No American dream this season for Indians and Chinese: Is US losing its global classroom?

The United States, long regarded as the pinnacle of global higher education, is witnessing an unmistakable decline in interest from the two nations that have historically filled its classrooms and research labs — India and China.

Recent government data for August 2025, which coincides with the start of the fall academic term, shows a sharp and unprecedented drop in student arrivals from Asia.

The figures reveal that overall arrivals of foreign students in the US have declined by nearly 19 per cent compared with August 2024.

More specifically, arrivals from Asia — which typically accounts for about 70 per cent of international students — fell by 24 per cent, while arrivals from India and China dropped even further.

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The sharpest fall since the pandemic

According to the latest data released by the US government, over 86,000 students from mainland China and more than 41,000 from India entered the United States in August 2025.

These figures, though still substantial, represent marked declines of 12.4 per cent and 44.5 per cent respectively from last year.

The fall in Indian enrolments is especially striking.

The country, which now accounts for nearly one in three international students studying in the US, has registered its steepest drop on record outside the Covid-19 pandemic.

Data analysed by The New York Times using official figures from US Trade.gov highlights that Indian arrivals fell by 44 per cent in August 2025 — far greater than the overall international decline of 19 per cent.

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By contrast, while Chinese enrolments also decreased, their drop was more moderate.

One in five international students in the US is still from China, but the downward slope suggests that both major Asian contributors are reassessing their options.

South Korea, another leading Asian source, saw an 11 per cent fall in arrivals.

These figures are particularly significant because August data has long been considered a reliable indicator of upcoming semester enrolments.

The steep drop in arrivals this year, therefore, is not an isolated fluctuation but a reflection of deeper, structural changes affecting foreign student mobility to the United States.

US policy tightening under Trump 2.0

Several factors lie behind this trend, but a prominent one is the series of policy decisions undertaken by the Trump administration.

In June, the administration introduced a new set of immigration and education measures that directly affect international students. These include enhanced social media vetting for F-1 visa applicants, longer processing times, and a travel ban covering 19 countries.

Many Indian applicants faced delays as the US State Department suspended student visa interviews for three weeks during the peak summer months. When interviews resumed, appointment backlogs stretched for months.

Consequently, thousands of students missed the opportunity to secure their visas in time for the autumn semester.

During the same period, official data recorded a 22 per cent drop in F-1 visa issuances compared to the previous year.

These disruptions, coupled with stricter checks, have contributed to the most significant slowdown in international student inflows to the US since travel restrictions were lifted after the pandemic.

Adding to the unease, the Trump administration has revived a tougher approach to monitoring foreign students. Universities have been instructed to increase oversight of foreign nationals, particularly from Asian countries.

The administration also revoked more than 1,500 student visas earlier this year before later reinstating them, a move that sent a signal of uncertainty through the academic community.

The Trump administration’s repeated warnings about possible deportations linked to political activity on campuses have also had a chilling effect.

In March, several foreign students were briefly detained for participating in pro-Palestinian demonstrations before a court declared their detention unconstitutional.

Since then, university administrators have privately advised students to limit political expression and avoid travel outside the country, citing the risk of visa complications upon re-entry. For many, this has made the US appear less welcoming than before.

The “Compact for Academic Excellence”

The Trump administration has also issued a formal directive to nine of the country’s most prominent universities — the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Arizona, Brown University, Dartmouth College, the University of Southern California, the University of Texas, the University of Virginia, and Vanderbilt University — warning them to cap their international undergraduate enrolments at 15 per cent.

This measure, part of a government memo titled “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education,” requires that no more than five per cent of undergraduates at any institution may originate from a single foreign country.

Universities that fail to comply risk losing access to preferential federal funding.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the memo also instructs universities to make admissions and hiring decisions without considering race or gender.

Institutions are directed to publish anonymised admissions data broken down by race, nationality, and gender, and to eliminate any department that “deliberately punish, demean, or incite hostility toward conservative viewpoints.”

As part of the same compact, universities are mandated to freeze tuition fees for five years, disclose average graduate earnings by programme, and cut administrative costs.

Institutions with large endowments — exceeding $2 million per undergraduate student — are required to offer tuition waivers for students enrolled in hard science disciplines such as physics, chemistry, and biology.

While the White House has not publicly commented on why these nine universities were selected, a White House official quoted by Bloomberg stated that they were chosen because their leadership had shown “readiness to participate in the initiative and provide feedback on the proposal.”

How this has affected US universities

This has had immediate consequences for universities that have traditionally depended on international students.

At DePaul University, the administration informed faculty that it would be cutting spending due to a 30 per cent decline in international enrolment.

A Reuters report noted that DePaul is one of several institutions “coping with the disruptive education and immigration policies of President Donald Trump.”

The University of Central Missouri recorded a 50 per cent drop in new international student enrolments, while Ohio State University and Indiana University each saw declines between 30 and 40 per cent.

These reductions not only strain university finances but also impact staffing, particularly in STEM-related graduate programmes where international students often serve as teaching or research assistants.

The Association of International Educators (NAFSA) estimates that the current downturn could cost the US economy around $7 billion this academic year.

International students contribute significantly to tuition revenue, housing markets, and local economies surrounding campuses. A protracted decline could therefore ripple far beyond universities, affecting research output, innovation, and workforce development.

How the global education map is changing

The introduction of a $100,000 H-1B visa fee for foreign graduates seeking employment in the US has made post-study opportunities increasingly unaffordable.

Combined with rising living expenses and inflation, these costs are pushing many students to reconsider whether an American degree is worth the investment.

Therefore, students are shifting towards alternative destinations that offer clearer pathways to work and residence.

Canada has seen a sharp rise in Indian student enrolments, driven by its simplified visa process and favourable post-graduation work policies.

The United Kingdom has also attracted record numbers of Indian applicants, aided by its reinstated two-year post-study work visa and universities that have actively courted students from India.

Australia and Germany, too, are emerging as major education destinations, particularly for engineering and technology disciplines.

Analysts believe that these countries are benefiting from a perception of stability and predictability that contrasts with the current US environment.

With inputs from agencies