 "Is Ukraine losing its last bargaining chip in war as Russia advances in Kursk?")
Ukraine’s military is encountering a major setback in Russia’s Kursk region, as Russian forces, backed by North Korean troops, have launched intensified offensives, pushing Ukrainian forces out of key areas.
The rapid territorial losses come at a critical time, as Kyiv grapples with the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing following strained relations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump .
The Kursk region, which Ukraine captured in a surprise cross-border offensive in August last year, was seen as a strategic bargaining chip in future peace talks. However, the region is now slipping from Kyiv’s control, raising concerns over Ukraine’s military position in the broader conflict.
According to Ukrainian military blogger Bohdan Myroshnykov, the situation is becoming increasingly precarious. “The situation in the Kursk region is very difficult and could turn into a disaster if we don’t act urgently to clear the logistical routes,” he wrote, according to Financial Times.
Russian forces increase offensive; Sudzha under threat
Over the weekend, Russia significantly ramped up its offensive in Kursk, targeting the town of Sudzha, a critical logistical route for Ukraine’s military. Moscow’s defence ministry announced the capture of several villages , including Lebedevka, Konstyantynopil, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
DeepState, a Ukrainian war tracking group linked to the country’s defence ministry, confirmed the loss of Lebedevka, highlighting the growing challenge for Kyiv.
One of the most notable developments was a Russian infiltration through a gas pipeline that previously supplied Europe with Russian gas. Around 100 Russian soldiers, reportedly from Russia’s “Akhmat” battalion, used the underground pipeline to bypass Ukrainian defence lines and approach Sudzha.
Roman Alekhin, a Russian fighter from the battalion, posted pictures from inside the pipeline on his Telegram channel, stating, “It’s hard to describe what it means to walk through it for more than 15 km and spend 4 — 6 days inside without water or food.”
However, Ukrainian paratroopers managed to repel the surprise raid near Sudzha. Ukrainian soldier Myroslav Hai claimed the Russian troops were ambushed as they exited the pipeline, resulting in significant casualties on the Russian side.
Despite this success, Ukraine’s military warned that the continuous attacks and the deteriorating road infrastructure could compromise their defensive capabilities.
“The Russians used a gas pipeline to deploy an assault company undetected by drones and wedged themselves into our combat formations,” wrote Ukrainian military blogger Yuriy Butusov. Although the pipeline is now under constant surveillance, Russia’s intensified use of infiltration tactics has posed new challenges for Kyiv’s defence.
Zelenskyy’s leverage in negotiations weakening
Ukraine’s control of the Kursk region has long been viewed as a key bargaining chip in potential peace talks with Russia. However, the recent territorial losses have drastically weakened Ukraine’s negotiation position. Zelenskyy has repeatedly highlighted the importance of holding Kursk, stating that it could influence future settlements with Moscow.
In light of the setbacks, Kyiv’s General Staff acknowledged that the situation was becoming “increasingly difficult” in Sudzha. Meanwhile, Ukrainian military bloggers warned that Russian and North Korean forces have gained a significant tactical advantage in the region.
“The enemy’s personnel and equipment are being struck, but their numbers keep growing,” a Russian military blogger wrote.
Adding to Kyiv’s concerns is the shutdown of intelligence sharing with the US and the looming threat of losing access to Elon Musk’s Starlink broadband satellite network.
Musk, who has been vocal about his stance on Ukraine, stirred controversy on X (formerly Twitter) by stating, “…my Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army. Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off.”
I literally challenged Putin to one on one physical combat over Ukraine and my Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army. Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 9, 2025
What I am sickened by is years of slaughter in a stalemate that Ukraine will…
Musk’s remarks sparked international backlash, with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski criticising the tech mogul for “threatening the victim of aggression.” Sikorski also warned that if Starlink proved unreliable, Poland would explore alternative satellite providers for Ukraine.
In response, Musk dismissed the criticism, asserting, “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink.”
Be quiet, small man.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 9, 2025
You pay a tiny fraction of the cost.
And there is no substitute for Starlink.
North Korean troops bolster Russian advances
A significant development in the Kursk conflict has been the deployment of 12,000 North Korean troops, bolstering Russia’s operational strength.
According to Ukrainian reports, North Korean reinforcements arrived in Kursk last November , replacing an initial batch of 11,000 soldiers who suffered heavy casualties. Their presence has amplified Russia’s ability to maintain pressure along the frontline.
“Our guys have acted brilliantly, especially on the tactical level,” Financial Times quoted a senior Ukrainian official said. “But it is a temporary stabilisation caused in good part by Russian exhaustion. They are going to regroup and attack again.”
Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council, expressed confidence in Russia’s success. Referring to the battlefield in Kursk, Medvedev stated, “The lid of the smoking cauldron is practically closed. The offensive continues. Carry on!”
US-Ukraine ties strained as peace talks loom
The deteriorating situation in Kursk comes just days before a crucial round of peace talks between Ukrainian and US representatives in Saudi Arabia.
On Tuesday, Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, is scheduled to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss future American support for Ukraine. However, Zelenskyy will not attend the negotiations.
A significant point of contention is Trump’s insistence that Ukraine should yield territory to Russia as part of a peace deal. During a recent interview with Fox News, Trump defended his decision to cut military aid to Kyiv, stating, “Well, it may not survive anyway.”
He also accused Zelenskyy of treating US financial assistance “like candy from a baby.”
The lack of US support has already begun to impact Ukraine’s frontline operations. Ukrainian intelligence units operating in Kursk have reported difficulties coordinating operations due to the suspension of US intelligence-sharing networks. Additionally, the prospect of losing access to Starlink has heightened Kyiv’s vulnerability.
A Ukrainian intelligence officer warned on Telegram, “Our drone strikes, communication networks, and reconnaissance depend heavily on Starlink. If it goes offline, our entire frontline could collapse.”
However, Musk later clarified on X that he would never intentionally disable Starlink, stating, “We would never use it as a bargaining chip.”
Ukrainian troops at risk of encirclement
The most pressing concern for Ukraine is the possibility of Russian forces encircling Ukrainian troops in Kursk. As Russian forces close in on Sudzha and key supply routes, Ukrainian troops risk being cut off from the rest of the country.
The capture of Lebedevka and Konstyantynopil has significantly shortened the distance between Russian forces and Ukraine’s defensive lines.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that around 30,000 Ukrainian troops are currently stationed in Kursk. Should Russia fully recapture the region, these troops would either face surrender or heavy casualties.
“It’s not really a counteroffensive anymore, we are simply trying to hold the line,” said Ukrainian blogger Oleksandr Karpyuk.
The situation remains volatile, with Russia launching new offensives daily.
Despite Ukraine’s success in repelling Russian infiltration through the gas pipeline, the broader picture remains grim. Kyiv is now racing against time to prevent a total collapse in Kursk before upcoming peace negotiations in Riyadh.
With inputs from agencies
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