Belarus has greeted Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin with open arms following his rebellion against Vladimir Putin. This, as NATO warned that it is ready to defend its partners from ‘Moscow or Minsk’. But why has Prigozhin’s move to Belarus – put together by close Putin ally President Alexander Lukashenko in exchange for halting his uprising – left NATO worried? Let’s take a closer look: What is NATO saying? NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said it was still too early to draw conclusions from the move to Belarus of Prigozhin and, likely, some of his forces, but he vowed that the alliance was ready to defend its members. “What is absolutely clear is that we have sent a clear message to Moscow and to Minsk that NATO is there to protect every ally and every inch of NATO territory,” Stoltenberg, speaking in The Hague, said. The Guardian quoted Stoltenberg as saying that NATO would on 11 July at a meeting of all 31 members approve firming up its defences – especially for states bordering Belarus. “We have already increased our military presence in the eastern part of the alliance and we will make further decisions to further strengthen our collective defence with more high-readiness forces and more capabilities at the upcoming summit,” Stoltenberg added. ‘Closely monitoring situation’ According to Fox News, the Wagner Group boss’ presence in Belarus has NATO countries on alert.
“We are closely monitoring the situation and are fully prepared to react should the situation require,” a Lithuanian official told Fox News Digital.
The Guardian quoted Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nauseda as saying, “If Wagner deploys its serial killers in Belarus, all neighbouring countries face even greater danger of instability.” RFERL earlier quoted Nauseda as saying, “If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner Group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders.” Polish president Andrzej Duda added, “This is really serious and very concerning, and we have to make very strong decisions. It requires a very, very tough answer of NATO.” [caption id=“attachment_12696792” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Representational image. Reuters[/caption] Some are even speculating that Prigozhin could open up a second front against Ukraine. “It is a strategic move to beef up Russian force posture and open a second front for Western Ukraine war," author and former DIA intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler told Fox News Digital. “Poland and Lithuania almost certainly understand what has just taken place, in terms of Putin’s moving the chess pieces, and will likely be pressuring NATO for assistance in increasing their security measures and augmenting the alliance’s strategic reserves in the region,” Koffler added. Koffler further told Fox News Digital that ‘Prigozhin cannot be trusted any more than Putin’. “Putin is expanding the battlefield to stretch Ukrainian resources thin amidst Kiev’s counter-offensive,” she added. “Putin also aims to hold at risk NATO’s eastern flank - it is why he recently gifted tactical nuclear weapons to Lukashenko.”
But NATO sources told Vice News that Putin is unlikely to let Prigozhin off the hook.
“There’s too many missing pieces for us to really assess things, it feels like the situation froze in time and nobody is certain what to do,” said a senior NATO official. “That appears to be Putin’s recent weakness, not being engaged at key moments, preferring to let others fight things out. Well that backfired and now his regime looks even weaker than it did over Ukraine.” “What happens to [Prigozhin] and Utkin will tell us a lot,” the official added. “I can’t imagine a timeline where Putin allows these two to walk away but I also can’t imagine a timeline where this happened in the first place.” Putin looks to firm up authority As the fallout unfolded from Prigozhin’s brief mutiny – widely seen as the biggest threat to Kremlin authority in decades – Putin sought to shore up his authority by thanking regular troops for averting a civil war. But as Moscow announced preparations to disarm Wagner fighters, Putin’s arch foe, jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, launched a stinging attack on the president in his first comments since the aborted mutiny by the paramilitaries. [caption id=“attachment_12798632” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Russian president Vladimir Putin is looking to firm up his authority in the aftermath of the aborted rebellion. Reuters.[/caption] “There is no bigger threat to Russia than Putin’s regime,” Navalny said on social media. “Putin’s regime is so dangerous to the country that even its inevitable demise will create the threat of civil war,” he wrote.
Putin’s supporters, however, insisted that his rule was not weakened by the revolt.
Asked whether Putin’s power was diminished by the sight of Wagner’s rebel mercenaries seizing a military HQ, advancing on Moscow and shooting down military aircraft along the way, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused political commentators of exaggerating, adding that: “We don’t agree.” Putin himself attempted to portray the dramatic events at the weekend as a victory for the Russian army. “You de facto stopped civil war,” Putin told troops from the defence ministry, National Guard, FSB security service and interior ministry gathered in a Kremlin courtyard to hold a minute’s silence for airmen slain by Wagner. Private army Prigozhin, a former Kremlin ally and catering contractor who built Russia’s most powerful private army, has boasted – with some support from news footage – that his men were cheered by civilians during his short-lived revolt. But Putin insisted that Wagner’s ordinary fighters had seen that “the army and the people were not with them.” In a separate meeting with defence officials, Putin confirmed that Wagner was wholly funded by the Russian federal budget, despite operating as an independent company, adding that in the past year alone since the assault on Ukraine, Moscow had paid the group 86.262 billion rubles (around $1 billion) in salaries. The feud between Wagner and the army had escalated for months, with Prigozhin making increasingly scathing statements against the generals’ handling of the offensive in Ukraine, blaming them for thousands of Russian losses. Russian officials have been trying to put the crisis behind them for three days, with the FSB dropping charges against rank-and-file Wagner troops and the military preparing to disarm the group. But, questions remain over how the Kremlin allowed the violence of its operation in Ukraine to spill back into Russia. Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko is seeking credit for stepping in to mediate Wagner’s U-turn on the road to Moscow, and on Tuesday he criticised Russia’s handling of the issue. ‘We could waste him’ Talking to his own military officials, Lukashenko said that Prigozhin was arriving in Belarus on Tuesday, and revealed that he had urged Putin not to kill the rogue mercenary. “I said to Putin: we could waste him, no problem. If not on the first try, then on the second. I told him: don’t do this,” Lukashenko said, according to state media. [caption id=“attachment_12795692” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus. AP[/caption] In his address, Putin also stressed that the revolt had not forced Russia to withdraw any of its units from Ukraine, where fighting continued as Kyiv’s brigades pursued their counteroffensive in their nation’s east and south. Ukrainian forces are continuing to battle Russian troops in the Donetsk region even as the security crisis plays out in Moscow In an interview with CNN, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba played down the effect of Russia’s internal strife on the conflict. “Unfortunately, Prigozhin gave up too quickly. So there was no time for this demoralising effect to penetrate Russian trenches,” he said. On Tuesday, a Russian rocket struck a bustling restaurant in the middle of Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine, killing at least four people including a teenager, regional officials said. The blast at the Ria Pizza restaurant also wounded at least 47 at the eatery, popular with both soldiers and journalists in the town of 150,000 people, one of the largest still under Ukraine control in the east. “There was loads of blood, everyone was wounded,” said Yevgen, who had been dining at the restaurant with two friends. “I couldn’t understand anything, everything went dark.” “It is a war crime… it’s also a gross violation of international human rights law,” said Matilda Bogner, head of the mission. Meanwhile, the United States announced a new $500 million tranche of arms to bolster Ukraine’s mounting counteroffensive, including armoured vehicles, precision munitions and mine-clearing equipment. With inputs from agencies Read all the
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