The UK is now approaching its third Christmas of the COVID pandemic. And this year feels different. There’s little question we’re in a better position compared with 2020 and 2021. In 2020, Christmas plans were significantly curtailed, with a range of restrictions in place across the UK. But winter social mixing that took place before a full national lockdown was implemented in early January 2021 caused the number of deaths to
rise quickly, reaching levels similar to those in the first wave. At the same time a new variant, alpha,
was starting to spread. On a brighter note, the first vaccine doses were beginning to be
administered, offering hope for suppressing the pandemic. One year later, in December 2021, predictions were
more optimistic, with
70 per cent of the UK population having received two vaccine doses. But the spread of the omicron variant
threatened festive plans. A huge wave of cases followed and
quashed any notion that herd immunity may be achievable with this virus. But vaccinations
were successful in keeping numbers of deaths relatively low. As we approach our third COVID Christmas, there’s talk that we’re now “
post-pandemic”. But the virus is still very much
with us. So, how does the COVID outlook for this winter
differ from the previous two? Let’s look at some key factors which will determine how things might play out. Immunity When we’re infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), or when we are vaccinated, the immune system is primed to protect against future infections. The relative levels and duration of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, either attained through infection (“natural”), vaccination (“artificial”), or both (“hybrid”), are not completely clear. But
66 per cent of the world’s population is estimated to have some form of immunity against SARS-CoV-2. This immunity is more likely to provide protection against severe illness and death, but offers some protection against infection. In countries such as
the UK and
the US, more than 95 per cent of people currently have immunity (measured via antibodies),
up from five per cent in December 2020. There’s no doubt that the virus now has a lower chance of inflicting serious damage compared with two years ago. At the same time, the experience of the winter 2021-2022 wave
shows that vaccination alone is unlikely to eliminate the virus. In contrast to
smallpox,
rinderpest, and even
measles, we might need to learn to live with it. [caption id=“attachment_11806791” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] In 2020, Christmas plans were significantly curtailed, with a range of restrictions in place across the UK. Image used for representational purposes/Pixabay[/caption] A steady influx of
children born without exposure to COVID and waning immunity among adults is likely to fuel future waves. A changing virus In 2020 there was speculation that in contrast to other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 would not mutate fast enough
to cause problems after vaccination. This has proved wrong, and the rise of variants such as alpha, delta and, most recently, the subvariants of omicron, have shown their potential to
escape immunity from vaccination and prior infection. Since mid-2022, the virus has been spreading not as a single dominant variant but more as a
mixture of descendants. When transmission is high in winter, a new
dangerous variant might emerge and cause a large wave like a year ago. But at the moment there’s
no clear sign that this might be happening. Transmission To spread, SARS-CoV-2 must pass from an infected person to a susceptible one, travelling in tiny particles
through the air. Like other respiratory diseases, COVID spreads more when people mix indoors, like in schools, offices, or at Christmas parties. Lockdowns, self-isolation and masks have been
remarkably successful in slowing down the epidemic. But the economic and
social effects of lockdowns have been
controversial. As the vaccines currently
protect the majority of people from severe illness and death, there is little will for reintroducing the restrictions. But, the return to pre-pandemic contact levels is likely to keep COVID circulating for longer.
Ventilation,
masks, and strengthening our
immune systems are currently the best ways to counterbalance the effect of the increase in social contacts on COVID transmission. New year, new wave? Predictions of a large COVID wave
as we head into winter have so far not materialised. The
most likely scenario is that the small-scale outbreaks will continue throughout winter as COVID becomes “
endemic”. We might
already be seeing the beginning of a new wave with COVID infections and hospitalisations
rising in England since the beginning of December. China is currently the
biggest unknown as the country moves away from its
zero-COVID policy. It remains to be seen to what extent
large wave of infections there might spill over to the rest of the world. The impact of multiple infections could be the biggest problem the UK and similar countries face in the future. We now know each reinfection adds a risk of developing
serious health complications and
long COVID. We may well be able to enjoy more freedoms this Christmas than we could the past two years. But individual people and
societies will be feeling the
effects of the COVID pandemic for many months, if not years, to come.
This article is republished from
The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the
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As we approach our third COVID Christmas, there is speculation that we have reached ‘post-pandemic’ status. However, the virus is still present. So, how does this winter’s COVID outlook differ from the previous two? Let’s take a look at some of the key factors that will influence how things play out
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