One year of Russia-Ukraine war: What has happened thus far, what could happen next

On 24 February, 2022, Russia announced that it is invading Ukraine. Three days prior, President Vladimir Putin in a televised address claimed the sovereign nation was an ‘integral part’ of Russian history. Announcing that he would deploy ‘peacekeeping’ forces to the region, Putin signed agreements to recognise three breakaway regions – Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). Let’s take a look at the key moments in the Ukraine war and what could happen next: On 24 February, 2022, President Putin authorised “special military operations” in eastern Ukraine and asks Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms in a televised address. Russian forces begin missile and artillery attacks on Ukrainian forces and air bases, striking areas in major cities.

He says he wants to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, a former Soviet state, and demands a guarantee it will never join NATO.

A full-scale invasion starts with air and missile strikes on several cities. Zelenskyy pledges to stay in Kyiv to lead the resistance. The West imposes unprecedented sanctions on Russia, which are toughened over time. [caption id=“attachment_9316951” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] File image of Russian president Vladimir Putin. AP[/caption] The EU and US send arms to Ukraine, with the amount of aid pledged by Washington rising into the billions. Advances in south, but Kyiv holds In March, Russian troops attacked Ukraine’s south coast, seizing most of the strategic region of Kherson, crucial for agriculture, and close to the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula. Russian troops sought to surround the capital Kyiv and to take Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv in the northeast but face fierce resistance. A month into the fighting, Russia withdrew from the Kyiv area and northern Ukraine to focus on conquering the eastern industrial Donbas region, partly held by separatists, along with the south. In April, the corpses of dozens of civilians were found scattered on the street or buried in shallow graves in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, which Russian forces had occupied, sparking an international outcry. Similar grisly discoveries followed in other northern towns and Kyiv suburbs. Mariupol falls In May, Russia besieges and relentlessly bombards the strategic southeastern port city of Mariupol from the start of its invasion. The city becomes a symbol of the suffering caused by the war with bodies piling up in the cellars where residents hide out for weeks. On 21 May, Russia announces that it is in full control of the city, after the troops that held out for weeks at a steelworks surrender. Also in May, Sweden and Finland apply to become members of NATO, fearing they could be future targets of Russian aggression. In June, all eyes are on the Donbas, where Russia harnesses its superior firepower to conquer the city of Severodonetsk after one of the bloodiest battles of the war. Shortly after they take the neighbouring city of Lysychansk, as Ukraine pleads for more heavy weapons from the West. Grain unblocked, gas supplies cut 22 July: Kyiv and Moscow sign a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey to resume stalled grain exports from Ukraine, Europe’s so-called breadbasket, in a bid to relieve a global food crisis caused by Russia’s blockade of the country’s ports. The first official shipment of grain since the invasion leaves Odessa with 26,000 tonnes of maize 10 days later. The breakthrough on grain is overshadowed however by the escalating gas dispute between Russia and Europe. Russian energy giant Gazprom slashed its supply to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline before turning off the tap altogether, prompting fears of gas shortages this winter. Nuclear fears rise In August, concerns mounted over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, with constant shelling of the area raising the spectre of a nuclear disaster. UN inspectors visited the plant in early September and called for a security zone to be set up around it. As the US and EU stepped up their supplies of heavy weapons, Kyiv launched a major offensive to retake the city of Kherson in the south. Ukraine launches counter-offensive, Russia in retreat On 6 September, the Ukrainian forces launched a surprise counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, quickly forcing Russia to pull back from broad areas held for months.

 Russia appeared to have been caught off guard.

Kyiv says the area recaptured includes part of Izyum district, which sits on a vital supply route for Russian troops. On 21 September, Putin ordered mobilisation of 300,000 reservists. It is an unpopular move that prompted hundreds of thousands of Russian men to flee to neighbouring countries. At the same time, Russia hastily staged “referendums” in Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions on whether to become part of Russia. The votes are widely dismissed as a sham by Ukraine and the West. Nord Pipeline explosions On 26 September, explosions in Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were reported. Although filled with gas, neither pipeline at the time was supplying it to Europe. [caption id=“attachment_12194472” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] This file photo taken in September 2022, released by the Danish Defence Command, shows the gas leak at the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, AFP[/caption] The first explosion was recorded southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm. A second, stronger blast northeast of the island that night was equivalent to a magnitude-2.3 earthquake. Seismic stations in Denmark, Norway and Finland also registered the explosions. Just days later, on 30 September, Putin signed documents to annex the four regions at a Kremlin ceremony. Truck blows up bridge linking Crimea and Russia On 8 October, a truck laden with explosives blew up the bridge linking Crimea to Russia’s mainland in an attack that Putin blamed on Ukraine. Russia responded with missile strikes on Ukraine’s power plants and other key infrastructure. After the first wave of attacks on 10 October, the barrage continued a regular basis in the months that follow, resulting in blackouts and power rationing across the country. On 9 November, Russia announced a pullback from the city of Kherson under a Ukrainian counteroffensive, abandoning the only regional center Moscow captured. It is a humiliating retreat for the Kremlin. Ukraine strikes fresh blow, Zelenskyy visits US On 5 December, the Russian military says Ukraine used drones to target two bases for long-range bombers deep inside Russian territory. Another strike takes places later in the month, underlining Ukraine’s readiness to up the ante and revealing gaps in Russian defences. On 21 December, Zelenskyy visits the United States on his first trip abroad since the war began, meeting with President Joe Biden to secure Patriot air defense missile systems and other weapons and addressing Congress. Less than a fortnight later, on 1 January 2023, scores of freshly mobilized Russian soldiers are killed by a Ukrainian missile strike on the city of Makiivka.

Russia’s defence ministry said 89 troops were killed, while Ukrainian officials put the death toll in the hundreds.

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After months of ferocious fighting, Russia declared the capture of the salt-mining town of Soledar on 12 January, although Kyiv did not acknowledge it until days later. Moscow also pressed its offensive to seize the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut. On 14 January,  Russia launched another wave of strikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities. A Russian missile hits an apartment building in the city of Dnipro, killing 45. Hersh claims US behind Nord explosions, Biden visits Kyiv In February 2023, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reported that the US bombed the Nord Stream Pipelines. Hersh, the Pulitzer Prize winning reporter who has worked with The New York Times and The New Yorker claimed that President Joe Biden ordered the CIA carried out the covert operation in September. Hersh claimed US Navy divers, operating under cover of a NATO exercise, planted bombs to destroy three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, designed to carry Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea. [caption id=“attachment_12194482” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Pulitzer Prize- winning journalist Seymour Hersh. AFP[/caption] He quoted an anonymous source “with direct knowledge of the operational planning”. The White House dubbed the report “utterly false and complete fiction”. On 20 February, Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv where he met with the Ukrainian president in a remarkable and defiant display of solidarity. What happens next? Experts say neither side is close to winning though Ukraine is faring better than Russia. According to The Guardian, this is down to the West continuously providing arms and ammunitions to Ukraine. However, that leaves Kyiv potentially vulnerable in the east, according to EU’s head of foreign affairs Josep Borrell. The much-ballyhooed battle tanks are also unlikely to bring the war to a quick end, as per the newspaper. So does that mean that peace could be a possibility? That’s unlikely. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday told AFP the security alliance must be prepared for the conflict with Russia to last “many, many years”, beyond the immediate invasion of Ukraine. Activist Almut Rochowanski told Al Jazeera, “I don’t see this conflict ending anytime soon. There is no path to outright victory for either side. Neither is there recognition on either side that they want a political process, nor a conviction in the West that such a process would now be in their or Ukraine’s best interest, nor a consistent indication that Russia is prepared for meaningful negotiations.”

Which means those in Ukraine best brace for a lot more bloodshed.

British foreign secretary Ben Wallace recently told The Sun the world should prepare itself for “Russians to step up their indiscriminate targeting of civilian areas.” Putin “will lash out and kill more innocent people,” Wallace added. And what about Putin himself? Though many people have speculated about if Putin’s position at the head of Russia is tenable given how the war is going, Russian journalist Farida Rustamova told Al Jazeera his status is “as stable as it’s ever been.” “His security apparatus, which he uses to uphold his power in Russia, hasn’t changed a bit. He feeds them well, raises their wages and gives them all sorts of other perks. This can be seen with the record budget for security defence for the next few years. No serious opposition that could crack his hold on power can be seen at this moment in Russia,” Rustamova said. If you don’t believe Rustamova, just listen to what Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with state media – that Western events marking the anniversary “will not turn out to be the only events that will gain the world’s attention”. But what about India? A piece in the Indian Express piece noted India’s difficulties in maintaining a balancing act. “India needs Russia to remain an autonomous power in the Eurasian landmass, one that will not accept Chinese geopolitical hegemony. An economically collapsed Russia as a Chinese satellite is the last thing Delhi would want,” the piece stated. The peace also pointed to NSA AK Doval’s trip to Moscow and a meeting with Putin – Russia’s president not being known for meeting foreign dignitaries. “Did Doval convey to Putin that it is time to find a way out of this dead end quickly? Though the proceedings of their meeting have remained under wraps, the two would not have met only to exchange pleasantries or to discuss the weather,” the piece concluded. With inputs from agencies Read all the  **Latest News** ,  **Trending News** ,  **Cricket News** ,  **Bollywood News** , **India News**  and  **Entertainment News**  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.