Why Sheikh Hasina’s ouster from Bangladesh is bad news for India

Sheikh Hasina has left the building; literally and figuratively. The 76-year-old leader, who holds the honour of being Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister, fled the country after quitting on Monday (August 5) amid protests calling for her resignation.

Hasina’s exit has plunged Bangladesh into political turmoil — an interim government will be announced who will run the administration of the country. But the 76-year-old leader’s departure will have a larger impact that extends beyond Bangladesh.

India, which neighbours Bangladesh, will also be affected by the exit of Hasina, with experts pointing out that the new developments and the uncertainty in Dhaka will also give rise to several headaches for New Delhi.

Want to know how? Read on to find out more.

India loses its strongest ally

Sheikh Hasina’s departure from Bangladesh after a 17-year-old tenure means that India has lost its strongest ally in the region. Hasina had always been a friend to India; in the region where New Delhi faces hostile neighbours like Pakistan and shares uncertain ties with countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Hasina remained a staunch friend, extending support to New Delhi.

However, now with her resignation and fleeing the nation — with some reports saying that she will now seek asylum in the UK — India will have to regroup and lay the new groundwork to set up diplomatic ties with the neighbouring country.

Geopolitical pundits note that this will not be an easy task for India. There is already a strong anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. There have been indicators of anti-India anger amid these quota protests due to the perception that India was helping Hasina cling to power. India’s decision to provide safe passage to Hasina will also anger people, making it that much more difficult for India to reset ties with the neighbouring country.

Defence ties, and security

Under Hasina’s regime, India and Bangladesh’s defence ties were on the rise. As a source told the Times of India, “Despite China’s expanding influence in Bangladesh, Dhaka’s bilateral defence ties with New Delhi were on an upswing. But everything is in a state of flux now.”

A month ago, Bangladesh inked a deal with Indian defence shipyard GRSE in Kolkata to build an 800-tonne advanced ocean-going tug. There were also talks for Bangladesh to buy Indian offshore patrol vessels as well as get spares for maintenance for its Russian-origin MiG-29 and Mi-17 helicopters.

Besides this, the two countries have held close military ties, with the Indian military establishment providing training to Bangladesh personnel.

However, this may change with Hasina’s ouster. The incoming interim government may not wish to choose the same path as Hasina did on matters of defence cooperation. However, some believe that defence ties will largely remain the same as Bangladesh’s army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman is pro-India. “As the principal staff officer of the Armed Forces Division of Bangladesh earlier, he co-chaired with the Indian defence secretary the bilateral annual defence dialogues in 2022 and 2023,” a source was quoted as telling the Times of India.

There’s also a concern in New Delhi over security. India and Bangladesh share an over 4,000-km-long border. While Hasina was in power, she was sympathetic towards India’s security requirements. However, with a new government, it is unknown if they share the same beliefs.

For instance, insurgent groups operating in northeast India often take sanctuary in Bangladesh owing to the porous border that the two nations share. However, on Hasina’s watch, India’s northeastern border was relatively calm because she had not allowed Bangladesh to be used by insurgent groups.t

Moreover, unrest in Bangladesh could lead to a large-scale influx of refugees fleeing atrocities in India. The Border Security Force (BSF) already issued a high alert across the international border. Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, leader of Tripura’s Tipra Motha, said that he had spoken to Union Home Minister Amit Shah and has been assured that no infiltration would be allowed.

India will also have to contend with the rise of the Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh in Hasina’s absence. Without Hasina, there’s a strong possibility of the Jamaat-e-Islami growing in prominence, which could open the doors for Pakistan’s return into Bangladeshi polity. This could also fuel a stronger anti-India sentiment, which will pose more problems for the Narendra Modi administration.

Trade and infra

India and Bangladesh, being neighbours, have a strong trade relationship. In trade terms, Bangladesh is India’s biggest partner in the subcontinent, and India is Bangladesh’s second biggest partner in Asia after China. The total bilateral trade amounted to $13 billion in the financial year 2023-24, according to the Union Ministry of Commerce.

In October last year, India and Bangladesh began discussions on an FTA, which would help reduce custom duties on goods traded. As per a 2012 paper published by the World Bank, an FTA between the two nations would boost Bangladesh’s exports to India by 182 per cent whereas a partial FTA could lead to a 134 per cent increase. As Indian Express notes, it is unclear if and how an FTA plan would proceed under the interim Bangladeshi government, or the dispensation to follow.

With Hasina at the helm, India also improved its infrastructural ties with Bangladesh. In November 2023, two joint projects – the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link and Khulna-Mongla Port rail line – were inaugurated. The Akhaura-Agartala rail link cuts down the travel time (by train) between Agartala and Kolkata from 31 hours to 10 hours.

However, a disruption in the power dynamics in Bangladesh could affect such projects in the future. It remains unknown if operational bus routes between India and Bangladesh will continue to proceed under the new administration.

China comes knocking

China, known for fishing in troubled waters, will also use the political turmoil in Bangladesh as a perfect opportunity to swoop in and attempt to exert more influence in the region. This does not bode well for New Delhi and its strategic outlook in the region.

In recent years, India’s neighbourhood whether it is Sri Lanka or Myanmar or Afghanistan has seen unrest. In such a situation, China has always tried to swoop in and Bangladesh, as experts believe would be no different.

As The Economic Times points out: China and Pakistan to the west and north, a communist-led government in Nepal, Taliban-controlled Afghanistan to the far west, an anti-India Maldives in the Indian Ocean, and a potentially ambivalent regime in Bangladesh. This scenario would be detrimental to India’s strategic considerations.

Experts speak

Most geopolitical pundits also note that the exit of Hasina is problematic for India. Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Centre, an American think-tank, told the BBC that Hasina’s resignation is a “close to a worst-case scenario for India, as it has long viewed any alternative to Hasina and her party as a threat to Indian interests”.

He added that Delhi will likely reach out to Bangladesh’s military to convey its concerns and hope its interests are taken into account in an interim government. “Beyond that, India will have to watch and wait nervously. It may support free and fair elections in the interest of stability, but it doesn’t want the BNP — even if it has grown weak and divided — to return. Delhi likely wouldn’t oppose a long period of interim rule for that reason.”

An unnamed diplomat was quoted by the BBC saying: “India doesn’t have too many options at this point in time. We have to tighten control on our borders. Anything else would be construed as interference.”

ORF fellow Kabir Taneja had similar views. He wrote on X, “A tectonic shift in the region, and a fresh crisis headache for New Delhi.”

Others also note that it is highly unlikely that the new interim government, under the supervision of the Bangladeshi army, will share the same warmth and feelings as Hasina did with Modi and New Delhi.

With inputs from agencies