 "Now Bangladesh in turmoil: How political instability in neighbourhood affects India")
There goes the neighbourhood – again.
Sheikh Hasina, the ‘Iron Lady’ of Bangladesh, resigned as prime minister and left Bangladesh after the violent protests over the weekend.
The country has been engulfed by protests and violence that began last month after student groups demanded scrapping of a controversial quota system in government jobs.
Hasina in January won her fourth straight term as prime minister, though the opposition BNP boycotted the election.
But Hasina fleeing Bangladesh is just the latest example of political instability in southeast Asia.
Let’s take a closer look at the political instability in the neighourbhood and how it impacts India.
Bangladesh
Hasina resigned and fled the country on Monday after hundreds of people were killed in a crackdown on demonstrations that began as protests against job quotas and swelled into a movement demanding her downfall.
Jubilant, cheering crowds stormed into the opulent grounds of the presidential residence unopposed, carrying out looted furniture and TVs. One man balanced a red velvet, gilt-edged chair on his head. Another held an armful of vases.
Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced Hasina’s resignation in a televised address to the nation and said an interim government would be formed.
He called for peace and promised justice for those killed in weeks of unrest.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsHe said he had held talks with leaders of major political parties excluding Hasina’s long-ruling Awami League, and would soon meet President Mohammed Shahabuddin to discuss the way ahead.
“The country is going through a revolutionary period,” said Zaman, 58, who had taken over as army chief only on June 23.
“I promise you all, we will bring justice to all the murders and injustice. We request you to have faith in the army of the country. I take full responsibility and I assure you to not get disheartened,” he said.
“I request you all to be a little patient, give us some time and together we will be able to solve all the problems," Zaman added. “Please don’t go back to the path of violence and please return to non-violent and peaceful ways.”
The Border Security Force (BSF) on Monday issued a high alert along the India-Bangladesh border.
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, told ANI: “This pressure and the demonstrations were mounting. Clearly, the government there was under pressure. The Army, which is a powerful institution in that country, must have stepped in some way, if it is true that she has resigned, and told her that things are bad…”.
The former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh warned that “it is also not good for the region. India will be watching what is going to happen.”
According to BBC, successive governments at the Centre supported Hasina in order to keep radical Islamists out of power.
Backing Bangladesh was also a way for New Delhi to counter China.
Which is why New Delhi will need to carefully consider what it does next as it will want to keep good relations with whomever assumes power in Dhaka, as per BBC.
As per NDTV, India has issued an advisory warning its citizens against travel to Bangladesh.
New Delhi has also advised its citizens to be in touch with the High Commission in Bangladesh.
Ties between India led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh led by Sheikh Hasina have entered a ‘golden chapter.’
As per Indian Express, Hasina’s exit means India has lost a reliable ally.
The outlet noted how New Delhi and Dhaka have worked together to combat terror groups that have made Bangladesh their home.
The outlet also noted that when the BNP-Jamaat or the army took power in Bangladesh, India has had a tough time with terror groups
“This situation could well arise again, and New Delhi cannot afford to have another front open when the LoC and the border with Pakistan is hot again, and the Indian Army is in a long standoff with the PLA in eastern Ladakh,” the outlet noted.
Pakistan
Pakistan today witnessed protests from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
This came as the party founder and former prime minister Imran Khan completed one year in prison.
The country in March witnessed Asif Ali Zardari being sworn in as Pakistan’s 14th President and Shehbaz Sharif take office as Prime Minister of Pakistan.
The developments came weeks after an uncertain national election caused delays in the formation of a coalition government.
The February 8 election was marred by a mobile internet shutdown, arrests and violence in its build-up and the unusually delayed results triggered accusations that the vote was rigged.
Candidates backed by Khan gained the most seats but the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) agreed to form a coalition government.
The PML-N is spearheaded by Shehbaz Sharif’s elder brother, three time premier Nawaz Sharif, but he decided not to take the prime minister’s post.
Pakistan has been going through an economic crisis with inflation rampant and unemployment skyrocketing.
New Delhi has been letting events in Islamabad play themselves out.
“The current crisis in Pakistan, in my view, reaffirms the policy direction put in place by the Indian government — a studied aloofness, or low-grade hostility,” Amit Julka, an assistant professor of International Relations at Ashoka University in New Delhi, earlier told DW.
“The civilian government [in Pakistan] has lost its legitimacy due to economic problems, and the military stands discredited and is quite confused about its own direction,” Julka said.
Nepal
Nepal, meanwhile, has witnessed the instability of the past decade and a half continue.
The country has witnessed 14 governments in the past 16 years after the Republican system was introduced
In July, KP Sharma Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) took power for the fourth time.
Oli took office after the coalition government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ lost a vote of confidence in Parliament.
Oli is most likely to choose Thailand as the destination of his first foreign trip, breaking the tradition of visiting a neighbouring country first.
In the past, Nepalese Prime Ministers mostly paid visits to India first, with some exceptions of choosing China as their first destination.
Political developments in Kathmandu are watched closely by rivals New Delhi and Beijing that pour development aid and infrastructure investment into Nepal and jostle for geopolitical influence.
Oli took Nepal closer to China by signing a transit agreement with Beijing in his first term in 2015-2016, ending India’s monopoly over landlocked Nepal’s foreign trade.
As per South East Asia monitor, India has thus far adopted a wait and watch approach.
The piece noted that India and Nepal have not moved forward with the landmark Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project (PMP).
“While electricity is divided equally, India gets the lion’s share of irrigation and flood control benefits. On the other hand, Kathmandu feels water is ‘white gold’ and India should pay Nepal for it,” the piece stated.
However, on the other hand, New Delhi refuses to accept Kathmandu’s contention as it goes against India’s other water treaties including the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.
Myanmar
Myanmar has been ruled by the military junta since 2021.
Today, three years after ousting Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in a dawn coup, Myanmar’s ruling generals are under unprecedented pressure.
An armed rebellion against military rule has been gaining ground amid a stalling economy.
A resistance movement was sparked by a violent crackdown on demonstrations following the February 2021 coup, as thousands of young protesters took up arms and combined forces with several established ethnic rebel groups to fight the military.
Myanmar’s junta has lost communications with senior officers at a major military base near the Chinese border, in a rare admission of battlefield failure after rebels announced they had taken control of the key regional army headquarters.
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) rebel group, which said on July 25 it had taken over the base but kept fighting to gain full control, posted photographs of its troops at the military stronghold in Lashio town on Saturday.
The loss of Lashio - the first of 14 regional military commands to fall to rebels - marks a major defeat for the junta, which last year suffered a succession of stinging losses in northern Shan state near the Chinese border.
“The rapid fall of the Myanmar army’s Northeastern Command makes it fully clear to the ranks of the resistance and to neighboring countries just how weak the Myanmar military has become,” said Jason Tower at United States Institute of Peace.
“For Min Aung Hlaing, the implications are existential,” he said, referring to the embattled junta chief. “The fall of Lashio could prove to be the beginning of the end.”
India in February decided to cancel the Free Regime Movement (FMR) between the two nations, as per The Print.
India also decided to fence its 1,643 kilometre border with Myanmar.
As per the outlet, Myanmar is pivotal for New Delhi’s plans to increase its influence in Southeast Asia particularly among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, through its Act East Policy.
According to The Print, the junta has also been unable to live up to its promise to help the Indian Army fighter insurgents on its border – thus having dire implications for India’s national security.
It has also caused India’s North East, particularly Mizoram and Manipur, to face an influx of refugees – thus burdening their natural resources as well as causing security issues.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka too has been facing a dire economic crisis and been racked by nationwide protests.
Two years ago, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, much like Hasina, resigned and fled the country after demonstrators flooded into his residence.
Rajapaksa’s successor Ranil Wickremesinghe – who has already been Sri Lankan prime minister five times – of the United National Party (UNP) was essentially a compromise candidate.
Now, after a long wait, Wickremesinghe announced elections will take place as the country limps back to normalcy.
General and presidential elections are slated to occur in September and October.
Wickremesinghe will be facing a challenge from Wijeyedasa Rajapakshe as well as the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna.
Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh told Deccan Herald, “He is a one-MP regime and it remains to be seen how things pan out for Ranil. His friends, especially the Western world and India, are already worried about the return of Rajapaksas to office through their proxies. This is not an impossible scenario as these forces have long controlled and dominated Sri Lankan politics.”
With inputs from agencies
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
