Sinan Ogan: Far-right leader who could be ‘kingmaker’ in Turkey runoff elections

Turkey will vote again on 28 May after no presidential candidate secured an outright majority in the first round. As per data released by the country’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) on Monday (15 May), incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan garnered 49.5 per cent of the votes cast, while his main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu got 44.88 per cent votes. Sinan Ogan, the third candidate, who is now being viewed as a potential “kingmaker”, received 5.17 per cent votes. To win, a candidate has to bag more than 50 per cent of the polled votes. With Ogan out of the race, the presidential runoff election will pit Kilicdaroglu against Erdogan in a head-to-head contest. But who Ogan supports could turn the tide in Turkey elections. Who is Sinan Ogan and which candidate would he endorse? Let’s take a look. The potential ‘kingmaker’ Born in 1967 to an Azerbaijani family in the city of Igdir in eastern Turkey, Ogan is a former academic who has also worked for think tanks. He completed his PhD in international relations and political science from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. The 55-year-old also has a master’s degree in financial law, as per a FRANCE 24 report.

Ogan made his plunge into politics with the Erdogan-allied far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

In 2011, he was elected to the Turkish parliament from his native Igdir province. He split with the MHP in 2017 when he refused to support the constitutional referendum that would the following year alter Turkey’s parliamentary system to its current presidential one. Ogan was among the few party leaders who opposed MHP leader Devlet Bahceli’s decision to throw his weight behind Erdogan’s bid to launch an executive presidency, FRANCE 24 reported. [caption id=“attachment_12603662” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Ultra-nationalist leader Sinan Ogan could play the kingmaker in the Turkey runoff elections. Reuters[/caption] Murat Yildiz, a former adviser for the MHP who has previously worked with Ogan, told Al Jazeera, “He’s a calm guy, straightforward. Since his early political career, he always aimed for the leadership of the MHP. He was the crown prince to Bahceli and had a good relationship with him.” “But as his popularity increased, Bahceli started to see him as a threat,” Yildiz said. “They slowly started to fall apart. Ogan has a certain ego, which Bahceli also didn’t like.” Despite being expelled from the MHP, Ogan did not join or establish any other political party, Al Jazeera noted. Ogan entered the 2023 presidential race and forged the ultra-nationalist Ancestor Alliance with Umit Ozdag, his former MHP colleague, who formed the anti-immigrant Victory (Zafer) Party, reported FRANCE 24. According to Middle East Eye (MEE), Ogan built his campaign largely around the promise of sending refugees back to their countries and fighting terrorism. ALSO READ: Elections done, but no president yet: Why Turkey is likely to go to polls again Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu? In an interview with Reuters on Monday, Ogan said he could back Kilicdaroglu , the joint candidate of six Opposition parties, in the runoff if he promises not to offer “concessions” to the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). “We will consult with our voter base for our decision in the runoff. But we already made clear that the fight against terrorism and sending refugees back are our red lines,” the ultra-nationalist candidate added. “At the moment, we are not saying we will support this or that [candidate]…It seemed from the very beginning that the elections would go to the second round, and Turkish nationalists and Kemalists will be the ones who determine the second round”, Ogan said on early Monday, as per Al Jazeera. Kemalism is used to describe modern Turkey’s “secular, pro-republican state ideology” as conceived by its founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, according to the CNN report. In March, when asked who he will support in case of a runoff, Ogan said that his alliance would consider each candidate’s “national stances and competence” and “at the situation of affiliation with terrorism and seeking help from terrorism”, the report said. “We will decide with common sense,” Ogan said at the time. “Common sense shows us that we may not be able to promise heaven, but it’s time to close the gates of hell.” His emphasis on terrorism is significant as, for Turkish nationalists, both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have support from “terror groups”. The HDP backed Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy in these elections, while Erdogan received support from Huda-Par, a mainly Kurdish political Islamist party, noted Al Jazeera. Ogan told Reuters on Monday that he aimed to ouster mainly two Kurdish parties from Turkey’s “political equation” and strengthen the country’s nationalists and secularists. Speaking to CNN, Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul, said that Ogan has spoken against both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. However, the majority of his supporters are “closer” to the incumbent president who has ruled Turkey for 20 years than his secular rival. Yunus Kaya, a professor at Istanbul University, told MEE that Ogan cannot bring his five per cent votes “as a whole” to one of the candidates. “The political parties that back him received less than 2.5 per cent. It means that Ogan lured protest votes from independently acting voters.” “Rather, his votes in Erdogan-dominated cities would go to Erdogan and in Kilicdaroglu-dominated cities would go to Kilicdaroglu,” he stated. [caption id=“attachment_12603682” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The first round of elections shows that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has an advantage over his rival main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Reuters[/caption] According to FRANCE 24’s Jasper Mortimer, Erdogan is in control of the situation with Ogan. “Some of Sinan Ogan’s voters will vote for Erdogan. But the bottom line is Erdogan clearly won, he needs just 0.5 percent to make 50 per cent of the vote. They’re not asking him for support, maybe Erdogan is offering him something, but Erdogan doesn’t need to,” Mortimer stated. What the voting for Ogan reveals

Ogan performed better in the 14 May general elections than the opinion polls had predicted.

“The fact that Sinan Ogan won above five per cent of the vote underlines that unadulterated ultra-nationalism is well and alive in Turkey,” political risk consultant Anthony Skinner told the news agency AFP. “Ogan received the protest votes from different segments of the society,” Kaya was quoted as saying by MEE. This included “nationalists and seculars who were disappointed with the tacit alliance between Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish YSP”, according to Kaya. “The undeclared CHP-YSP alliance irked some voters. Also, the anti-refugee sentiment has a platform for itself, now,” he explained. As per Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Sabanci University, Turkish nationalist voters who do not support Erdogan for his alliance with Huda-Par and were against Kilicdaroglu’s ties with the HDP chose Ogan. “Many swing voters went for Sinan Ogan, partly because of the nationalist card but partly because he was a ‘none of the above’ candidate,” Esen was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera.   Ceylan Akca, a parliamentary candidate for Green Left Party in predominantly Kurdish Diyarbakir province, told CNN that Ogan’s votes point to a “rise of a right-wing, nationalist and anti-refugee wave in Turkey”. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .