Why Joe Biden’s decision to drop out is not necessarily good news for Donald Trump

To call this 2024 US presidential election a chaotic mess would be an understatement. From Donald Trump being nearly assassinated to Joe Biden dropping out of the race, a lot has happened — all within just eight days.

Holed up at his Delaware house after a COVID-19 diagnosis , the 81-year-old Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he was ending his presidential re-election campaign , saying his decision was being made keeping the “best interest of my party and the country”.

The decision, being termed by many as selfless, upends the election cycle completely. It sets the stage for a completely different type of election in November. As The Guardian notes, it will now be the Republicans having to deal with an ageing candidate.

Joe drops out, endorses Kamala Harris

On Saturday after weeks of pressure mounting, Joe Biden did what very few politicians would think to do: He put his country over his career.

Realising the Democratic Party had lost faith in his ability to beat Donald Trump — with donors and leaders — the 81-year-old commander-in-chief took the agonising decision on Sunday after a weekend of consultations with his closest aides and family, that he was stepping aside.

On X, the veteran politician wrote: “My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as president for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my vice president. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.”

While Biden’s decision was praised by many as the right one, others called it disappointing. As Jamie Yu, 27, a nurse in Phoenix told NBC News, “It could be an opportunity for great change or terrible change.”

Another voter, Matthew Henderson of Indiana told the BBC that while he was sad to see Biden drop out, he thinks it gives Democrats a better shot in November’s election.

Trump reacts

Shortly after Biden’s decision went public at 1.45 pm (local time), the Republican nominee Donald Trump hit out at the US president, launching an attack on him as well as his legacy.

Taking to his social media site, Truth Social, he wrote: “Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for president, and is certainly not fit to serve – and never was!”

“And now look what he’s done to our country, with millions of people coming across our border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly.”

He also told CBS News that nothing changes for him if he faces Kamala Harris on the ballot in November. “I think she is no better than him,” Trump said. “She could be far less competent, which is hard to believe.”

He insisted that Harris is still tied to the Biden administration policies, which he believes are unpopular with Americans. “The policies whether it’s him or her wouldn’t be any different,” Trump said. “She was in charge of the border. She was the border czar, she was the worst ever. The worst ever. We had the worst border ever so that wouldn’t matter.”

He was also quoted as telling CNN that he thought Vice President Kamala Harris would be easier to defeat than Biden.

Trump’s choice of vice president, JD Vance, also echoed similar sentiments. “Kamala Harris has been right there with him every step of the way. She owns all of these failures, and she lied for nearly four years about Biden’s mental capacity – saddling the nation with a president who can’t do the job,” he said.

“President Trump and I are ready to save America, whoever’s at the top of the Democrat ticket. Bring it on.”

Future of Trump’s campaign

Biden’s decision to drop out of the race doesn’t affect only the Democrats but Donald Trump too. Some political pundits believe that this signals a guaranteed win for the Republicans in the November election.

Helen Andrews, a senior editor at The American Conservative, was quoted telling Politico: “It doesn’t matter whom the Democrats pick. They can’t stop what’s coming. Donald Trump will win in November, because voters remember what life was like during his term and it beats the past three years on every metric, from cheaper groceries to fewer wars. The Democrats thought they could overcome that straightforward pitch by harping on Trump as a threat to democracy. But how can anyone run with that line after the Democrats have thrown out the results of their own primary under pressure from donors and other privileged insiders? By caving to their demands, Biden has fatally undermined the central theme of his whole campaign so far — preserving democracy.”

Josh Hammer, senior editor-at-large of Newsweek, was of a similar opinion. He said, “No reasonably independent-minded voter can possibly look at this s**tshow of a situation and conclude that the Democratic Party is, at this moment, anything but a hypocritical laughingstock. Nothing is a given, we are still a long ways out from November, and it is impossible to know what kind of “October surprise” Democrats have up their sleeves, but Donald Trump and JD Vance remain in good shape to be sworn in as POTUS and VPOTUS come January 2025.”

But not everyone sees it this way. There are many within the Democratic Party and close observers of US politics who believe that this could be a problem for Trump himself.

Why? Until now, Donald Trump and his supporters were playing up the concerns surrounding Biden’s age and his mental ability to run for office. As AFP reports, he was frequently a target of Republican mockery and scorn at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump’s new running mate JD Vance called him “Fake Scranton Joe.”

Last week’s Republican National Convention all but targeted Biden. It focused on their candidate’s strength and power which was reinforced with messages from world-renowned wrestler Hulk Hogan and Ultimate Fighting Championship chief Dana White.

But now, this script turns on its head. The Democratic nominee is going to be someone much younger than Trump and that strategy of strong vs frail against Vice-President Kamala Harris or one of the more youthful Democratic governors who are mentioned as possible Biden successors just won’t pack the same punch.

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center think tank, told AFP, “Biden withdrawing is bad news for Trump.”

“Biden has the lowest job approval of any first-term president at this stage of his presidency in polling history and is also irretrievably burdened by his age. It’s much better for Trump to run against him than any conceivable opponent.”

Some even note that a new candidate will infuse a vigour into the Democratic Party that may take them far. Rodell Mollineau, a Democratic strategist and long-time congressional aide, told Reuters that Harris would be able to mount “a more energetic campaign with excitement from younger voters and people of colour”.

And Michael Starr Hopkins, CEO of Northern Starr Strategies, which is a political communications firm, agrees. He told Politico: Kamala Harris is ready to energise our base. She has the prosecutor’s grit and the charisma to go head-to-head with Trump. Young people, women and communities of colour will see themselves in her fight. Don’t buy the tough talk from Trump’s camp. They know they’re in for a real battle. This is an entirely new race with an entirely new tone.”

Many others note it gives the Democrats a fresh start in the race, albeit late. They will be able to change their messaging, and appeal to younger voters. As one notes with Biden stepping away, it lets Democrats deflect the age debate back on Trump and his stammering speeches.

The Guardian further reports that Biden’s decision to step aside also underlines the Democrats’ narrative of ‘for country’. As The Guardian noted in one of its pieces, “It was a selfless decision that put the country’s interests before his own – an act of grace that many see as vividly contrasting with the narcissism of his opponent Donald Trump.”

It may sway undecided voters towards the blue side, with many citing it as an “act of patriotism”.

It is left to be seen what comes next. At this point, nothing is known. However, it does spare America the rematch that almost nobody wanted.

With inputs from agencies