PM Modi lands in Moscow for 2-day visit: What will he discuss with Vladimir Putin?

In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, throwing the region and the world order into peril. Now, two years into the war — amid efforts by other countries to play mediator between Moscow and Kyiv — India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia on a two-day visit (July 8-9) for the 22nd India-Russia annual summit that will review the entire range of multifaceted ties between the two countries.

After Russia , Modi will embark on a historic trip to Austria, marking the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to that country in 41 years, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said.

The Kremlin has said that PM Modi’s “very important and full-fledged visit” will be seen by the West jealously. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying: “They (the West) are jealous — that means they are closely monitoring it. Their close monitoring means they attach great importance to it. And they are not mistaken, there is something to attach great importance to.”

But what’s expected from this important visit? What’s the agenda on the table for the two world leaders? And what is the significance of the meet?

Modi-Putin meet

Last month, the Kremlin had announced that PM Modi would be visiting Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin. This would be the Indian PM’s first visit to Russia since the start of the war; the two leaders — Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi — had last met in Russia in 2019, in the far eastern port of Vladivostok. The two leaders also met in person in September 2022 in Uzbekistan, at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) bloc.

Before departing from New Delhi, PM Modi in a statement said: “I am embarking on an official visit to the Russian Federation for the 22nd Annual Summit and my first ever visit to the Republic of Austria over the next three days. I look forward to reviewing all aspects of bilateral cooperation with my friend President Vladimir Putin and sharing perspectives on various regional and global issues. We seek to play a supportive role for a peaceful and stable region.”

In Moscow, Modi will attend a private dinner hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Modi is also expected to meet the Indian community in Russia. PM Modi will also lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Solider in the Kremlin and visit an exhibition in Moscow.

From Russia, Modi will travel to Austria and call on Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen and hold talks with Chancellor Karl Nehammer.

Discussions galore

Ahead of his visit to Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told VGTRK, a Russian state-run television channel, that the program of Modi in Moscow will be “extensive” and the two leaders will be able to have “informal talks”.

“Obviously, the agenda will be extensive, if not to say overbusy. It will be an official visit, and we hope that the heads will be able to talk in an informal way as well… We are expecting a very important and full-fledged visit, which is so crucial for Russian-Indian relations,” Peskov was quoted as saying.

He further added that as Russia-India relations are at the level of “strategic partnership”, there would be both one-on-one talks in the Kremlin and those involving delegations.

Elaborating ahead of PM Modi’s departure, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra had said that issues of regional and global interest will be on the agenda of the talks between PM Modi and President Vladimir Putin.

When asked if the issue of the ongoing war would be raised, Kwatra said, “In all the past summits, even on the sideline meeting in Samarkand in 2022 the issues of regional and global importance of both countries are always taken up by the two leaders. You are very well aware of what PM spoke when he referred to the ongoing conflict between Russia, Ukraine in Samarkand.”

According to a report in The Hindu, official talks and delegation-level talks will focus on addressing trade and banking challenges due to western sanctions, the possibility of more predictable pricing and long-term contracts for Indian energy imports in oil and LNG, opportunities for investment, as well as connectivity projects like the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route, and the North Sea corridor.

Moreover, the trade imbalance between the two countries will also be up for discussion. In 2023-24, India’s exports to Russia were valued at $4 billion. However, Indian imports were close to $60 billion. This is one major aspect that will be looked into, said Kwatra in a press briefing too. When asked how this issue would be addressed, he said that attempts have to be made to raise the exports from India. “We will try that exports from India should increase as fast as possible, so that the trade imbalance can be rectified fast,” he said.

Reports citing officials also said that the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route will also feature in the talks between Modi and Putin. For the unaware, the Chennai-Vladivostok route covers a distance of approximately 5,600 nautical miles, or about 10,300 km. Once operational, it will enable faster movement of goods between India and Russia — taking travel time from the current 40 days to 24 days.

Apart from trade talks, discussions on defence ties will also be held. The Financial Express has reported that Putin and Modi will discuss the supply chain and production challenges that have led to the delay of the delivery of the S-400 Triumf air defence system. In 2018, the two countries had signed a deal to purchase five squadrons of the S-400 air defence system, with India receiving three squadrons, and the remaining two expected within the next 12-24 months.

There’s also talks that Modi’s visit will also give the two leaders an opportunity to discuss opportunities for joint space missions.

The issue of Indians in the Russian Army will also feature, as Modi will press for early discharge or even a full waiver of the processes for those wishing to return, as soon as possible, reported The Hindu.

Also read: As PM Modi leaves for Russia next week, military aviation remains biggest Indo-Russian ‘Bear Hug’

Significance of Modi-Putin visit

The Modi-Putin visit will be closely watched not just by India geopolitical experts but by people across the world as it assumes great significance. First and foremost, this visit comes even as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. India has maintained a tight balance between the two nations, refusing to take sides, with PM Modi speaking to both leaders and urging for some resolution between the two. In 2022, Modi had also said that today’s era is “not of war”.

Interestingly, while Modi visits Russia, heads of NATO countries will meet in a summit from July 9 to 11 in Washington. This has raised questions on the signal Modi is sending to the world on New Delhi’s position on the war. However, Kwatra has rejected any connection and said Modi’s visit was part of the calendar of summits between the two countries. “The bilateral visit this time is just a scheduling priority that we have undertaken and that’s what it is,” he told reporters at a briefing.

Some experts believe that Modi’s trip to Moscow could also help boost Putin’s image on the global platform. Currently, the Russian leader’s world travel is very curtailed owing to the arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for actions over the war in Ukraine.

“We kind of see Putin going on a nostalgia trip — you know, he was in Vietnam, he was in North Korea,” Theresa Fallon, an analyst at the Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies, was quoted as telling AP. “In my view, he’s trying to demonstrate that he’s not a vassal to China, that he has options, that Russia is still a great power.”

Some others also state that the visit is an attempt to send a message to China , who has been inching closer to Moscow in recent times. Chietigj Bajpaee, senior South Asia research fellow at the UK-based Chatham House, told AP that India is becoming increasingly estranged from forums in which Russia and China play a prominent role. “This is evident in India’s relatively low key presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year, and now the decision by Modi not to attend this year’s summit,” Bajpaee said.

It is left to be seen what materialises from Modi’s visit to Putin. We shall keep a close eye on it.

With inputs from agencies