 "Representational image. File image/ AFP")
Many people are worried about India and Pakistan possibly going to war in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack.
The Resistance Force (TRF), an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, had claimed responsibility for the assault on Basaran Valley which left 26 dead.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said that the armed forces have “complete operational freedom” to decide on the mode, targets and timing of India’s response to the terror attack.
He made the remarks while chairing a high-level meeting attended by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and the chiefs of three services.
But if war breaks out, New Delhi will have to contend with Islamabad employing terrorists to do its dirty work and its soldiers relying on Chinese arms and equipment
Let’s take a closer look
Terrorists
India Today has reported that the Pakistani Army has begun evacuating several terror launch pads across Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
The terrorists are being moved into army shelters and bunkers, as per intelligence sources.
Terrorists are being shifted from locations in Kel, Sardi, Dudhnial, Athmuqam, Jura, Lipa, Pachhiban, Forward Kahuta, Kotli, Khuiratta, Mandhar, Nikail, Chamankot, and Jankote.
There are at least 42 terror launch pads across Jammu and Kashmir containing between 150 and 200 terrorists.
The outlet earlier reported that there are 60 foreign terrorists from Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) currently active in Jammu and Kashmir as well as 17 local militants.
The development comes after news earlier today emerged that Pakistan had shielded the TRF at the UN.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar admitted that he got the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to delete the name of the TRF from a press statement condemning the terror attack.
“On behalf of Pakistan , I had two objections [to the statement]. First, only Pahalgam was mentioned and secondly, the blame was put on The Resistance Forum,” Dar was quoted as saying by India Today.
Dar was using an alternate name for the TRF.
“I gave clear instructions to our ambassador at the UN to ensure the amendments are made,” Dar said. “I received phone calls from big capitals to come to a consensus on the draft, but I told them nothing doing,”
The council in its statement said “terrorism in all its forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most serious threats to international peace and security.”
It added that acts of terrorism are “criminal and unjustifiable.”
The council said those responsible for this “reprehensible act of terrorism” must be brought to justice.
Chinese arms and equipment
It was earlier reported that the terrorists in the Pahalgam attack used Chinese equipment and apps to avoid detection from Indian authorities and to keep in touch with their Pakistani handlers.
Islamabad will have to rely on arms and equipment from Beijing if conflict breaks out with India.
As per Indian Defence Research Wing, reports emerged on social media earlier this week that Pakistan has positioned Chinese artillery systems in the crowded areas of Lahore.
The SH-15 truck mounted 155mm/52 calibre artillery system could be capable of reaching targets up to 53 kilometers away – as far as Amritsar in India.
The system known as PCL-181 in China is a howitzer developed by China’s North Industries Corporation (Norinco).
China has already thrown its weight behind Pakistan in case of a conflict during a phone conversation between its foreign minister Wang Yi and Dar.
Expressing deep appreciation for China’s consistent and unwavering support, the minister assured Pakistan’s strong commitment to the Pakistan-China friendship and the shared vision of an All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership.
Both sides agreed to maintain close communication and coordination at all levels to advance their shared objectives of peace, security, and sustainable development in the region and beyond.
What do experts say?
Some say India does not want to heighten tensions further.
“India is not looking to escalate this crisis,” ex-Indian ambassador Yogesh Gupta told SCMP.
“We are only interested to re-establish the deterrence for Pakistan’s terror strikes against India as in the post-Balakot period, which has broken now,” Gupta said.
Gupta called Pakistan army chief Asim Munir “far more hostile” than his predecessor Qamar Bajwa.
Consequently, “this [Indian] deterrence will need to be established at a much higher level”, Gupta said.
However, Asfandyar Mir, a South Asia security analyst based in Washington, said the two countries were likely “moving toward a hot conflict, which is likely to be more intense than the 2019 crisis”.
“The mood in India is one of vengeance, and Indian leadership appears committed to imposing an enormous cost on Pakistan,” Mir said.
He said that Pakistan is “equally prepared to counter any Indian action and respond forcefully and swiftly”.
“2019 showed that India did not have escalation dominance,” added C Christine Fair, a security studies professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in Washington. “It’s impossible to say how the crisis would have ended.”
Mir said the presence of China – which he called a ‘concurrent threat’ – makes things more difficult for India.
China-Pakistan ties “also remain strong and it’s plausible that China will provide the help Pakistan needs to stay in the fight with India”, Mir added.
Gupta told the outlet Beijing has been giving Islamabad nuclear technology, heavy arms, advanced warships and fighter aircraft – all to use against India.
“So we [India] are not surprised that it has decided to supply more arms to Pakistan now, in the hope that a war between Pakistan and India would weaken the latter,” Gupta added.
With inputs from agencies