Why Putin-Zelenskyy meet won’t happen soon and peace is a distant dream

Many years ago, John Lennon sang the famous song Give peace a chance. The question that everyone is asking now is — will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy give it a chance after it was announced on Monday (August 19) that the Ukrainian leader was willing to meet his Russian counterpart as a means to end this war, which has been on since February 2022.

While Trump, his administration and European leaders hailed the Oval Office meeting on Monday, there were few positive outcomes to derive from it, apart from the fact that Zelenskyy had agreed to meet with Putin. Also, the US has indicated some sort of security guarantees to Ukraine — Trump has now rejected the idea of putting American troops on Ukrainian soil but added that it may provide air support as part of a peace deal with Russia.

But many believe that peace between Russia and Ukraine is still a distant dream as both sides remain far apart on what terms they would accept to end the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

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A ceasefire vs a peace deal

Perhaps, one of the biggest hurdles to peace between Russia and Ukraine is Kyiv’s demand of a ceasefire while holding talks. Putin, however, has dismissed this demand, as his forces continue to inch forward in Ukraine.

Earlier it seemed that even Trump wanted a ceasefire but ditched that call after his Alaska summit with Putin. The US president dropped that demand and said it was best to focus on a comprehensive peace deal — an approach that Putin has pushed for. In fact, at Monday’s meeting with Zelenskyy and European leaders, Trump said that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was “unnecessary.”

However, Europe has insisted that a ceasefire be agreed upon. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday, “I can’t imagine that the next meeting would take place without a ceasefire. So let’s work on that, and let’s try to put pressure on Russia because the credibility of these efforts, these efforts we are undertaking today are depending on at least a ceasefire from the beginning of the serious negotiations from next step on.”

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International law experts also note that while many believe that ceasefire and peace deal are thought to be the same thing, there is a big difference between the two in the eyes of international law.

During a ceasefire, warring parties agree to stop fighting with each side keeping hold of the territory under its military control. But the understanding is that the pause is temporary – usually to provide a window to negotiate, deliver humanitarian help or evacuate civilians.

However, what Putin wants and Trump, seems to be supporting, is a permanent peace agreement. According to international law, a peace agreement is formal and a long-term treaty, which dictates the future relationship between two countries.

As Jeremy Pizzi, an international lawyer and a legal adviser of Global Rights Compliance, a human rights foundation, told CNN, “There is a uniquely core principle to international law that is inscribed front and centre in the UN Charter: Use of force is emphatically prohibited. So what that also (means) is that any treaty that you procure by use of force is effectively illegal and is inherently void.”

Also, while details haven’t been released, Putin appears to be insistent on his demand of acquiring control of the entire eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known as the Donbas. However, the Ukrainian constitution doesn’t permit Zelenskyy from handing over territory. As per law, any change to the country’s borders must be approved by a referendum.

A Putin-Zelenskyy meet

One of the biggest outcomes of the Oval Office meeting was the fact that Zelenskyy would meet with Vladimir Putin with the White House stating that planning had already begun for this. As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later told the media that the US National Security Council is working on a framework for the same.

This was followed up by Putin suggesting to hold a possible meeting with Zelenskyy in Moscow, according to two sources. “Putin mentioned Moscow”, one of the sources told AFP, adding that Zelenskyy had said “no” in response.

And now, Russian media is playing down the potential meet between the two with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggesting that it would require intense preparation.

Moreover, there are doubts if Putin would actually meet Zelenskyy, a leader he has deemed as illegitimate. As the Wall Street Journal noted in one report, negotiating directly with Zelenskyy runs counter to the narrative the Russian leader has carefully constructed and sold to Russians in an effort to justify his 2022 invasion of Ukraine: that the war is part of a broader conflict with the West in which Zelenskyy and his country are mere pawns.

Putin has also questioned Zelenskyy’s legitimacy after he extended his presidential term beyond five years, citing the challenges in holding an election during a war. Putin has questioned his authority to sign any peace agreement.

Lavrov even referred to the Ukrainian leader as “this character” and “this man” when speaking on the chances of a bilateral between the two.

Even Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, was quoted as telling Wall Street Journal, “In Putin’s eyes, Zelenskyy is not a player. The fact Ukrainians are fighting at all is because of Western support.”

Orysia Lutsevich, the director of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme, also shares similar views. In a CNN report, she is quoted as saying that Putin meeting Zelenskyy would be a huge reversal in tone that would be tough to explain to the Russian people. “(Putin) so much brainwashed Russians on state television that Zelenskyy’s a Nazi, that (Ukraine’s) a puppet state of the West … that Zelenskyy’s illegitimate, why is he suddenly talking to him?”

Security guarantees to Ukraine

One other obstacle that lies on the path to peace is the kind of security guarantees to be given to Ukraine. Zelenskyy has maintained that his nation needs assurances that it can deter any future attacks by the Kremlin’s forces.

While Europe has backed this demand, stating that Nato’s Article 5-like protection could be provided to Kyiv, the US has remains vague on it. Europe has also suggested setting up a force that could backstop any peace agreement in Ukraine. A coalition of 30 countries, including European nations, Japan and Australia, have even signed up to support the initiative.

However, Putin has remained adamant that Ukraine cannot and should never be allowed to join Nato, a demand that Trump has voiced, writing on social media that for Ukraine, there is “no getting back” Crimea and “no going into Nato.” “Some things never change!!!” Trump said.

The Kremlin has also ruled out the presence of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine — especially from Nato countries. It said a peace agreement would require a ban on military activity of third states on the territory of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the war grinds on with the death toll rising and the destruction continuing unabated.

With inputs from agencies