‘We’d be better off with Russia’: What’s going on in Moldova, the small country neighbouring Ukraine?

It’s a tiny nation bordering Ukraine’s west and it finds itself divided over the Russia-Ukraine war. Last week, Moldovan president Maia Sandu accused the Kremlin of plotting a coup to overthrow the country’s pro-European leadership. Now, protests fanned by a pro-Russia party have engulfed Moldova with calls for Russia to take over.

What are the protests about?

The protests in Moldova are organised by a recently formed group called Movement for the People (consisting of “political forces, public associations, local elected officials and civic activists”) and backed by members of Moldova’s Russia-friendly Shor Party, which holds six seats in the former Soviet republic’s 101-seat legislature, according to a report by The Associated Press (AP). The stir comes days after Sandu’s allegations of the coup.

Hundreds and thousands of protesters gathered in the capital Chisinau, demanding that the country’s new pro-Western government cover citizen’s winter heating bills as inflation skyrockets. Many of the demonstrators were brought to the city in buses; the expenses were paid by the Shor Party.

In Moldova, energy bills consume more than 70 per cent of household income, according to the president, reports the BBC.

“We’re a laughing stock… the government is mocking us,” a protester Alla told the BBC. “When we elected this government, they promised to raise salaries and pensions, but so far we haven’t seen a penny.”

According to Ala, half of her pension is used to pay off the bills.

Residents of Chisinau, Moldova, among them supporters of the Shor opposition party, staged a rally against the new government and the increase in energy tariffs, chanting 'down with Maia Sandu'. pic.twitter.com/pKATAb56Lp

— RT (@RT_com) February 21, 2023

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Moldova, sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, depends on Russia for gas. The country has a pro- Russia separatist region of Transnistria. Last year, Moscow cut off the gas supply to the country by half to pressure the Moldovan government, as it seeks to hold together its Romanian and Russian-speaking populations, according to the BBC.

A series of anti-government protests initiated by the Shor Party rocked Moldova during the fall as a severe energy crisis gripped the country. The demonstrations against rising prices of electricity and gas continue.

What do protesters think of Russia?

Some of the demonstrators who converged on Chisinau on Sunday called for the resignation of the country’s president, chanting “Down with Maia Sandu!” Others held placards with the faces of some of Moldova’s leaders and politicians placed next to photographs of large homes and fancy cars.

Marina Tauber, the general secretary of Shor Party, who led the protest outside parliament on Sunday, said that her party was not opposed to the European Union (EU) and wanted good relations with all sides.

However, there are some from the party who support Russia’s intervention. Shor Party councillor Iurie Berenchi told the BBC, “With Russia, we’d be much better off than we are now.”

He was not alone. When Ala and other protesters were asked about the fear of Russia infiltrating, as alleged by the president, they told the publication, “We want them to come here. We want to be part of Russia!”

Eight people were arrested for the protest.

The Shor Party accused authorities of mobilising thousands of police officers to thwart Sunday’s demonstration and “stop people from entering” the capital.

Also read: How Transnistria, a small breakaway region in Moldova, poses a threat to Ukraine

How dangerous is Shor Party?

The Opposition party is led by Ilan Shor, a fugitive oligarch who is currently in Israel in exile. He was convicted of involvement in the theft of $1bn from Moldova’s banking system and sanctioned by the United States and the United Kingdom last October, reports the BBC.

The US state department sanctioned him for working for Russian interests. Shor worked with “corrupt oligarchs and Moscow-based entities to create political unrest in Moldova” and to undermine the country’s bid to join the EU, the US says.

Why is the president wary of Russia?

On 13 February, the Moldovan president accused Russia of plotting to use foreign “saboteurs” to overthrow her pro-EU government.

Her comments came days after Natalia Gavrilita resigned as the prime minister citing “many crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine”. Sandu nominated a new PM, Dorin Recean, who is pro-EU like his predecessor.

The allegations against Russia were first made by Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier in the month. He warned that Ukrainian intelligence agencies have uncovered “a detailed Russian plan to undermine the political situation in Moldova”.

According to Sandu, the Kremlin planned to send citizens of Russia, Belarus, Montenegro and Serbia into Moldova to trigger protests to “change the legitimate government to an illegal government controlled by the Russian Federation”, reports CNBC.

“The purpose of these actions is to overturn the constitutional order, to change the legitimate power from Chisinau to an illegitimate one that would put our country at Russia’s disposal to stop the European integration process, but also so that Moldova can be used by Russia in its war against Ukraine,” Sandu added.

She also said that Russia had already attempted to destabilise the situation in Moldova using the energy crisis, which “was expected to cause major discontent among the population and lead to violent protests”.

Since her allegations, 57 people from nations friendly to Russia including a group of Serbian football fans and several boxers from Montenegro were denied entry to Moldova in the past few days, after checks by security services, reports the BBC. The country’s airspace was unexpectedly closed for several hours last week.

What does Russia have to say?

Russia rejected the accusation that Moscow was planning to destabilise the former Soviet republic. “Such claims are completely unfounded and unsubstantiated,” Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

Montenegro and Serbia also reacted to the accusations and called on the Moldovan government to provide more information. However, Russia’s closest ally Belarus has not remarked on the allegations publicly.

How real is the threat from Russia?

Matthew Orr, lead Eurasia analyst at risk intelligence firm Rane, described Moldova’s current pro-EU government — in power since 2021 — as unprecedented and a threat to the Russian regime, reports CNBC.

Last year, analysts warned that Moscow may attempt to recognise Moldova’s pro-Russian region as an independent state as it did with Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine ahead of the invasion.

Moldova has been strengthening ties with the EU and this has made the Kremlin unhappy. The tiny country also received EU candidate status along with Ukraine last June.

This has not gone down well with Moscow which “considers Moldova in its sphere of influence, as it did Ukraine and all other former Soviet states”, Orr told CNBC.

Moldova is getting closer to the EU. A proposal to offer it 145 million euros ($155 million) in funding from Brussels to sustain its economy is on the cards. It is also expected to hold talks with NATO on responding to Russian missiles, which entered its airspace recently.

While this might irk Russia, a full-blown invasion is not expected. Clinton Watts, a former fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC, that Russian interference in Moldova was likely part of its ongoing “manoeuvres” to distract Ukrainian forces and “keep the West off balance”.
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With inputs from agencies_

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