Explained: What Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory means for Turkey and the world

The Erdogan era is here to stay. With the results of the runoff elections on Sunday in Turkey, strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his place as the nation’s most consequential politician, and one of the world’s most resilient and longest-serving leaders. According to unofficial results from competing news agencies, the 69-year-old leader won 52 per cent of the votes compared with 48 per cent for his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu . The head of Turkey’s electoral board confirmed the victory, saying that even after accounting for outstanding votes, the result was another term for Erdogan. Following the results, Erdogan thanked the nation for giving him another five years, saying: “We hope to be worthy of your trust, as we have been for 21 years.” He further ridiculed his opponent, saying ‘Bye Bye Bye Kemal’, adding, “The only winner today is Turkey.” The result led to Erdogan supporters honking their cars, cheering and gathering in public squares with the leader booming out: “It is not only us who won, it is Turkey. “It is our nation that won with all its elements. It is our democracy.” Many analysts are shocked at Erdogan’s victory; he’s managed to win the elections despite the country’s economy – inflation is running at 50 per cent – and there has been anger over the government’s response to the powerful earthquakes in February that left at least 50,000 people dead. What his victory means for Turkey’s future as well as the world, including India, is now the question on many minds. We take a closer look at what it means. A more authoritarian rule? Most analysts say another five years of Erdogan would mean a more assertive and authoritative rule from the leader. Erdogan has been in power since 2003, first as prime minister and then since 2014 he has been president of Turkey. In his years of rule, he has consolidated his power through constitutional changes, eroded the country’s democratic institutions, including the judiciary and media, and jailed many opponents. He has crushed anti-government protests and evaded a corruption investigation into his inner circle. Such has been his crackdown that in its World Report 2022, Human Rights Watch said Erdogan’s AK party (AKP) has set back Turkey’s human rights record by decades. Sweden’s V-Dem Institute has designed the country as one of the world’s top 10 autrocratising countries and in 2018, Freedom House had downgraded the country’s status from “partly free” to “not free.” With this result, Ilke Toygür, professor of European Geopolitics at the University Carlos III of Madrid, said to Euronews that he would buckle down even more. “I would even expect the more frightening attitudes when it comes to democracy and when it comes to foreign policy.” Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, also told TIME magazine, “For Turkey, Erdogan’s third and final term will mean a continuation of today.” [caption id=“attachment_12659382” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Erdogan may push for a stronger Islamic influence in the nation after he sealed his fifth term. AP[/caption] Analysts also believe that Erdogan may push for a stronger Islamic influence in the nation. Before he became president, Turkey was staunchly secular, so much so that the wearing of headscarves by women was banned in many official venues. But he has steadily pushed the nation into a more religious sphere. His government may come under pressure from these parties to pursue more Islamist policies. In his regime, he has expanded religious education and transformed the Hagia Sophia , Turkey’s most famous historic landmark, from a museum into a mosque. A five-year rule for Erdogan also means the more of the same in economic policy. Turkey, presently, is suffering from record levels of inflation at 50 per cent, a currency that has lost nine-tenths of its value over the past decade and a tanking economy. However, Erdogan has turned economic wisdom on its head, orchestrating interest rate cuts — exactly what economists said was the wrong prescription for the problem. The result: prices of everyday goods have climbed, and on the international markets, the Turkish currency, the lira, has collapsed. **Also read: Winners and losers of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two-decade rule in Turkey** What will be the global consequences? Erdogan’s win will also have far-reaching effects and the consequences of his triumph won’t be confined to Turkey alone. One thing is certain: Erdogan’s win in Turkey will be cheered in Moscow. During his time in power, Turkey has forged closer ties with Vladimir Putin-led Russia. He has conducted a diplomatic “balancing act” since Russia invaded Ukraine, opposing Western sanctions on Russia, while at the same time sending drones to Kyiv. In a recent interview with CNN, Erdogan hailed his “special relationship” with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. In that interview, Erdogan was quoted as saying, “We are not bound by the West’s sanctions. We are a strong state and we have a positive relationship with Russia. Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible.” [caption id=“attachment_12659412” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Supporters of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate in Kahramanmaras after his win in the runoff elections. AP[/caption] His win will also have repercussions for NATO. Erdogan has stood in the way of NATO expansion – he held up Finland’s NATO membership and only dropped his objections earlier this year. Moreover, he continues to block Sweden ’s entry into the transatlantic alliance on claims that claims that Stockholm harbours Kurdish activists tied to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a group both Turkey and the United States consider a terrorist organisation. As experts note, Erdogan does not want to completely break with the West, he just wants to do things his own way. He will probably continue to have a contentious and quarrelsome relationship with the West. “Turkey is breaking away from the West, although it is a NATO member spiritually, Turkey is not a part of NATO anymore,” said economist Arda Tunca to Euronews. Merve Tahiroğlu, Turkey program director at the Project on Middle East Democracy explains to Vox that Erdogan’s foreign policy vision is entirely about making Turkey great again.” Erdogan’s triumph will also have lasting consequences for the estimated 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. Erdoğan noted that his government’s plans to build hundreds of thousands of homes in northern Syria would facilitate their voluntary return. What about India? Beyond NATO and the West, Erdogan’s victory will also be closely watched by diplomats in South Block of New Delhi. India’s relationship with Turkey has been stunted due to Ankara’s position on Kashmir, which is aligned with Pakistan’s and Erdogan has pushed this even further. Erdogan’s Turkey has been no friend of India – he continues his attacks against New Delhi regarding the condition of India’s Muslim community to his strong pro-Pakistan position in regard to the Kashmir question. And despite India providing aid to Turkey during the earthquakes, it can’t rely on Erdogan to tone down the rhetoric and even improve ties. As News9 notes, he may choose to reduce or blunt his anti-India rhetoric at the moment, there is every indication that he will return to it at the precise moment when it serves his ambitions and political goals. What may happen in the future is uncertain, but one thing is definite: Erdogan has shown that he knows how to work a room and retain power. With inputs from agencies Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.