Assassination bid makes Trump 2.0 all but certain

How much is the gap between damage and disaster? Believe it or not, it is a few centimetres! At least it turned out to be so for Donald Trump. Preferring to address public rallies without teleprompters he tends to look straight ahead at his audience. However, on the fateful Saturday, July 13, in Pennsylvania, he fortuitously turned his head a few centimetres in the nick of time to dodge a bullet that merely grazed past his ear.

A huge tragedy with horrendous implications for the American polity and society, was averted, by a few centimetres. As Trump was whisked away by the Secret Service, blood was visible on his face. He was dishevelled but unfazed and defiant, repeatedly pumping his fist in the air and yelling ‘fight, fight’. That image is likely to become the defining moment of his campaign and a signature poster in the run-up to the polling date.

More from Opinion

From Florida with folly: How Munir’s nuclear threat to India is both reckless and unprecedented Apache induction and Aatmanirbhar Bharat: Striking the right balance in defence modernisation

Not everyone was so lucky. One attendee at the event lost his life and two others were seriously wounded. The assailant, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was shot dead by police snipers. His motive remains unclear. He turned out to be a registered Republican which somewhat tempered the raw emotions of Trump supporters, some of whom ‘smell’ a Democratic conspiracy. The extent of backlash that may have ensued had the gunman been affiliated to any other party, is anybody’s guess!

President Biden promptly condemned the incident calling for national unity and a civilised discourse. Later in the evening he spoke to Trump on phone to wish him a speedy recovery and to assure that the matter would be investigated thoroughly. This was perhaps the first time that they had spoken to each other since Trump demitted office on 20th June 2021.

Impact Shorts

View All

Israel and Palestine: Two-state solution looks good only on paper

Trump’s tech hiring ban: India’s chance to redefine global innovation

Political violence is not new to the US. The country has lost four sitting presidents and numerous other prominent personalities to the assassin’s bullet including luminaries like Abraham Lincoln, John F Kennedy and Martin Luther King. This attempt on Trump’s life came 43 years after the one on President Ronald Reagan who too had a close shave but suffered grievous injuries.

The gun culture has deeply permeated into American society, underwritten by the Second Amendment to the American Constitution which confers the right to bear arms. According to a Pew survey, 42 per cent of American households possess a weapon. Efforts by the Democratic party to curb gun-holding have always been thwarted by the Republicans, notwithstanding regular mass shootings every year that kill thousands, including children.

There are growing indications of a glaring security lapse. Former presidents are protected by the Secret Service which did spring into action moments after the attack. Yet, the fact remains that the gunman managed to perch himself on the rooftop of a warehouse, less than 500 feet from Trump with an assault rifle and an unobstructed view of him. According to emerging reports, some attendees even alerted the law enforcement agents to the presence of the assailant moments before he opened fire. The investigation which is underway would be instructive for security agencies the world over.

Reacting to the July 13 incident, Patti Davis, President Reagan’s daughter, wrote: “America is far more angry and far more violent now than it was in 1981”. She is spot on.

There is a little doubt that the political atmosphere in the US is highly surcharged. Bloodshed was barely averted on January 6, 2021, when President Trump incited his followers to march on Capitol Hill. He has refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 elections and has been darkly hinting at violence if he were to lose the elections again this time.

Battle lines have clearly been drawn between the Republicans and the Democrats who treat each other less as political opponents and more as mortal adversaries. The cue comes from the top. Bad blood between President Biden and former president Trump was evident at the June 27 debate when they barely looked at each other, let alone shake hands or exchange courtesies.

Trump calls President Biden crooked and corrupt, besides using other epithets. The Democrats portray Trump as a self-serving, narcissistic demagogue or even a fascist, who needs to be stopped, as he poses a threat to the nation’s democratic institutions if he were to be re-elected. The Republicans allege that the Saturday shooting was a consequence of such rhetoric.

Be that as it may, there is no denying that the assassination bid is a watershed movement in American electoral history. It is bound to shake up the presidential race. Trump is likely to garner sympathy and courage votes resulting in a significant bump. He had a 3-6 per cent lead in opinion polls after the debate which is bound to widen further. If polls were to be held today, there is little doubt that he would romp home.

He exuded a renewed sense of confidence at the Republican convention. He has chosen Senator JD Vance as his running mate, who at 39 is half his age. Vance, a critic-turned-admirer of Trump, is the alter ego of his boss: Ultra-right and ambitious. Notably he’s married to Usha Chilukuri, a US born devout Hindu of Indian heritage.
While there is wind in Trump’s sails, Biden appears to be running out of gas. The highly polarised American society cannot agree on anything except one, that it is about time for President Biden to hang his boots. Signs of his growing frailty, physical and mental, were increasingly visible for everyone to see. But out of affection and loyalty for the holder of the world’s most powerful office few Democratic lawmakers are willing to say it out loud. They continue to pay lip-service in public while despairing and expressing serious concerns in private.

The ‘quit Biden’ chorus is being led by the mainstream media and intelligentsia instead. Only two groups continued to root for Biden, albeit for diametrically opposite reasons. His core supporters and the Trump camp. The former, hoping that we would bounce back as he had often done in the past, and the latter, concluding that he had been weakened interminably. The former cannot or does not want to see the writing on the wall and the latter sees it in bold letters: It is advantage Trump if Biden remains in the fray.

The President’s wife of 47 years, Jill, and son Hunter, whose counsel he values the most, have hardened his resolve (as of now) to fight it out. And arguably with some justification. Biden has dealt with excruciating personal tragedies and political setbacks his whole life but has always managed to bounce back. He lost his first wife and daughter in a road accident, when he was merely 29 and Beau, his elder son, to cancer in 2015. He was written off twice after failing his presidential bids in 1988 and 2008.

But what Biden or his supporters are failing to comprehend or opting to overlook is that the ticking biological clock cannot be reversed. Time has clearly taken its toll and it is showing. Whenever questioned about his age, Biden cites his accomplishments and record as President. Nobody is disputing that he has done a good job. But that is all behind him. The real issue is whether he continues to have the capacity to handle the burden of office over the next four-year term. To put it mildly, there is a serious question mark over it.

The President has since gone campaigning, held several meetings with voters, lawmakers and governors, and given interviews to dispel the misgivings. Nothing seems to be working. Even so, it is almost impossible to dislodge Biden from the ticket against his will. However, if the ripples of disapproval in the party turn into a tide, which is not impossible, the candidate would have no choice but to pull out.

The Democrats need a new, younger and energetic face to put up a meaningful fight against Trump — and do it fast as the Democratic convention is just a month away. That said, as of now, the world should start preparing itself for Trump 2.0. Dame luck appears to be smiling at him!

The author is a foreign affairs specialist and an ex-envoy to Canada and South Korea. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.