 "Trump and tariffs: Why Liberals have surged into lead against Conservatives in Canada's election")
Canadian politics has been turned on its head.
Earlier this year, the Conservative Party was favoured to take power from the Liberals in the 2025 federal elections.
But now, with just days to go for the polls, the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holds an advantage over the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre.
But what happened? What’s behind the turnaround?
Let’s take a closer look:
What happened?
Just months ago, Justin Trudeau was at the helm as prime minister.
Trudeau, who had been leading Canada for a decade, was growing increasingly unpopular with the public and even among his own Liberal Party.
In December, Canada’s finance minister Chrystia Freeland, a long-time Trudeau supporter and loyalist, quit the government.
Trudeau was also facing calls from Jagmeet Singh, leader of the opposition New Democratic Party – which Trudeau’s Liberals had previously relied upon to stay in power – for him to resign.
“He has to go,” Singh said at the time.
With federal elections in Canada just months away, the Conservatives under Poilievre looked all set to take power.
Trudeau, recognising the danger that lay ahead, stepped down from his post in January.
“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy” are “something that I hold dear,” said Trudeau.
At the time, the Conservatives were sitting pretty.
But now, with just days left for the polls, the entire political equation has changed in Canada.
What do polls show?
The latest polls show that the Liberals are slightly ahead of the Conservatives.
Global News.ca quoted its latest Ipsos poll as showing that the Liberals had a three-point lead over the Conservatives – within the 3.8 per cent margin of error and the closest gap since campaigning began.
The poll was conducted after the previous week’s televised leaders’ debates.
It showed that 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, while 38 per cent said they would cast their ballot for the Conservatives.
That’s a three point swing in favour of Poilievre’s party.
However, Carney remains the choice of most respondents for prime minister of Canada – leading Poilievre 41 per cent to 36 per cent.
Meanwhile, the New Democrats were at 12 per cent support, while the Bloc Quebecois was at five per cent.
The Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada were at two per cent support each.
As per NDTV, a CBC poll tracker shows that 43 per cent of Canadians would likely vote for the Liberals, while 38 per cent of respondents would go for the Conservatives.
In the latest Nanos poll, which was conducted during a three-day period that ended April 20, the Liberals led by eight percentage points.
Compare these polls to mid-January when a poll by Nanos showed the Liberals trailed the opposition Conservatives and Poilievre 47 per cent to 20 per cent.
In February, the Conservatives held a massive 25-point lead over the Liberals, as per The Guardian.
In March, the Conservatives were ahead with 40 per cent of voters, while the Liberals had support of 30 per cent of voters, as per BBC.
What’s behind the turnaround?
The two Ts – Trump and tariffs.
Trump’s trade war and his talk of making Canada the 51st US state have infuriated Canadians, who are booing the American anthem at NHL and NBA games.
Trump repeatedly made references to Canada as the 51st state and ‘Governor Trudeau.’
Some are cancelling trips south of the border, and many are avoiding buying American goods when they can.
The surge in Canadian nationalism has bolstered the Liberal Party’s chances federally and Liberal showings have been improving in opinion polls.
“What Canadians are looking for in the country’s next leader has shifted,”Andrew Enns, a pollster from the market research firm Leger, told Financial Times. “For 18 months it’s been really predictable and a pedestrian national political landscape. Poilievre had an enormous lead, everyone had conceded it was a cakewalk for the Conservatives.”
Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, told BBC that Trump’s rhetoric has “pushed away all of the other issues” that were top of mind for Canadians.
Turgeon says “rallying around the flag” has become a key theme in Canadian politics.
“Trump is like a flaming freight train that is igniting everything in its path,” Kory Teneycke, a conservative Canadian campaign director, said in March. “It’s not just a big thing. It’s almost the only thing that is moving the electorate right now.”
Canada’s federal Conservatives and their leader Pierre Poilievre were heading for a massive victory in Canada’s federal election this year — until, Teneycke says, Trump’s near-daily trade and annexation threats derailed them.
“It’s the kiss of death to have JD Vance say something nice about you or have Elon Musk tweet out support for you. Every time Musk says something nice about Pierre Poilievre he goes down a point or two,” he said. “Stop helping. You are not helping.”
Teneycke didn’t spare the Conservatives from criticism.
“Blowing a 25-point lead and being, like, 10 points down is fucking campaign malpractice at the highest fucking level. And I’m sorry to have to point that out, Conservatives, but that is the actual reality,” he told The Guardian.
“This campaign is going to be studied for decades as the biggest fucking disaster in terms of having lost a massive lead in ways that were so obvious, with so much information.”
“The Trumpy hectoring of people, the slogans, the big rallies — like it all just seems like so Trump. And people are not loving Trump right now in Canada,” Teneycke added.
“(Poilievre’s) style and his approach to politics certainly channel a lot of Trump. It’s like a cheap karaoke version of Trump."
Robert Bothwell, a professor of Canadian history and international relations at the University of Toronto, said, “They are coming right back from the dead. I am amazed. And it is all Trump.”
Bothwell says Trump’s appeal is merely to American nationalism — what he calls a type of it “that is offensive to all foreigners.” He says Canadians are rallying around the flag as if it’s wartime.
“If somebody comes up and kicks sand in your face and then spits in your eye, you don’t like it,” Bothwell said. “It’s a response to provocation. And a very serious provocation.”
The ascension of Carney, a two-time central banker, to Liberal Party leader and prime minister on March 14, has also shifted the political ground somewhat.
“Timing is everything in politics, and Carney entered the political arena at a most favourable time,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.
“This election is a test about whether Canada will embrace or reject populism,” Béland said, suggesting many voters view Carney as reassuring because of his experience and calm.
“Without the Trump effect, the Conservatives would probably be in a much stronger position in the polls right now,” he said. “If Trump wasn’t currently in the White House, it would be hard to imagine the Liberals being the favorites in this federal race, considering how unpopular they were just a few months ago.”
Carney has gone on the attack against Trump.
“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” Carney was quoted as saying by the BBC.
Carney said that the 80-year period when the U.S. embraced the mantle of global economic leadership and forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect is over.
“There is no going back. We in Canada will have to build a new relationship with the United States,” he said.
If elected, Carney said that he would accelerate renegotiations of the free trade deal with the U.S. in an effort to end the uncertainty hurting both economies.
“President Trump is trying to fundamentally restructure the international trading system and in the process he’s rupturing the global economy,” Carney said.
“The core question is who is going to be at the table for Canada,” he said.
Carney has also sought to link Poilievre to Trump.
To be fair, Poilievre, a career politician and firebrand populist, has campaigned with Trump-like braggadocio, even taking a page from the “America First” president by adopting the slogan “Canada First.”
The US president has sought to play down any comparisons, telling The Spectator that Poilievre is “not Maga enough.”
Trump has said he isn’t concerned that his trade war with Canada was boosting the Liberal Party ahead of the parliamentary elections.
And although he said Poilievre’s views are more aligned than Carney’s with his own, he’s not a fan of Poilievre.
“The conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine,” Trump has said, criticising Poilievre for “saying negative things.”
Conservatives making comeback?
However, it must be noted that the Conservatives have been gaining ground in recent weeks.
This comes as Trump as somewhat scaled back his rhetoric on Canada.
But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said this month that Trump hadn’t changed his position that Canada “would benefit greatly by becoming the 51st state.”
As per Globalnews.ca, the Liberals had a 12-point advantage over their rivals just two weeks ago.
“At the present time, the Trump issue is kind of drifting out of focus and we’re moving back more to domestic issues, and particularly the issue of personal affordability,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. “That’s an advantage for the Conservatives.”
“Mr Carney leads on most things related to the economy, but they’re big things (like) how is the economy performing overall,” Bricker told the outlet.
“But when it comes down to the basics, like what are the ‘kitchen table’ economics really, that’s where interestingly enough the Conservatives have an advantage and Mr. Poilievre has an advantage, and we’ve seen that consistently throughout the campaign.
“What’s happened, though, is that issue which was really big a couple months ago … has now started to emerge again.”
Ipsos said the Conservatives’ latest poll numbers “suggests an emerging underdog effect.”
It remains to be seen which way the Canadian electorate goes.
With inputs from agencies
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