Trade, defence deals and more... Why all eyes are on Putin’s visit to India

For the first time since the Ukraine war began in 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be making his way to India for a two-day visit today (December 4). In some ways, the trip is routine — India and Russia are age-old allies, dating back to the time of India’s Independence. However, the visit assumes greater significance owing to its timing — Moscow is in the midst of a war owing to which New Delhi is under growing pressure from the West, namely the United States, to downgrade its ties with the Vladimir Putin-led nation.

Ahead of his arrival in the Indian capital, we explain what’s on the table when Putin will meet India’s Narendra Modi. Will talks revolve just around trade? What about new defence deals?

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Let’s take a look.

Trade, trade and more trade

Ahead of Putin’s visit to India — his first since 2021, a couple of months before the Russian army invaded Ukraine — New Delhi and Moscow have formally framed the visit around trade.

As Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that some countries are trying to create “obstacles” in India-Russia trade but the two sides are focused on overcoming the challenge and expand bilateral trade to $100 billion in the next five years.

“There are some countries that would try and put obstacles on the way of development of our trade. So let’s stick to our own interests and we have to make sure that India is sharing this approach,” said Peskov, speaking to Sputnik News.

In fact, Russia has even pitched for creating an “architecture” to insulate its trade ties with India from pressure by third countries. The Kremlin has also indicated building a mechanism for settling trade in national currencies in order to avoid the dollar system.

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Ahead of his travel to India, speaking at the VTB Investment Forum, Putin also stated that expanding Indian imports will be a focus of his talks with Prime Minister Modi. “I and Prime Minister Modi will discuss Indian imports during the upcoming visit,” said the Russian strongman.

Moreover, when Putin visits India, he will attend the India-Russia Business Forum, hosted by New Delhi, to boost trade and investment. According to Indian officials, the forum will focus on expanding the presence of Indian engineering products in the Russian market; increasing Russia’s purchase of Indian food products including marine products; exploring the growth potential for mutual provision of digital services; and increasing the volume of Russian purchases of Indian pharmaceutical products.

According to an Economic Times report, it will also focus on expanding the presence of Indian suppliers in the Russian market, intensifying industrial cooperation, implementing joint projects, increasing cooperation in high technologies and attracting human resources from India.

When it comes to trade, no discussion between India and Russia will be complete without talks on crude oil. India has continued to buy Russian crude, despite US President Donald Trump imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports, raising the total duties to 50 per cent, in retaliation.

And Russia’s Putin will look to ensure that New Delhi continues its purchases of oil. In fact, according to a government source, Putin’s delegation includes the heads of sanctioned oil firms Rosneft and GazpromNeft, indicating that crude oil will be a topic of discussion.

The source also added that India is likely to pitch for the restoration of a stake of 20 per cent for state gas explorer ONGC Videsh Ltd in the Sakhalin-1 project in Russia’s far east.

S-400s, Su-57 fighter jets… Defence deals on the cards

India will also hope to seal defence deals with Russia during Putin’s visit to the Capital. On the cards are numerous defence purchases such as the S-400 air defence systems. “S-400 is on the agenda. We will have certain members of the delegation that can discuss in detail. The only thing I will say is that our military industry is working pretty well. We have managed to enlarge the volumes of production,” Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Russian President said at an online interaction with the Indian press organised by the Sputnik News Agency.

It is also being reported that in addition to procuring five more regiments of the S-400 platform, New Delhi is also looking to purchase Russia’s more advanced version of this defence system — the S-500 Prometheus. This comes after India saw the lethality of the weapon during Operation Sindoor when it not only struck down Pakistan drones and aircraft, but also scored its longest ever hit.

India and Russia may also hold talks regarding the possibility of buying at least two squadrons of the Su-57 fighter jets. As Peskov said earlier, “Su- 57 is the best plane in the world. Su-57 will be on the agenda.”

Moreover, ahead of Putin’s visit, the Russian Duma ratified the key defence pact, the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistic Support (RELOS), with officials noting that both Putin and Modi will discuss this further during their talks.

An India Today report has also said that India and Russia are also likely to explore new collaboration on a range of defence projects during the summit. This would include the 48N6 missile variant, which is used in the S-400 defence system, being assembled in India, led by Bharat Dynamics Limited.

Notably, Russia continues to be India’s biggest defence supplier — according to data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India’s defence imports in 2024 from Russia stood at 77 per cent.

Civil nuclear cooperation

Another important issue that will be on the agenda when Putin comes to India will be civil nuclear energy. Peskov has said that there is a possibility that India and Russia will sign an agreement on nuclear energy.

“There will be an offer for small reactor. Russia possess important tech small and flexible reactor. Russia has real experience in producing small reactors. We’re exchanging mutual investments, joint investments and it makes this kind of cooperation even more valuable for our countries, in terms for securing future of this country. We were deeply involved in creating a sector of peaceful nuclear energy in India, in Kudankulam, and so we were hoping for the continuation of this project,” Peskov said.

India has shown keenness in building such reactors, given that they are smaller in size (roughly 300MW capacity) which entails lower costs. Last year, New Delhi sought cooperation in this field with a number of countries, including France.

Jobs and people-to-people ties

Another watchpoint during Putin’s visit to India will be the two countries signing a labour mobility agreement. It is expected that both the countries will sign a deal that establishes a framework for the legal migration of skilled Indian workers to support Russia in sectors experiencing labour shortages, such as IT services.

Officials in Ministry of External Affairs has said that the signing of this pact is the “single most important development”.

By the end of the year, over 70,000 Indian nationals are expected to be officially employed across Russia under the quotas managed by the Russian Ministry of Labour. Moscow-based Indian Business Alliance president Sammy Manoj Kotwani was quoted as telling PTI, “India has one of the world’s most dynamic and skilled workforce and Russia is undergoing a major industrial transformation. This agreement creates a win-win opportunity for both sides — providing skilled manpower for Russia’s economy while ensuring secure and dignified employment for Indian professionals.”

There’s also likely to be a discussion on Indians being recruited into the Russian army. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, around 50 Indians are still part of the Russian military and are expected to be discharged soon.

Last year too, during his visit to Russia, PM Modi raised this issue with Putin, urging the president to ensure that the recruitment of Indian citizens be stopped.

The Trump factor and Russia-Ukraine war

It won’t be a surprise that when Putin meets Modi in Delhi, the two will discuss US President Donald Trump and the sanctions that he has imposed on India.

While New Delhi was initially optimistic of Trump’s second term in the White House, the US president has been ramping up pressure on India to reduce its purchase of Russian crude oil. He imposed a 25 per cent tariff on New Delhi for its purchase of Russian crude, following it up with secondary sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft companies, which account for over half of the country’s crude exports.

Experts also note that PM Modi is likely to raise the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war, with the Indian leader repeatedly voicing his support for ending the conflict. The timing of this is interesting as Putin just concluded talks with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner from the US on a peace deal to end the war.

All in all, it appears that Putin’s visit to India is high-stakes and much is expected to come out of this visit. In fact, as Dmitry Peskov noted that Putin’s forthcoming visit to India will yield “significant outcomes” across strategic, defence, energy and trade domains.

We shall wait and watch to see what exactly comes out of it though.

With inputs from agencies