for two straight terms.

Democrats also flipped back several New Jersey counties that Trump won in 2024. In Pennsylvania, which is sure to see a legal battle over redrawing voter maps ahead of next year’s election, Democrats retained all their seats on the state Supreme Court. The justices on the state’s highest court serve ten-year terms.

Gavin Newsom gets boost ahead of 2028

California Governor Gavin Newsom, who could potentially be a Democratic front-runner for the 2028 presidential election, won big on Tuesday. Newsom’s Proposition 50, which proposes redrawing California’s maps to favour Democrats ahead of the midterms, won big with voters.

Newsom, despite some in the party urging otherwise, threw down the gauntlet in California after years of the Republicans redrawing maps to benefit themselves – which in some instances have been struck down by courts as unconstitutional.

The move will help Democrats win at least five more seats in the House of Representatives, which the Republicans narrowly hold, next year – which they badly need to render Trump a lame-duck president. The development helps burnish the profile of Newsom, who is already well known as the governor of the biggest state in America, ahead of the 2028 election.

Newsom said the results show that the Democratic Party is “on its toes, no longer on its heels.” He added that this was an “extraordinary moment” for the nation. For Trump and the Republican Party, this election could be a prelude to hard times ahead.

With inputs from agencies