Rajasthan Results: What is state’s ‘revolving door’ policy that suggests BJP will win?

It’s counting day. As early leads start to pour in for the four states which voted last month, it’s a test of nerves in Rajasthan. The desert state has a political history of picking alternate parties – it’s called the ‘revolving door’ policy. The question that everyone is asking is if Congress’ Ashokh Gehlot will be able to break the incumbent jinx. The counting of votes for the 200-member Rajasthan assembly began at 8 am Sunday. Assembly Elections 2023 Results LIVE: BJP comfortably leads in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, MP; Congress leads in Telangana What is the ‘revolving door’ policy? The state has been ruled by no other party than the Congress and BJP. Janata Dal was in power in the state when the BJP was part of it. Since 1993, when BJP’s Bhairon Singh Shekhawat returned as chief minister, the power in the state has switched between Congress and BJP. Voters in the state have not elected the same party for two terms in a row for decades now. This is the biggest challenge for Congress and the biggest advantage for the BJP. Since 1998, elections have been dominated by Gehlot and Vasundhara Raje Scindia – they have been winning the top post alternatively. Gehlot has been the face of the Grand Old Party and faced his biggest challenge from within the party by his former deputy Ashok Gehlot. Raje, who assumed office in 2003, remains the tallest leader of the BJP in the state. However, over the past five years, she has been systematically sidelined. Also read: Who is winning, who is losing in Rajatshan? What happened in the 2018 and 2013 Rajasthan Assembly elections? In 2018, Rajasthan stuck to its political tradition of voting the incumbent out. Congress emerged as the largest party in the state with 100 seats, short of the majority by one seat. The BJP, which was in power, won 73 seats, much lower compared to the previous election, in which it won an absolute majority of 163 seats. The Congress formed the government with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which had six MLAs, and Ashok Gehlot took over as the chief minister. In the 2013 elections, BJP defeated the Congress. It won a record 163 seats in the 200-member assembly. This was the best performance of the party in the state. What do early leads say about Rajasthan? There are 200 seats in the Rajasthan Assembly and polling was held in 199 seats, as the election in Karanpur constituency was adjourned due to the death of a Congress candidate. The halfway mark is 100. The saffron party hopes to consolidate the anti-incumbency sentiment this year. Early trends show the BJP leading in the state with the Congress lagging. The Election Commission of India website shows the BJP leading in 109 seats and the Congress in 72. According to CNN-News18, the BJP has crossed the halfway mark, leading in 109 seats with the Congress in 74. However, these are trends and are likely to change as counting progresses.

Who are the big players in Rajasthan? Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot are the big names in Congress. The two have been engaged in a power tussle but the feud has been on the backburn for weeks leading to the elections. They appear united for now for the cause of the party. Early trends show Gehlot leading in the Sardarupur constituency and Pilot trailing in Tonk. Rajasthan Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra is trailing from Lachhmangarh Constituency. [caption id=“attachment_13458682” align=“alignnone” width=“617”] Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot during a public meeting ahead of the state Assembly elections, at Luni, in Jodhpur district on 22 November. Will he be able to break the incumbency jinx? File photo/PTI[/caption] In the BJP, the big names former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore. Raje, fighting from Jhalrapatan is leading while Rathore is trailing for Jhotwara. These trends are also likely to change. BJP’s Mahant Balak Nath, called the “Yogi of Rajasthan” is trailing from from Tijara, according to early trends. Diya Kumari, often dubbed as the new royal who may replace Raje, is also trailing, from Vidhyadhar Nagar.

#WATCH | Rajasthan BJP cadre celebrate party's lead in state elections, in Jaipur pic.twitter.com/WzqB4lVrZe

— ANI (@ANI) December 3, 2023

What did exit polls predict about Rajasthan? Exit polls gave the BJP had edge over the Congress in Rajasthan. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat survey has anticipated a maximum of 110 seats for the saffron party, while the Congress could win between 90 to 100 seats. With anywhere between 94 to 114 seats, ABP News-C Voter predicts a clear majority for the BJP, with Congress winning between 71 to 91 seats. Jan Ki Baat has given an upper margin to the BJP of 122 seats while reducing the Grand Old Party to 62-85 seats. The exit poll results of Dainik Bhaskar point to a close contest between the Congress and the BJP, predicting 85-95 seats for the former and 98-105 seats for the saffron party. It is only the India Today-Axis My India exit poll that indicated a victory for the Congress with a maximum of 106 seats. The saffron party could get anywhere between 80-100 seats, the exit poll says.

Who will be Rajasthan CM if the BJP wins? Former CM Raje’s name takes centre stage as the possibility of BJP’s win is discussed. Will she secure the CM’s seat for the third time? Political experts say that if the saffron party comfortably crosses the majority, it could be the end of Raje’s chief ministerial aspirations. However, if the BJP wins 90 and the 199 seats and Raje loyalists from the party and Independents secure big victories, she could be in a stronger position to make her demand. She could argue that she could play a pivotal role in government formation with the help of MLAs in her camp and Independents. [caption id=“attachment_13458752” align=“alignnone” width=“596”] BJP’s Vasundhara Raje visits a temple on 2 December, a day before the counting of votes in Rajasthan. @VasundharaBJP/X[/caption] The BJP, so far, has not committed to who the CM could be. Raje’s colleague Rathore was confident that his party would win in the state. He said that the fight was between the “massive governance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’ and the “misgovernance of Congress”. When asked about the CM if the party wins, he told NDTV that the leadership would announce once the results were out. “Everything comes at the right time. Once the results are out, the party leadership will decide. It is a team effort, a collective effort, somebody will lead. Party will decide at the right time,” he was quoted as saying by the news channel. With inputs from agencies