Why former British PM Tony Blair could end up governing Palestine

The conflict in Gaza has left tens of thousands dead and millions displaced.

Amidst the turmoil, an unexpected figure has emerged in the ongoing effort to rebuild and govern the territory once the fighting ceases.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a polarising figure in the region, is being considered to lead a new transitional authority that would take charge of Gaza’s administration under a peace plan spearheaded by United States President Donald Trump, reported the Financial Times on Thursday.

The proposal, which has been under quiet discussion for months, has now gained momentum following a series of high-level meetings between Trump, Arab and Muslim leaders, and international diplomats at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York.

While the plan has not been finaliSed, it represents one of the most ambitious attempts to chart a course for Gaza’s future since the current war began.

What is this new vision for post-war Gaza?

At the heart of Trump’s strategy is the establishment of a Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA), a temporary governing body modelled on international administrations used in the past to guide territories like East Timor and Kosovo toward self-rule and eventual statehood.

The idea is to create a neutral structure to oversee reconstruction, security, and governance in Gaza while preparing the ground for unifying the territory with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank.

According to reports shared by officials and diplomats, the proposed transitional authority would have sweeping responsibilities.

Initially, it would be based in el-Arish, a provincial capital in Egypt near Gaza’s southern border, to allow for organisational planning and international coordination before entering Gaza itself.

Once conditions are stable enough, the authority would move into Gaza alongside a multinational stabilisation force endorsed by the United Nations and largely composed of Arab troops.

This plan is designed to prevent a power vacuum after the war and to ensure that governance does not immediately revert to existing factions.

It also specifically rules out the forced displacement of Palestinians, an idea previously floated in earlier proposals that sparked widespread fear among Gazans and drew international condemnation.

How is Trump involved?

During the ongoing UNGA, Trump convened a closed-door meeting with key regional leaders and senior officials, including representatives from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, and Indonesia.

These talks followed earlier consultations at the White House that included Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former West Asian adviser, as well as other US officials.

Speaking to reporters afterward, Trump described the discussions as constructive, saying, “We’re close to getting some kind of deal done.”

He has said that his approach seeks to balance competing interests in the region and avoid repeating past mistakes.

In a firm statement made while signing executive orders in the Oval Office, he declared, “I will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank. Nope. I won’t allow it. It’s not going to happen.”

Trump’s plan represents a compromise between his earlier, more aggressive ideas and a UN-backed proposal known as the New York Declaration, which was endorsed by over 140 countries.

The earlier UN plan called for a one-year technocratic interim administration that would quickly transfer power to a reformed Palestinian Authority after elections and constitutional changes.

In contrast, Trump’s approach allows for a longer transitional period under international supervision, with no fixed timeline for the handover of authority, giving the new body time to establish order and rebuild institutions.

What do we know about the Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA)?

Under the draft plan, GITA would act as Gaza’s “supreme political and legal authority” for up to five years, though some diplomats have suggested it might be in place for as little as two years depending on conditions on the ground.

The governance model is complex and multi-layered. At the top would be a seven- to ten-member governing board, chaired by Tony Blair if he accepts the role.

This board would include:

• At least one qualified Palestinian representative, potentially drawn from the business or security sectors,

• A senior UN official,

• A strong contingent of Muslim members,

• International figures with significant executive and financial experience.

The board’s task would be to set policy, coordinate with international stakeholders, and supervise an executive secretariat of up to 25 personnel.

Beneath this structure, five commissioners would oversee the most critical areas of governance:

• Humanitarian Affairs – coordinating relief efforts with international and local organisations.

• Reconstruction – managing rebuilding projects for housing, infrastructure, and essential services.

• Security – establishing and training a new civil police force that is nationally recruited, professionally vetted, and nonpartisan.

• Legislation and Legal Affairs – ensuring rule of law and protecting property rights.

• Palestinian Authority Coordination – aligning GITA’s decisions with broader Palestinian governance efforts.

One notable element of the proposal is the creation of a Property Rights Preservation Unit, which would safeguard the ownership rights of Palestinians who voluntarily leave Gaza during the reconstruction period.

This measure aims to prevent accusations of land grabs or forced resettlement.

Alongside GITA, a Palestinian Executive Authority (PEA) would be established to deliver services directly to the population through technocratic ministries covering health, education, finance, infrastructure, welfare, and judicial affairs.

The PEA’s operations would be designed to be nonpartisan and professional, offering a pathway for eventual integration into a fully sovereign Palestinian administration.

What will be Tony Blair’s role?

Tony Blair’s involvement in the plan is both crucial and controversial. After leaving Downing Street in 2007, Blair served for eight years as Middle East envoy for the Quartet — a diplomatic group comprising the US, EU, Russia, and the UN — until 2015.

During that time, he built close relationships with Gulf leaders and other regional actors, earning a reputation as a skilled negotiator in certain circles.

However, Blair is deeply unpopular among Palestinians and in parts of the wider Arab world.

His role in supporting the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq is widely resented, and many Palestinians accuse him of having hindered their aspirations for statehood during his tenure as Middle East envoy.

For this reason, his potential appointment to govern Gaza is likely to spark strong opposition.

Despite these challenges, some US officials and advisers have pushed for Blair’s leadership, arguing that his international stature and experience make him uniquely suited to manage the complex political environment.

Sources cited by The Economist said Blair was “willing to sacrifice his time” to help end the war and oversee Gaza’s transition.

If confirmed, Blair would not only chair GITA’s governing board but also play a key role in coordinating with donor nations, overseeing international reconstruction funds, and ensuring security arrangements are implemented effectively.

How have Arab & Palestinian players reacted?

While several states — including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar — have expressed cautious optimism about Trump’s plan, they have also stressed that their participation in an international peacekeeping force depends on having a clear roadmap to Palestinian statehood.

Without this, they fear GITA could simply represent another form of foreign occupation.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, speaking to the UNGA via video link after his visa to the US was revoked, pointed out that Hamas must have no role in Gaza’s future governance, aligning with a key condition set by both the US and Israel.

He stated, “Gaza is an integral part of the state of Palestine, and that we are ready to bear full responsibility for governance and security there.”

However, the PA currently has no direct involvement in ceasefire or reconstruction negotiations, as Israel has publicly opposed giving the body any role in Gaza.

Abbas’s advisers have privately warned that a prolonged international trusteeship led by Blair could “turn into an occupation” if it does not explicitly lay out steps toward self-governance and statehood.

What is Israel’s position in this?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to destroy Hamas and has historically resisted any arrangement that strengthens the PA.

In March, Netanyahu broke the last ceasefire and launched a fresh offensive on Gaza City, the largest urban centre in the territory.

While Israel has shown some willingness to engage with the GITA concept “constructively,” according to diplomatic sources, Netanyahu has not publicly endorsed the plan.

His upcoming meeting with Trump in Washington next week, is expected to be pivotal in determining whether Israel will agree to halt its military operations and cooperate with the international stabilisation effort.

The stakes are high: the war has already resulted in over 65,000 Palestinian deaths, according to health officials in Gaza.

Trump’s proposal envisions a phased Israeli withdrawal, with forces first redeploying to positions held during a temporary ceasefire earlier this year, and then fully exiting the territory once the multinational stabilisation force is operational.

What about the Hamas-held hostages?

The entire framework depends on achieving a lasting ceasefire and resolving the issue of hostages.

Hamas triggered the current war with its October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and led to a massive Israeli military response.

Under Trump’s plan, a permanent ceasefire would be reached alongside a comprehensive hostage deal, with the release of all remaining captives held by Hamas.

Approximately 20 hostages are believed to still be alive.

Once the ceasefire is in place and the hostages are freed, GITA would take over governance responsibilities while the stabilisation force works to secure the area and prevent a resurgence of militant activity.

Hamas would have no role whatsoever in the new political order, a condition strongly supported by both Washington and Tel Aviv.

Are there any other Gaza proposals?

The US-backed plan is not the only vision for Gaza’s future. The New York Declaration, endorsed by a large majority of UN member states, calls for a much shorter interim period.

It proposes a one-year technocratic government, which would then hand power to a reformed Palestinian Authority following constitutional revisions and democratic elections.

Some European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have been working to reconcile the two approaches.

Arab states generally favour the UN plan because it sets a clearer timeline for Palestinian statehood, while the White House plan gives more leeway to international overseers and extends Blair’s potential mandate.

This difference in timelines is a central point of contention.

Many Palestinians and Arab leaders fear that an open-ended international trusteeship could become permanent, echoing past experiences of indefinite occupation.

Conversely, Israeli officials and some US advisers prefer the flexibility of a longer transition, arguing that a rushed handover could destabilise the region further.

For Tony Blair, the task would be particularly daunting.

Critics argue that his leadership might alienate the very population the transitional authority is meant to serve, undermining efforts to stabilise Gaza.

Nevertheless, some Western diplomats believe that Blair’s involvement could reassure Israel and Western donors, making it easier to mobilise the massive resources needed for reconstruction and humanitarian relief.

With inputs from agencies